Did the Phillies win too soon?

ON BASEBALL

I know this sounds preposterous, but the Philadelphia Phillies might have been better off losing Game 5 Wednesday night.

Provided, of course, that they return to the city of Brotherly Love and win Game 6 or 7 of the NLCS.

I know this sounds equally ludicrous, but the Tampa Bay Rays might be better off if they lose Game 5 Thursday night in Fenway Park.

Provided, of course, that they close the deal on their first World Series invitation in Game 6 or 7 back at Tropicana Field.

Before you call me a nut job or sports gambling addict, let me explain myself. This was, after all, the final Debate Night in America. Please, my friends, don't cross the aisle just yet.

I'm not suggesting, at all, that the Phillies shouldn't have given maximum effort in Wednesday's clinching game. And I'm not suggesting that the Rays shouldn't do the same against the defending champions Thursday night. Ask any Philly right now about how they feel, and they'll give you the typical, "Words can't explain..."

But numbers can explain that winning the NLCS or ALCS too soon can result in an odious Fall Classic experience. Just ask the Detroit Tigers of 2006. Just ask the Colorado Rockies of '07.

Two years ago on Oct. 14, the city of Detroit was in a frenzy. I wasn't there. In fact, I was 9,093 miles away in Sydney, Australia. But people back home relayed the craziness to me. The Tigers had just swept the Oakland A's in the ALCS. They were playing their best baseball of their remarkable turnaround season.

Meanwhile, St. Louis was slugging its way through a burn-for-burn series with the Mets. It wasn't decided until New York's Carlos Beltran got caught staring at a nasty curveball for a called strike three in Game 7. The date was Oct. 19.

On Oct. 21, the Fall Classic finally got underway. And you couldn't find a baseball fan — or expert — outside of St. Louis who thought the Cardinals would win the Series. Of course, we all know what transpired after that.

Cardinals 4, Tigers 1, with the lone win coming in controversial fashion as Kenny Rogers had some foreign substance on his left pitching hand. Five errors by Tigers' pitching. An absolute no-show by their suddenly impotent lineup.

All it took was a week away from the competitive diamond for the Tigers to lose their magic. Some say their pitchers should have practiced throwing the ball to first and third during the time off. I think they should have scrimmaged some fall-league teams.

Then came 2007. And another magical story. This time it was the Colorado Rockies, winning 14 of their final 15 regular-season games — including a one-game, 13-inning playoff drama against San Diego — and then breezing through an NLDS sweep of the Phillies and a four-game undressing of Arizona.

Before the people of Denver realized there was a professional team in their city besides the Broncos, the Rockies were in the World Series. A shocking euphoria followed. But, alas, the winner of 21 of 22 games ran into its toughest opponent yet.

A long break from baseball.

It was even worse than the Tigers' respite a year earlier. The Rockies clinched the N.L. pennant on Oct. 15. The World Series wasn't scheduled to begin until Oct. 24! Matt Holliday could have visited all seven continents, solved global warming and started a campaign for president in that time.

Meanwhile, the Boston Red Sox were in the midst of gaining as much momentum as possible leading right up to the beginning of the Fall Classic. As they battled back from a 3-1 ALCS deficit to the Indians, Coco Crisp had to cancel his three-day mini vacation in Cabo. There'd be no time for fooling around.

Heck, the Red Sox barely took off their uniforms after winning Game 7 the night of Oct. 21. The Series commenced on the 24th.

After three dominating victories over the Indians, the red-hot Sox — whom nobody questioned was the better team — put a stake in Colorado's 10-game winning streak in the opener and proceeded to roll to an easy four-game sweep.

Since then, Denver sports fans have once again forgotten about the baseball team that inhabits their football-crazed city.

I hate to play the what-if game, but once every couple months or two is OK. Not to take anything away from the '06 Cardinals — whom have been called, by the way, the worst World Series champion in baseball history — or the '07 Red Sox, but I'd be curious to see how those series would have turned out if the Tigers and Rockies, respectively, hadn't faced such long breaks between series.

Which brings me back to this season. Right now the Phillies are riding high, playing great baseball, brimming with confidence. But will they be this sharp in a week? Will Cole Hamels hit his targets like he did in two dominating NLCS performances? These, I believe, are legitimate questions.

