Duke's balance, 3s down Carolina

ON COLLEGE BASKETBALL

Memo to North Carolina fans: Maybe if you stopped hating Greg Paulus so much, he'd stop playing so well.

Paulus, a former high school stud quarterback, has reveled in being at the center of things this season, and Wednesday night was no different. Duke's point guard lit up the Dean Smith Center for 18 points on 6-for-8 shooting from 3-point range. Thursday morning, sitting in a room full of UNC fans, everyone talked of how they absolutely can't stand Paulus.

But they could have used him on their team Wednesday. Most of Paulus' 3s were contested, but the 6-foot-1 guard has a quick release and was able to get his shot off over contesting defenders.

UNC didn't play terrible, it was just out-manned. Tyler Hansbrough could only do so much.

And that's why, at this point in the season, Duke is a slightly better team. The Blue Devils simply have more scoring options — and you never know who's going to pour in 20 on a particular night.

On Wednesday, it was everybody, as six Devils scored in double figures. Additionally, five Devils knocked down at least one 3-pointer.

How do you stop Duke's attack? You hope the Devils have a bad shooting night from behind the arc like they did in their lone loss to Pittsburgh. When Paulus made a 3 less than 20 seconds into the game, I got the feeling it was going to be a good shooting night for the Devils, which was bad news for the Tar Heels.

If you check out the box score, UNC made just two less field goals than Duke (30 to 28) and made three more free throws (19 to 16) — numbers that would equate to a one-point Duke win if the 3-point shot didn't exist.

The arc killed the Heels Wednesday night. While Duke made 13 of 29 long-range bombs, UNC managed to hit just three of 17.

I wasn't surprised. Not only do the Devils shoot the 3 well, they also defend it extremely well. In all eight of its ACC games, Duke has not allowed a team to make more than four 3s, and its opponents have shot a combined 28-of-101 (28 percent) from downtown.

Duke haters might call that luck, but the truth is that the Devils are willing to give up the occasional easy inside shot as long as they don't surrender the open 3. In college basketball, nothing swings momentum like a made 3-pointer — especially back-to-back 3s. Only once did the Heels have the momentum — when they ended the first half on an 8-0 run to pull within 42-39. But the momentum was gone in the second half, and Duke gradually built its lead en route to the 89-78 win.

While Hansbrough gave another workmanlike effort with 28 points and 18 rebounds, he didn't get the perimeter help he needed. Duke was all over UNC's top outside shooter, Wayne Ellington, forcing him into a miserable 3-for-14 shooting performance, including zero makes out of six 3-point attempts. Sixth man Danny Green was even more off, not scoring until he hit a late 3 and finishing 1-for-10 from the field.

Obviously, the Heels missed point guard Ty Lawson, whose ankle didn't feel great before the game, causing Roy Williams to tell him to sit out. The Heels weren't able to get out on the fast-break with Lawson sidelined, and Lawson has also improved his outside shot this season. Assuming a full recovery, Duke-Carolina Part II should be very intriguing come early March.

But what happened, happened. And I'm not even sure Lawson would have made a huge difference. The Devils' system is predicated on running, so I don't think UNC would have wanted to get into a track meet.

As it was, Duke thrived in the half-court because of its ability to shoot the 3. When Kyle Singler sets a pick out top for Paulus, it's almost impossible to guard. Here's why: If Singler's man doesn't hedge on Paulus, the point guard will quickly pull up for an open 3. If he does hedge, Singler is usually pops open for a 3 — and for a 6-8 guy, he can shoot it from outside.

Singler's and Paulus' 3s a minute apart late in the second half helped to keep Duke's lead at nine, and UNC didn't get much closer until the final minute when it was too late.

The good thing for the Heels is it's only early February. In retrospect, Wednesday's result won't matter come the big games in March. By then, Lawson will likely be healthy and the Heels will be an improved team on both ends of the floor.

The good thing for the Devils is they're on a roll right now and they're showing no signs of letting up. All season long, they've been doubted because of their lack of an inside presence. But will anyone remember that they were out-rebounded by 11 (49-38) Wednesday? Maybe Mike Krzyzewski and his staff in preparing them for future games, but nobody else.

