Kobe's Lakers will win the NBA title -- and probably a few more

ON BASKETBALL

I never thought the moment would come when I would lose all my faith in the defending-champion San Antonio Spurs.

Even prior to Game 5, with the Spurs facing a 3-1 series deficit and a road game in L.A., I told the mailman Thursday afternoon, "I'm not counting them out." And I certainly felt that way when I turned on the game midway through the second quarter and saw San Antonio 33, Los Angeles 16.

But as the game progressed, I realized the Spurs' fate. They would lose that lead, and lose the series and, ultimately, probably not win another championship with their current core.

Thank Kobe Bryant's Lakers for this.

When the season began, there were so many questions swirling around Bryant and the Lakers. The one nobody was asking: "Does this team have a chance to win a championship?" (If asked, the answer would have been a resounding, "Nope.")

One thing I was wondering: "Is Kobe Bryant the best player in the NBA?" What with LeBron James coming off his first NBA Finals appearance at the ripe age of 22 and even Dwyane Wade already blinging a championship ring, I had serious doubts.

Not anymore. Bryant is clearly the best player in the association, and, not coincidentally, he plays for the best team.

Don't get me wrong -- either Boston or Detroit will give the Lakers a great series, a Finals David Stern has been hoping for. But the difference will be Bryant.

He has an unbelievable feel for the game that he used to lack. Remember Game 7 against Phoenix two seasons ago? Bryant basically quit, refusing to shoot the ball during an embarrassing blowout. Now, at 29, Bryant knows when he must take over a game offensively and when to get his teammates involved.

And when he gets that fierce look in his eyes, he's virtually unstoppable. Bruce Bowen is supposed to be one of the league's best defenders. Bryant made him look old and slow in scoring 39 points from all over the court in LA's 100-92 victory.

It was a case of good defense getting beat by extraordinary offense.

Bryant could pull up and shoot over Bowen whenever he liked. And he could do it from anywhere -- 25 feet or 12 feet. Additionally, he does such a good job of keeping his dribble alive, that double-teams become useless because the big man who creates the double -- Tim Duncan for the Spurs -- can't stay with Bryant. Kobe showed this with a pair of drives right past the two-time MVP Thursday.

What was even more scary in the closeout game, however, was Bryant's fitness level. He didn't miss a minute of the second half, and yet he got better in the fourth quarter. If he can show that kind of endurance on one day's rest, imagine how much energy he'll have when the Finals commence in a week.

Simply put, when the Lakers have Bryant on the floor, they are the better team. The supporting cast is rock-solid, but even when Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol are on the bench, Bryant can control a game.

The only player I've watched in my lifetime whom the current Kobe reminds me of? Yep, you guessed it. (And if you didn't, look up the greatest players of all time.)

There are no weaknesses to Bryant's game. Early in his career, his outside shot needed work. Two years ago, he was called selfish and a bad teammate (and rightfully so) -- heck, people were even saying that after last season.

But something clicked in Kobe's head at the beginning of this season. No, the addition of Gasol didn't make Bryant who he is. It was before that, when Bryant was helpingAndrew Bynum look like a future All-Star. He saw that his teammates were working almost as hard as he was to make the team successful, and he gained a trust in them.

It's obvious that Bryant shares more than supreme talent with M.J. It's their competitiveness that stands out. (If you don't believe me, read this Sports Illustrated article.) That's why both players had a hard time dealing with an underachiever like Kwame Brown. They couldn't understand why he wasn't getting the most out of his ability.

But now, equipped with very capable teammates and one of the NBA's greatest coaches, Bryant has all he needs to play the lead role in this success story. And don't expect the show to end anytime soon. Don't think that Bryant's fourth NBA championship this spring will be his last.

By the time he's hung up No. 24, he might have more rings than a certain No. 23.

Old Spurs survive young, feisty Hornets

ON BASKETBALL

Watching the final quarter of San Antonio's 91-82 Game 7 win over New Orleans reminded me of a classic father-son rivalry.

There's the father, who has always been able to beat his son in games of one-on-one by using his strength and developed skills. Now, however, his son has caught up to him in those two departments, but still can't quite beat Dad. But he scratches and claws, making the old man sweat and breathe hard.

Such was the case Monday in New Orleans, as San Antonio's seemingly insurmountable 15-point lead entering the fourth quarter wilted all the way down to three ... because of the play of Jannero Pargo?

Yep, that's no typo. The Hornets' precocious superstar Chris Paul stood idle while Pargo revved his engine every time down the floor, sometimes not even waiting for his teammates. But Pargo was able to score against a Spurs team that appeared just a bit slower and fatigued than they were during the first three quarters.

The jitterbug backup point guard glided by defensive stalwart Bruce Bowen (36 years old) for a pair of runners ... the lead was down to 10.

He drew a foul on All-Star Tim Duncan (32) and converted both free throws ... make that an eight-point game.

Then there was the huge 3-pointer, which came off of three New Orleans offensive rebounds, that cut the Spurs' advantage to a precarious three points, 83-80.

Alas, there was no dream comeback for Pargo, 28, and his even younger teammates. The spurt came too little, too late, and when San Antonio's own fast, slithery point guard Tony Parker -- he's only 26, but he's got three championship rings -- nailed a midrange jumper with 50 seconds remaining, the old was moving on while the young will have to wait for next year.