Part of me wants, for the sake of fairness, the Rays to close out the Red Sox Thursday night. At least that way both Fall Classic participants would face almost equally long breaks. They'd both have to deal with the issue of how to spend five or six days away from the diamond. How to stay sharp? How to stay focused?

But if Tampa Bay is lucky enough to face a short Boston Renaissance before closing out the Red Sox in Game 6 or 7 Saturday or Sunday, I'll give a clear edge to the Rays over the Phillies. Not only are they a great team, overflowing with confident young pitchers and a lineup every bit as explosive as the Phillies', they'd still have the taste of bubbly in their mouths when they take the field Wednesday night.

Don't underestimate that factor.

Of course, I haven't even mentioned the other possibility, but I think we all have a pretty good idea of what would transpire in the World Series if the Red Sox somehow pull off another ALCS comeback from a 3-1 series deficit.

Yep, three titles for Boston in five years.

I don't see that happening, however. Tampa Bay is playing way too well right now. The Rays aren't simply beating the Red Sox, they're embarrassing them — and in front of the Fenway Faithful.

But don't think that another dominating Game 5 performance would necessarily carry over to a still-distant Fall Classic. And definitely don't assume that the Phillies' brilliance in the NLCS will carry over.

Just ask the last two World Series runners-up.

MLB should consider instant replay

ON BASEBALL

Padres fans, I'm sure, were fuming after their team's 9-8, 13-inning loss to Colorado Monday night, which officially ended their season.

Not only did their all-time saves leader, Trevor Hoffman, blow his second consecutive save opportunity — giving up three runs in the final inning — but the game-winning run didn't actually score.

Replays showed that the Rockies' Matt Holliday didn't touch the plate after diving in headfirst to send Coors Field's spectators into a Rocky Mountain frenzy. As Padres catcher Michael Barrett, who originally dropped the ball on the throw from right fielder Brian Giles, moved to tag the lying-face-down Holliday, home plate umpire Tim McClelland made a delayed safe call.

Game over. Rockies fly to Philly. Padres go home.

San Diego fans, however, have no beef this morning. The safe call was justice for a Rockies team that had to play four more innings than it should have. That's because another call was blown way back in the bottom of the seventh inning.

With Colorado leading 6-5, Garrett Atkins blasted a fly ball to deep left field which appeared — thanks to numerous slow-motion replays — to sail above the fence then ricochet off a wheelchair and back onto the field. The umpires failed to originally rule the hit a home run, and a few minutes of deliberation didn't change their minds. San Diego got out of the inning unscathed and tied the the score 6-6 an inning later.

The final score should have been 7-6 Colorado in nine innings. The Rockies shouldn't have had to use 10 pitchers in the winner-take-all-playoff less than 40 hours before Wednesday's first round game at Philadelphia.

Which is why I suggest for upcoming seasons a replay review system.

This would be nothing like the system used by the NFL or college football. You wouldn't see Joe Torre throwing a red flag out of the dugout (as much as he'd enjoy that, I'm sure). What I suggest is a system similar to the one used in the NBA, in which buzzer-beating shots are reviewed as well as 3-pointers that like like they might be 2-pointers.

I don't advocate reviewing balls and strikes or close plays at first base. The only plays that should be reviewed are those like the home run Monday and the final play at the plate Monday:

— Umpires can review any fly ball that is a borderline home run.

— Umpires can review whether a fly ball down a foul line landed fair or foul.

— Umpires can review any close play at home plate that ends a game.

— Reviews are asked for by the substitute umpire present at every game.

Those are three instances that happen very rarely. The majority of games will happen without an umpire review. The games will not be significantly lengthened.

But players — not to mention, teams — won't be robbed of home runs by umpires who are several hundred feet away from the fence, and games won't end on a missed call by the home plate umpire.

I know that umpires are very proud men who dislike being questioned. It seems that with each passing year their tolerance for players arguing with them lessens. They won't be in favor of an instant replay system.

But a system as suggested above wouldn't take the game out of the umpires' hands. Still 99.99 percent of the calls would be at their discretion, and reviewed plays wouldn't be instigated by managers, but rather by the substitute umpire.

Thankfully on Monday it was an eye for an eye. The Rockies got robbed, only to have their merchandise returned to them.

But what would people be saying right now had Hoffman not blown the save? I'm sure people in Colorado would be complaining about the missed call instead of celebrating the Rockies' first playoff appearance since 1995.

All that's needed is a small fix.