Stephon Marbury's great opportunity awaits in Boston

ON BASKETBALL

It's not official yet, but anyone who closely follows the NBA knows it will happen.

One of the most league's most despised, selfish, wasted talents on the roster of the league's defending champion — on a team made up of his opposites: "team guys" who would never put themselves before their teammates.

And yet, I have a very good feeling about this. I think it will work (yes, I'm assuming it will happen) — both for the Celtics and Stephon Marbury.

That doesn't mean they'll win the NBA title together or even get past the conference finals, but losses on the court are as bad as things will get.

Marbury, to me, is not a bad person or even a naturally bad teammate. He's not irrevocably damaged. Rather, he is in need of direction. He needs to be a follower before he can become a respected leader.

At each of his NBA stops, he's been asked to run the team, be the starting point guard. Of course, as talented as he is, it made perfect sense. There was no way Mr. Big Time was coming off the bench or following the example of another player.

He was paid too much. His ego was too big.

And he played in a "players league." So as hard as the Don Caseys of the world might have tried to fine-tune Marbury into a winning point guard, he never had to listen, he never had to ride in the backseat.

That will all change in Boston. And that is the reason why this experiment has a great chance of not only landing the Celtics Banner 18, but rejuvenating Marbury's losses-infested career.

As a Celtic, he will ride the bench. It won't matter how well he plays — he's not getting budding starRajon Rondo's spot.

As a Celtic, he will be asked to follow one of the most voluble, intimidating leaders in the league, Kevin Garnett. This will not be like their ill-fated time spent together in Minnesota.

Then, they were both young and unproven. Neither player's career had taken off to the point of making him that much better, that much more proven and trustworthy than the other guy.

So Marbury, immature and full of himself, left Minneapolis as part of a bitter divorce. No one expected he'd ever reunite with K.G.

But now Garnett has all the power over his former teammate. He's the certain Hall-of-Famer. He's the man with the NBA title. He's got the ears of all his teammates.

He'll gain another set of ears as soon as Marbury's plane touches down. Screw up in Garnett's mind, and he'll be done before he can walk the Freedom Trail.

Experiments like this aren't new to New England sports. Not too long ago, the New England Patriots brought in controversial wide receiver Randy Moss. And even before that, they signed much-maligned running back Corey Dillon.

Under the killer eye of Bill Belichick, who doesn't blink when cutting players, Dillon never caused a problem and won a Super Bowl at the end of the 2004 season. Moss, meanwhile, has been nothing short of brilliant — and on his best behavior.

Doc Rivers might not be Belichick, but the makeup of an NBA team is more about the players than the coach. Even Belichick, with his iron fist, couldn't have handled the Knicks of a couple years ago.

The Celtics get it. Everyone, from Garnett to Ray Allen to Finals MVP Paul Pierce to youngsters Rondo and Kendrick Perkins, understands what the team is about and what its ultimate mission is.

There's no way a battered, bruised Stephon Marbury could mess that up even if he tried.

And he won't. Because even if a championship isn't important to him — and I doubt that — he knows that the only way to land a decent contract after the season is by being on his best behavior and doing what the Celtics ask of him.

So whether he plays 30 or 10 minutes a game (and I'm leaning toward the latter), don't expect to see the typical Marbury Pout while he sits on the bench once he moves one big city up the East Coast.

In fact, by learning from some of the game's best — both talent-wise and leadership-wise — he might change. He might become capable of running a winning basketball team next season, of being a winning starter for the first time.

To do something right, you have to see it and observe it first, right?

Marbury just turned 32. Maybe he'll be a late learner. ... Or maybe not.

But the marriage in Boston, even if brief, should be a peaceful one.

Chad Johnson might regret trade

ON FOOTBALL

It wouldn't be an NFL offseason without a prominent wide receiver complaining, so I'd like to thank Chad Johnson for filling that role.

Ever since he danced, skipped and preened onto the NFL's big screen, the Cincinnati wideout has gotten a free pass from the media and fans. Unlike Terrell Owens, Johnson has not been ripped for his excessive post-touchdown celebrations -- even if they cost his team 15 yards.