The truth is that the Devils have the players to win a national title. Their leader, DeMarcus Nelson, had a poor game Wednesday, making a mere three of nine shots to score 13 points and playing just 23 foul-plagued minutes. If Hansbrough — easily UNC's most important player — had scored below his average or been in foul trouble, the Heels would have lost by a lot more than 11.

These teams are still very evenly matched, and there remains a chance Duke could stumble before the rematch March 8, giving UNC a chance to snare a share of the ACC title when the teams face off inside Cameron Indoor Stadium.

But for now, the national rankings have got it right: Duke is No. 2 and UNC is No. 3.

Week 9 NFL picks

ON FOOTBALL

It is almost time. After watching so much analysis on ESPN, I'm ready to punch Ed Werder in the noggin, Super Bowl XLI1/2 is finally upon us. In a matter of hours the 8-0 Patriots will take on the 7-0 Colts in Indianapolis. One of those ESPN reports noted that tickets are selling for as much as $1,800.

Whoa.

According to another report, there also are other games on this Sunday, as in other NFL games. I checked this morning's paper to verify this startling rumor, and was surprised to find out that it held water. There are, in fact, 13 "other games."

So let's see if I can build on a decent 9-4 week which propelled my overall picking record to a still-dismal 62-39.

At New Orleans (3-4) 24, Jacksonville (5-2) 19: The Saints continue to march after that 0-4 start.

At Detroit (5-2) 27, Denver (3-4) 20: I'm still not convinced the Lions are for real, but they're good enough to beat an underachieving Broncos team. The Roy Williams-Dre Bly matchup should be fun to watch.

At Atlanta (1-6) 16, San Francisco (2-5) 10: Do not watch this game.

Green Bay (6-1) 24, at Kansas City (4-3) 21: Another late drive by Brett Favre wins this one. He's having so much fun, he might never retire.

At Cleveland (4-3) 21, Seattle (4-3) 14: The Browns continue to act as the AFC's greatest surprise.

Washington (4-3) 17, at N.Y. Jets (1-7) 9: This will not be a pleasant first start for Jets QB Kellen Clemens.

San Diego (4-3) 31, Minnesota (2-5) 17: Chargers continue to roll, saving Norv Turner his job.

At Buffalo (3-4) 24, Cincinnati (2-5) 19: I am officially off the Bengals bandwagon.

At Tampa Bay (4-4) 24, Arizona (3-4) 14: Cardinals are a terrible road team.

At Oakland (2-5) 17, Houston (3-5) 14: Apparently people in Houston and Oakland will get this game on CBS instead of Super Bowl XLI1/2. Ouch.

At Philly (3-4) 31, Dallas (6-1) 24: The players on the Eagles dedicate this performance to Andy Reid and the hardships he's going through with his family.

At Pittsburgh (5-2) 17, Baltimore (4-3) 13: These Steelers are for real while these Ravens aren't as tough as they're rumored to be.

Super Bowl XLI1/2: New England (8-0) 34, Indianapolis (7-0) 31: While I am a huge advocate of getting outdoors on Sunday afternoons and enjoying the fall leaves, this is a game you might want to stay in front of the TV for. In fact, this game will almost certainly be better than the actual Super Bowl.

If these teams meet again in the AFC Championship Game, that will top this because of what will be at stake, but the real Super Bowl's got nothing on this game.

I expect plenty of offense from both sides, with the outcome coming down to who has the ball last. That will be the Patriots, as Tom Brady will march them down the field for the winning field goal.

OK, that's enough analysis. I don't want to be a hypocrite.

Enjoy the game everyone. Except for you folks in Oakland and Houston (hah hah hah hah).

Life on Tobacco Road

ON COLLEGE BASKETBALL

I arrived in The Triangle on Monday, but I wasn't officially welcomed until Friday night.

To the common person, Oct. 12 is just a normal Friday. The end of the work week. A time to relax, perhaps sip a few adult beverages and prepare for the weekend's activities.

