Showing posts with label 2007-08 men's college basketball preview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2007-08 men's college basketball preview. Show all posts

Sunday, January 6, 2008

Harris, Sims must lead Michigan

ON COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Here's what someone who didn't watch Michigan's 65-58 loss to Purdue Saturday might glean from today's game story:

These Wolverines, now 4-10, are the quickest team in school history to reach double digits in losses.

Ouch.

But watching the Wolverines battle Purdue on its homecourt Saturday, I saw hope in the form of two young players.

Freshman Manny Harris and sophomore DeShawn Sims.

The guard-forward duo simply refused to let Michigan receive its annual shellacking at Mackey Arena.

Despite going nine minutes, 37 seconds without a basket in the first half and trailing by 14 at the break, Harris and Sims ignited a furious second-half rally that pulled Michigan to within two points on three occasions.

Sims initially pulled got the Wolverines within a basket by swishing two 3-pointers, including a contested 3 after he used a jab space to create a small sliver of space.

Then the freshman took over, consistently driving to the basket and scoring or getting to the free-throw line, where he didn't miss in the half. Harris also showed his versatility, stepping back for a late jumper that pulled Michigan within three.

Purdue's young squad, however, refused to miss free throws in the final minutes, making seven in a row and 11 of its last 12 from the line to pull out the win.

And leave Michigan with another loss.

But here's another great thing about the precocious Harris. As hard as losing hits him, he finds light in each "L," always looking toward the future — which is the only way this history-making (in a bad way) Michigan team can stay positive.

"Our best is still to come, and we're still getting better," Harris told the Ann Arbor News. "You can pull a lot of positives out of this game, but it's still a negative because we lost."

Well-said, Manny.

In all, Harris (25 points) and Sims (15) scored 29 of Michigan's 38 second-half points. And that was with Purdue's defense keying on them. A player is good when he can score against a team-focused defense. A player is great when he can score when a defense is determined to stop him.

Let's be realistic. As much as any good player and any good coach wants to win every single game in which they compete, this season isn't — and shouldn't be — about wins and losses. It would be unwise for John Beilein or any player to set a goal of, say, 15 wins.

They'd just be setting themselves up for disappointment — a common theme under Tommy Amaker's six Michigan teams.

Rather, this year is about the underclassmen becoming comfortable with each other and Beilein's complex Princeton-style offense and 1-3-1 trapping defense. It's about this team showing in spurts what it can be — all the time — two years down the road.

And it's about the future leaders of that future team emerging.

If it wasn't clear before Saturday, it is now that Harris and Sims are Michigan's "dynamic duo," the pair that might finally lead the Wolverines back to the NCAA tournament.

Sims is the player who best understands Beilein's system. He knows that big men like him must step out to shoot 3s over defenders unwilling to defend on the perimeter. And he made a beautiful bounce-pass feed to a cutting Ron Coleman for a layup in the second half Saturday.

Harris is easily Michigan's most talented player. He still makes freshman mistakes — on a side note, is "freshman mistake" still a viable phrase in today's freshmen-dominated college basketball environment? — such as his pair of bad passes out of bounds Saturday, and he finished with a team-high four turnovers.

But when he also leads Michigan with those career-high 25 points and five rebounds, the giveaways don't look so bad.

What's most important is that Harris is a player who can create shots for himself and get to the free-throw line — from which he's money — when nothing else is working offensively. He played a team-high 36 minutes versus Purdue, but he also scored Michigan's last four points to keep it in the game. His legs were far from dead in the closing minutes.

So now the brutal road continues with a home contest against No. 12 Indiana on Tuesday. The game will mark six ranked opponents in Michigan's first 15 games.

Again, ouch.

But even with each loss, Michigan fans can hold out hope that an NCAA tournament birth isn't that far down the road thanks to the play and leadership of a freshman and a sophomore.

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

NCAA men's basketball preview: predicting the 65

ON COLLEGE BASKETBALL

I've spent the past several days pondering how I want to handle my college hoops preview.

Should I predict all of the major conferences? Should I predict the All-Americans? What about the top freshmen? Coaches most likely to be fired?

But then it came to me: What, ultimately, is Division I college basketball about? What does it boil down to? When do the casual fans ditch their dinner dates to sit in front of the TV?

You guessed it — on Selection Sunday. No matter what happens during November, December, January, February and early March, if a team is selected to participate in the NCAA Tournament, all is good. It (and its fans) has a new life. Anything can happen. It controls its destiny.

Which is why, without further ado, I am embarking on the unenviable task of predicting each of the 65 teams which will play in the Big Dance. Let's get it started.

31 AUTOMATIC BIDS

Big East Conference
— Georgetown: Big man Roy Hibbert will have an All-American year, making his decision to return well worth it.

Atlantic 10 Conference
— Xavier: The Musketeers, led by diminutive guard Drew Lavender, could be even better than last year, when they were a last-second 3-pointer away from beating Ohio State and advancing to the Sweet 16.

Metro Atlantic
— Loyola (Md.): The MAAC's leading returning scorer, Gerald Brown, averaged 22 points last season.

Ivy League
— Cornell: Pennsylvania and Princeton have won or shared the title every season since 1962. Expect a big shift in power this season.

America East
— Albany: The Great Danes will repeat despite the loss of conference player of the year Jamar Wilson. Vermont, as always, will be their top challenger.

Patriot League
— Holy Cross: This is becoming a two-team league, with Holy Cross and Bucknell meeting in the conference tournament title game the past three seasons. Expect it to happen again.