The reason? He's still been a team player, not doing anything to damage the Bengals' chemistry. He hasn't bashed his quarterback -- like T.O. did in Philly -- or performed situps in his driveway in front of multiple T.V. cameras (another T.O. favorite).

Until now. With his actions this offseason, Johnson has followed T.O.'s lead. Or maybe he's picking up where the Cowboys receiver left off, since Owens has been on his best behavior lately -- even crying while defending his quarterback in January.

The past couple months, Johnson has hinted that he wants out of Cincinnati, but he never came out and made himself clear until Wednesday. He said all the cliches about wanting to be on a winning team, and on and on. He made a humorous appearance on "SportsCenter," during which the ESPN anchor asked him what he wanted to talk about.

Now, however, Johnson has made himself lucid -- life with the Bengals just isn't going to cut it for him anymore. Cincinnati, of course, has no plans to trade its No. 1 receiver -- a smart move -- which should make things interesting in the months leading up to the season. That's because Johnson said Wednesday he won't "report to anything."

I don't think Johnson realizes how good he has it in Cincinnati. Sure, the Bengals are coming off a poor season and haven't made the playoffs in two years. But look around the league, Chad. Only 12 teams make the postseason every year. Would you rather be on the Lions or Cardinals?

If Johnson is trying to pull a Randy Moss and get dealt to New England, he's out of his mind. It's not happening.

Johnson said Carson Palmer was wrong for saying Johnson had told him he'd attend June's minicamp. Palmer is the last guy Johnson wants to start a beef with. More than likely, he'll be throwing passes to Johnson in 2008. And most of the time, those passes will be right on the money.

Answer me this, Chad: How many NFL quarterbacks are as good as yours, are as adroit at hitting receivers in stride as yours? To further the question, how many of those quarterbacks would you have an outside chance of playing with?

Let's see. ... Tom Brady is out. Peyton Manning has plenty of receivers in Indy. That basically takes care of the AFC. In the NFC, Brett Favre is retired (at least for now). With T.O. in Dallas, you're not joining Tony Romo there. Maybe you could play with Drew Brees in New Orleans, but the Saints are no playoff lock. Ditto for Donovan McNabb and the Eagles and even Super Bowl champ Eli Manning and the Giants.

Johnson could hook up with Marc Bulger in St. Louis, but -- wait -- what was the Rams' record last season?

Johnson isn't helping himself, or his team, with this bonanza. If he would focus on simply playing football and helping his team win, the Bengals could be a playoff team in '08.

Seriously.

They won seven games a year ago. Add three wins, and they're playing in January. And we all know what can transpire in the postseason.

Maybe there's more to the situation. I'm no insider. Maybe Johnson doesn't get along with coach Marvin Lewis or can't stand Palmer, which is hard to understand. From all indications, Palmer is the ultimate team player who is dedicated to getting things turned around in Cincy.

This situation is completely different from Moss' stay in Oakland. That marriage was broken from the beginning, and Moss needed a new home.

Johnson doesn't. What he needs is to get his head screwed back on and focus on playing the upcoming season -- and getting in the end zone so he can celebrate -- for the Bengals.

He still has a chance to save his reputation, to not be labeled another T.O. But that will go down the shoot if he keeps down the same road he's traveling on.

Super Bowl prediction: Don't be stupid, the Pats will win

ON FOOTBALL

I'm done going with the "sexy picks," enough with taking the underdogs, I'm through with trying to be "that guy."

The New England Patriots will win the Super Bowl. I "guarenSheed" it.

34-20. That'll be the score.

It will be 20-17 in the third quarter before New England pulls away with a touchdown late in the quarter and about midway through the fourth.

The perfect season complete, 19-0, champaign, blah, blah, blah.

Sure, it's the boring, predictable pick, but anyone outside of the Giants locker room — those guys have to think they can win; if they don't, it'll be 56-12 — who actually thinks New York will win has lost a few too many brain cells.