In Chapel Hill, however — and, I'm sure, on other select campuses throughout the country — the night of Oct. 12 was special. The air was cooler, the intensity was palpable.

Yep, it was the first night of college basketball practice. The first chance for Tar Heels fans to see their beloved 'Heels.

There's an important football game in Chapel Hill Saturday — a matchup between rivals No. 7 South Carolina (led by locally hated Steve Spurrier) and UNC. There's been plenty of talk about it on the radio waves around here.

But even as just a five-day resident of Tobacco Road, it's become pretty clear to me just how important college hoops is — even more than three weeks before the first game that counts.

The Dean Smith Center was packed to capacity — that's approximately 21,750 fans decked out in sky blue — as UNC alum and popular "SportsCenter" anchor Stuart Scott MCd "Late Night with Roy (Williams)," the 'Heels comedic opening practice of the promising season.

Fans from courtside to the upper nosebleeds sat through three hours of entertainment, which began with some yawn-inducing skits by the women's team. But when the men's team was introduced one by one, with each player walking down an aisle to a rousing standing ovation, I got chills.

I thought to myself, How are these players able to stay level-headed with all the love heaped upon them? How do they deal with the pressure? Or the expectations, considering that many pundits consider UNC the No. 1 team in the country entering the season?

Coming from Ann Arbor, I know how attached a city can become to a college team. Heck, 110,000-plus fans pack Michigan Stadium for a game against cupcake Eastern Michigan.

But it's just a different feeling down here. These 19-year-old basketball players can't hide behind a helmet — or an offensive line. They're exposed on the court. Their names will be etched into UNC's fine history.

As Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina's potential national player of the year, said during Thursday's media day, UNC's tradition is one of the program's key recruiting tools. Both UNC and Duke sell themselves. These programs don't recruit players who shy away from the spotlight.

Which explains why no Tar Heel was hesitant to perform goofy dances and skits on the Dean Dome's floor Friday night. There was shaking, strutting, joking and — finally — playing in the form of a rather dramatic 37-37 tie between the white and blue team.

Even though many of the fans had slipped out by the game's end, I found myself sitting on the edge of my nosebleed seat as Ty Lawson's final-second shot clanged off the back iron, icing the meaningless tie.

I couldn't help it. It may still be mid-October — what we call in Ann Arbor the middle of football season. In places like Boston, postseason baseball grabs all the headlines.

But down here, on Tobacco Road, people are already talking basketball. Seriously.

Which makes we wonder, What will the atmosphere be come March?

Those were the Lions we know

ON FOOTBALL

Anyone familiar with the Detroit Lions franchise and objective enough to curtail the celebrating after two ho-hum victories, knew what was coming Sunday.

Sure, a pair of ESPN analysts — who know football, but haven't been around Detroit for losing season after losing season — picked Detroit to beat Philadelphia Sunday and improve to 3-0. Sure, there were questions about Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb's focus heading into the game due to controversial comments he made about black quarterbacks receiving unfair criticism on HBO.

It's called false hope, people. Anyone who looks themselves in the mirror, knew what was coming Sunday.

A reality check.

Are the Lions better than the 3-13 team of a year ago? Yeah, I think so.

Will they score a lot of points this season? Yeah, probably more than half the teams in the league.

But is their defense the worst in the league? Well, no other team came close to giving up 56 points Sunday (Buffalo was closest, surrendering 38 to a pretty good New England team).

Fifty-six points, people. I don't care if your offense features the nine best receivers in the league paired with Peyton Manning. You're not going to score 40-plus points often, let alone 56 points.

Only the Lions can turn critical Philly fans into soft-bellied lovers of their home team — a feat accomplished for at least one day. Only the Lions can make Kevin Curtis into Marvin Harrison for a day (11 catches for 221 yards and three first-half touchdowns will do that).

Sunday was the start of the downward spiral for Detroit. While every win is "key" in the National Football League, beating Oakland and Minnesota (two of the league's worst) doesn't prove a thing. Now Detroit gets the angry Bears at home (loss) and an improved Washington team on the road (loss) before its bye week.

It's funny how 2-0 can — and will — become 2-3 in the wink of an eye.