Northeast Conference
— Robert Morris: No team has made back-to-back appearances in the NCAA Tournament from this conference. Expect the same this season as the Colonials unseat Central Connecticut State.

Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)
— North Carolina: Duke might challenge the Tar Heels, but there is simply too much talent and depth, and Tyler Hansbrough is the most determined player in the country.

MEAC
— Hampton: Rashad West, who led the league in scoring with 17.8 points per game, will help the Pirates back to the Big Dance.

CAA
— Virginia Commonwealth: Eric Maynor, who hit the game-winning shot against Duke in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, is back for another run at it.

Big South
— High Point: Led by Arizona "AZ" Reid, who led the league in scoring with 21 ppg, the Panthers are ready to take over the top spot in the conference from Winthrop, which lost coach Gregg Marshall.

Southern Conference
— Davidson: No doubt about this. Led by Stephon Curry, the son of former NBA sweet shooter Dell Curry, the Wildcats should spend some time in the Top 25.

Southeastern (SEC)
— Tennessee: With Florida down and Kentucky rebuilding under Billy Gillispie, this is the Volunteers' season. Scoring point guard and All-America candidate Chris Lofton will lead the charge.

Ohio Valley Conference
— Austin Peay: Buoyed by the return of all their key players, the Governors will try to get the OVC its first Big Dance win since 1989.

Sun Belt
— Western Kentucky: The league should be strong thanks to the return of 80 percent of its top players, but the Hilltoppers will be the best of the 13 teams.

Atlantic Sun
— Belmont: Expect the Bruins to make their second straight NCAA Tournament appearance.

Big Ten
— Indiana: A week ago, I would have picked Michigan State, but after watching freshman Eric Gordon play in an exhibition game, I'm convinced he'll be special. And alongside D.J. White, he'll make the Hoosiers the league's best team.

Horizon League
— Butler: Sure, the Bulldogs lost their coach Todd Lickliter (to Iowa), but Brad Stevens inherits four of the Sweet 16 team's top five scorers.

Summit League
— Oakland: The league, formerly known as the Mid-Continent Conference, has a new name, and it will feature a different team in the NCAA Tournament, as the Golden Grizzlies take Oral Roberts' spot.

Mid-American (MAC)
— Ohio: This might be the toughest league to predict, but I'm going with the loaded Bobcats, who will be led by forward Leon Williams, who averaged 14.4 points and 8.8 rebounds last season.

Conference USA
— Memphis: The biggest no-brainer. The Tigers could be the No. 1 team in the country, and if their first two games are any indication, freshman guard Derrick Rose is as good as advertised.

Big 12
— Kansas: Frank Martin's young Wildcats will give the Jayhawks a scare, but ultimately experience will prove vital as Brandon Rush and a trio of steady guards lead Kansas.

Missouri Valley
— Southern Illinois: You know the Salukis will always play strong defense, and forward Randal Falker is a beast down low.

Southland Conference
— Texas-Arlington: With every key player back, expect the Mavericks, who were just 13-17 last season, to make a surprise Big Dance showing.

SWAC
— Grambling: The Tigers, who haven't won a share of the league title since 1989, return seven of their top eight scorers.

Big Sky
— Montana: Jordan Hasquet, who is the lone all-conference returning player, will take the Grizzlies to the tournament.

WAC
— New Mexico State: No Reggie Theus, no problem for the Aggies, who return loads of talent.

Mountain West
— BYU: All-conference Trent Plaisted will lead the Cougars in a down year for the conference, which lost several of its marquee players.

Pac 10
— UCLA: This conference is absolutely loaded, but there's no doubt who the top team should be. Keep an eye on freshman giant Kevin Love. He could be special.

Big West
— UC-Santa Barbara: Alex Harris, who averaged 21.1 points and 8.3 rebounds per game last season, will lead the Gauchos, who will take advantage of the recruiting violations that have negatively transformed the Long Beach State program.

West Coast
— Gonzaga: Another easy pick. The 'Zags were able to make the tournament without suspended star Josh Heytvelt a year ago. Now a remorseful Heytvelt is back, along with several other key parts of that team.

34 AT-LARGE BIDS (BY CONFERENCE): WITH BETTER SEEDS LISTED HIGHER.

ACC (5)
— Duke
— N.C. State
— Clemson
— Virginia
— Georgia Tech

Atlantic 10 (1)
— St. Josephs

Big 10 (4)
— Michigan State
— Ohio State
— Wisconsin
— Minnesota

Big 12 (4)
— Kansas State
— Texas A&M
— Texas
— Oklahoma

Big East (6)
— Louisville
— Marquette
— Pittsburgh
— Syracuse
— Connecticut
— Providence

CAA (1)
— George Mason

Conference USA (1)
— UAB

Missouri Valley (1)
— Bradley

Moutain West (1)
— Utah

Pac 10 (5)
— Washington State
— USC
— Oregon
— Stanford
— Arizona

SEC (5)
— Florida
— Kentucky
— Arkansas
— Mississippi State
— Georgia

JUST OUT: Washington (Pac 10), Fresno State (WAC), Villanova (Big East), Alabama (SEC), Mississippi State (SEC), Illinois (Big 10), St. Mary's (West Coast), Maryland (ACC), Missouri (Big 12).

Whew! That's it, folks. Please respond with feedback on the selections/omissions you disagree with. I'm sure that come March I'll feel like an idiot.

Which is why, for now, I'll abstain from predicting the Final Four or the national champion. I'll make those picks once the field is set. Once I know for sure who's dancing and who's not.

As always, enjoy the madness.