Go ahead, bring up Tom Brady's ankle. I'm telling you right now, it won't be a factor.

Go ahead, tell me how great the Giants' defensive front is. But, yeah, don't mention the best offensive line in football.

Go ahead, say the Giants' running game will bully the New England linebackers like scrawny kids on the playground. I'm sure Tedy Bruschi — with his three rings — and his boys are used to being underestimated.

I'm sorry for being so blunt, but I am tired of making the "unpopular pick," of taking a team because I have a feeling they're more "hungry" then the guys who have won on the big stage before.

Three years ago, I was silly enough to pick the Eagles over the Patriots. I remember doing some kind of debate with a fellow writer for my college paper. I think I mentioned Donovan McNabb's Campbell Soup ads as a reason Philly would win. I was dreadfully wrong as the soup, possibly, caused McNabb to fatigue in the final minutes ... and started the whole T.O.-McNabb tift ...and eventually led to T.O.'s dismissal from Philly.

So, I'm sorry, Eli, but your Oreo ad isn't going to lead your Giants to victory (nor will your "SportsCenter" brotherly love ad with Peyton).

Go ahead, talk about the Giants' momentum, about Manning's growth as a quarterback, about the Giants coming so close in the team's regular-season meeting. It doesn't matter. The Patriots are the better team and will find a way to win.

There's nothing else to predict. I don't know if Randy Moss will catch 12 balls or one. I don't know if Brady will throw zero interceptions or three. Both scenarios are possible, but as New England proved nearly two weeks ago, it can win ugly.

Maybe Plaxico Burress will be correct. Maybe New England will score just 17 points — although I'd bet this laptop and my kitchen counter on the Patriots scoring 20-plus points. But even if they do, it'll be more than the Giants put up.

I'm not going to address the "best team ever" argument. Not now at least. Who knows what would happen if Brady and Terry Bradshaw faced off?

But I think I watch enough football to know that these Patriots are better than these Giants in just about every phase of the game, and even if they give a B- performance, they'll come out on top.

Patriots 34, Giants 20.

I'm sticking to it even if Randy Moss eats some bad fish on Saturday night.

Stop kidding yourself otherwise.

NFL playoffs preview

ON FOOTBALL

I can't remember the last time there was as big a favorite entering the playoffs as there is this year.

New England is a 1-2 favorite to win the Super Bowl. The team with the second-best odds is Indianapolis, which has a 4-1 shot.

So, basically, people are pretty high on these Patriots. Guess that's what happens when you go 16-0.

But something tells me that these playoffs are going to be the craziest in quite some time. There will be upsets galore. Crazy weather. Heart-pumping finishes. Not just a unsympathetic romp to 19-0 by another Boston-based team.

I might be wrong. Heck, I'm probably wrong — picking against the Patriots is about as smart as wearing a T-shirt outside in Boston this time of year.

But what fun would it be picking the favorite? With that said, here's my playoffs preview:

WILD CARD ROUND

NFC

(6) Washington 27, (3) Seattle 20: Unlike in sports with longer seasons, such as the NBA, momentum means something entering the playoffs. No team – besides those 16-0 guys — has more of it than the Redskins.

(5) N.Y. Giants 24, (4) Tampa Bay 18: Speaking of momentum, the Giants played their best game a week ago. Now, Eli Manning will step up in the playoffs and finally lead them to the divisional round.

AFC

(3) San Diego 27, (6) Tennessee 10: The teams' first meeting was a battle, but the Titans' injury list is almost as long as their active roster. Plus, the Chargers have won six straight games.

(5) Jacksonville 20, (4) Pittsburgh 14: The Jaguars run the ball well and don't turn it over. That will be enough to win in adverse conditions once again in Pittsburgh. Coming in, the Steelers have not been playing good football.

DIVISIONAL ROUND

NFC

(6) Washington 28, (1) Dallas 27: Remember what happened a week ago? Sure, the Cowboys didn't have T.O., but the Redskins owned Tony Romo and ran roughshed over the 'Boys. It will be closer in Dallas, but the same shocking result.