The highlight of Detroit's dismal afternoon may have come when first-round draft pick Calvin Johnson made a leaping catch between two defenders with the Lions down 35-7. It was beautiful — except that Johnson had to leave the game with a lower back bruise (if he's out against the Bears, forget about it).

But to make my point, Detroit — with its pretty pass offense run by Jon Kitna, Roy Williams, Johnson & Co. — will reel off some "I can't believe he did that!" plays this year, but there's no substance to the team.

No running game (to the tune of 39 yards Sunday). Poor pass protection (to the tune of nine sacks for 53 yards).

And no pass defense (to the tune of 363 passing yards and four touchdowns by McNabb). Oh, and Detroit's run "D" didn't exactly play well either, giving up 173 yards on 34 carries.

The optimists will say Sunday was only one game that misrepresented what this team's "all about." Coaches might throw out the "we weren't prepared" excuse.

They're both wrong. What do you think the Lions coaches did all week leading up to the game, watched re-runs of "Law & Order?" No, they were preparing for the game. As were the players. These guys are professionals.

Sunday was a dose of reality for die-hard Lions fans (probably the most faithful followers in all of sports). The Eagles exposed the Lions for what they are:
— An exciting (yet predictable) offensive team, which throws long touchdowns (91 yards to Williams) and refuses to run the football (a measly 12 carries).
— A terrible defensive team when the front four is unable to get to opposing quarterbacks.

Sounds like a 5-11, 6-10 team.

Sorry, folks. I'd rather be truthful than mislead.

Monday, 7/16/07's main point: Redding signing won't save Lions

ON FOOTBALL

The Detroit Lions like to do this.

They'll sign a player — that is, one body — and hype him as a player who can save the franchise.

Dre' Bly, Charles Rogers, Roy Williams, Mike Williams, Calvin Johnson, even Joey Harrington. And, of course, back in the 1990s, the great Barry Sanders. They've all been tabbed as "prime-time players," guys who can make a huge impact on the field. The Lions pay them "the money," or draft them very high with the hope that their investment will turn the losses into wins.

Um, well, this strategy hasn't worked.

But, apparently, that hasn't stopped Detroit from dealing. This morning arguably the worst franchise in the NFL — and some will say all pro sports — made Cory Redding the highest-paid defensive tackle in football with a seven-year, $49 million contract which includes $16 million in guarantees.

Good for the Lions. They now have a happy defensive tackle. But that's about it.

This is not a team that can afford to have happy, satisfied players on its front lines. We all know what has transpired since Shaun Rogers became the highest-paid DT after getting a six-year, $46 million contract. Yeah, last year he was banned four games for violating the league's substance abuse policy, and he just was mixed up in a strip club incident (although the charges were dropped).

A few players with big contracts aren't going to save the Lions. This franchise needs young, hungry guys who want to win. This franchise needs team guys, not guys with imbalanced contracts that could cause jealously or animosity in the locker room.

Quick, who had the best season last year for the Lions? How about wide receiver Mike Furrey, who was making $544,620, great money for any of us, but spending money for big-time athletes.

Based upon the season Redding had in 2006 (48 tackles, eight sacks) and his health (he played all 16 games each of the past three years), he's a good player to hold onto. But the Lions overextended themselves in giving into his contract demands. So what if he was threatening to hold out from training camp. If he followed through on that, then a team that's trying to find the right mix of guys to gain some sort of respect shouldn't want him.

Make him play another year as the franchise player. Tell him if he puts together another solid season, he'll be rewarded with a good (but not outrageous) contract at season's end. Heck, tell him his new deal will depend on how many victories the Lions salvage this season.

The Colts had every right to reward Dwight Freeney with a six-year, $72 million deal last week (the highest ever for a defensive player). They're the Super Bowl champions. He's the leader of their underrated defense. It made perfect sense.

The Lions, on the other hand, don't even belong in the same league as the Colts right now. So they shouldn't be paying the big bucks for individual players. Once they become a winner, fine.

Until then, they should focus on finding the right mix of dedicated, insatiable players to stop the late-night talk show hosts from making joke after joke about their franchise.