(2) Green Bay 33, (5) New York 21: I find it interesting how little is being talked about the Packers despite their dominance from week to week. There's no way they're losing at home in January.

AFC

(1) New England 24, (5) Jacksonville 16: Not an easy win for the Patriots, but Randy Moss breaks free for a touchdown and the defense is steady.

(2) Indianapolis 26, (3) San Diego 17: Last time these teams played, Peyton Manning threw six interceptions in the rain. This time, in the dome, Manning is very efficient, and Philip Rivers throws the picks.

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

NFC

(2) Green Bay 28, (6) Washington 17: The Redskins lose their magic inside frigid Lambeau Field as the Packers, boosted by that improved running game and the reborn Brett Favre, return to the Super Bowl. The city goes absolutely beserk.

AFC

(2) Indianapolis 24, (1) New England 21: Even minus pass rusher Dwight Freeney, the Colts will make Brady n' Co. take sustained drives down the field. There will be no bombs to Moss. Meanwhile, Joseph Addai will repeat his standout performance from the teams' first meeting, and guess who will make the game-winning field goal? Yeah, you guessed it.

SUPER BOWL

... You'll have to wait a few weeks for this. I don't want to embarrass myself too much.

Brady's bomb to Moss epitomizes Patriots

ON FOOTBALL

Trailing the New York Football Giants 28-23 with just over 11 minutes to play in the fourth quarter Saturday night, Tom Brady attempted to do what he had done so many times this perfect season.

He launched an airtight spiral toward wide-open Randy Moss, his favorite target who had broken away from his inferior opponents in the Giants secondary. But as God-like as Brady is, his arm is human, and the pass came up short.

Moss nearly made a shoestring catch — he has, after all, caught balls thrown between two defenders and directly at defenders this season — but couldn't hold on. The ball fell to the ground.

What happened next is why New England is a summit above the rest of the NFL. With the Patriots facing 3rd-and-10 from their own 35-yard line, Moss ran the same 9 route to the same spot. After catching his breath, there he was racing by himself down the right sideline. And after refueling his right arm, there was Brady releasing another low-arcing spiral in Moss' direction.

And this time, No. 81 didn't have to break stride. The ball hit him in the chest, and he was gone.

The Patriots regained the lead. You know the story from there. A 16-0 unblemished record. A rather loquacious Bill Belichick at the postgame podium.

But back to the juiciest minute of the night. Actually, the touchdown wasn't even designed for Moss. Brady's main option was diminutive receiver Wes Welker, who was running a short route. But when the defenders bit on Welker's cut, there was Moss, running untouched down the sideline. And Brady had no qualms about finding his tallest target one more time, about throwing one more 65-yard pass.

And Moss didn't complain about running approximately 200 yards in the course of a minute or two. (Yes, he could be a track star if he wasn't so good at catching footballs.)

Seriously, how many teams will run their premier receiver 65 yards down the sideline on consecutive plays? How many teams will trust their quarterback to throw back-to-back deep balls, especially after the first one came up well short?

That's one of many reasons New England stands alone as the lone NFL team to go 16-0. Yes, it helps having the career leaders for touchdown passes and TD catches in a season. But that doesn't take away from the genius behind having Moss run an identical route.

The thing about the Patriots, is they've always made the right calls. It's never mattered if they throw the ball on 27 consecutive plays or run it 10 straight times. They do what Belichick, Brady and Co. think will work at the time.

So forget running a draw to mix up the defense. Or looking for the tight end over the middle. If Moss could beat the secondary once, he could do it again, right?

"I wish I could have made a better throw," Brady said about the first pass, which was designed for Moss.

But, I'm sure, Brady's not fretting over the bad throw a day later.

Because these Patriots, although not perfect every play, are rather quick to correct their mistakes — even in the course of a New York Minute.

And that's just another reason they stand an impeccable 16-0, just three wins away from the ultimate zenith of football success.