"I think finally the experience helped a little bit," Parker said afterward.

And good thing it came through this time around, because who knows how much longer aging teams like the Spurs will be able to fend off the up-and-coming squads such as the Hornets.

Maybe very soon, but Monday was all about San Antonio's veterans -- the stars, the role players and the is-he-still-playing? guys.

It started with Duncan, whom you can simply watch and see how greatly he impacts a game (you don't need to check the box score). From the opening tip, the Spurs -- as they always do -- ran their offense through the 2002 and '03 MVP, and he was aggressive with his post-up moves.

New Orleans didn't want to double-team him, but when they didn't, he was too smart and still strong enough to score easily. So they doubled him almost every possession, and Duncan is as good as anybody at passing out of the post.

It's one thing when Manu Ginobili is hitting his outside shots; he's usually going to get his points unless he simply misses shots. But the killer Monday was that San Antonio's other guys, the glue of the team when it's at its best, entered the game and made huge 3-pointers.

Yes, the old fogies. They can't jump liked they used to, they can't run liked they used to. But even a 57-year-old can make set shots.

In the first half, it was seven-time NBA champion Robert Horry (37) -- yes, he still plays meaningful minutes in the playoffs -- making two huge 3s to help the Spurs take a 51-42 halftime advantage.

In the pivotal third quarter, it was Michael Finley (35) who quickly got out of a shooting slump with two huge triples as the Spurs built that commanding double-digit lead.

There was just one San Antonio 3 in the fourth quarter -- by newcomer Ime Udoka -- but the damage had already been inflicted. The Spurs finished with 12 3-pointers, including six by the trio of Horry, Finley and Bowen.

Not bad for a group of old grumps.

Of course, it shouldn't be forgotten that while Ginobili is just 30, he has a very pronounced bald spot. So maybe he, and his game-high 26 points and four 3s, should be considered an antique as well -- albeit, a very valuable antique.

What matters is that the Spurs showed, once again, that experience can trump youthful talent, if just barely. There's a reason they give the ball to Duncan on almost every offensive possession when he's in the game. Whether he makes a move or not, the play usually creates a better scoring opportunity.

As great as Pargo's fourth-quarter rally was, it glossed over the fact that the runner-up for the MVP, Paul, barely touched the ball in the period, making a single basket and basically becoming a nonfactor as he watched Pargo go to work.

Pargo can't really be blamed, however. Someone had to step up, and step up quickly. He was the first one to raise his hand. But the fact that New Orleans completely went away from its bread-and-butter when its season was on the line speaks to how inexperienced the Hornets still are.

This was only Paul's second season, and it was just the second in New Orleans for Peja Stojakovic, who had a horrendous game with seven points. The Hornets all get along, but they still need to build their on-court chemistry to the point where they know what to do in critical moments.

That's something they can learn from watching the Spurs in the next round.

As for San Antonio, it only gets harder from here. A well-rested Lakers team will likely push the Spurs to the brink. And this time, it will be more like taking on an uncle than a son. LA's Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher, at least, know what it takes to win a championship.

But don't expect the Spurs to back down when the going gets nasty and proclaim, "It's your turn to win."

Because especially for the old-timers, they want to tell their grandchildren one day that they repeated as NBA champions.

Before taking them out in the driveway for a little young vs. old.

Spurs' experience, smart play dominate Hornets in Game 4

ON BASKETBALL

The most telling sequence of Sunday night's 100-80 blowout win for San Antonio over New Orleans occurred during the third quarter.

Manu Ginobili had just made a falling-backward, one-handed runner in the lane while getting fouled when he was approached by teammate Michael Finley. After congratulating his teammate, Finley whispered something to Ginobili.

I can only guess what Finley said, but I've got a pretty good one — I think. That's because on San Antonio's next possession, Ginobili found a cutting Finley for an easy layup.

And the route continued.

What Finely must have said, I surmise, is that his defender was overplaying him, and he thought he could give a fake and then cut to the basket for an easy layup. And that's exactly what happened.

It was a microcosm of what happened throughout the game. The veteran, defending-champion Spurs knew what they needed to do every time down the court — and they executed. The Hornets, on the other hand, were a one-man show: Chris Paul did a lot of dribbling and scored his points, but his teammates appeared confused at times.

On one offensive possession, Tyson Chandler and Julian Wright looked at each other as if to ask, What are we doing out here?

It was a far cry from Games 1 and 2 in New Orleans, when the Hornets played like the team chock full of champions, not to mention guys who have been playing together for several years.

Of course, New Orleans still has home-court advantage in the knotted series. That shouldn't be forgotten in the immediate aftermath of the blowout. And only the Pistons have won a game this round on the road.

But besides Paul, they better wake up. Peja Stojakovic, David West, Morris Peterson and Co. looked lost on the court Sunday. On several occasions, West hesitated to take the midrange jumper that is usually his bread and butter.

Sunday's game was why most analysts and writers, including myself, picked New Orleans to bow out in the first round against Dallas. New Orleans played the part of the young, inexperienced team.

And the Spurs definitely looked like, well, the Spurs, never letting the Hornets get into the game thanks to flawless execution. Tim Duncan passed so deftly out of double teams, I mistook him for a point guard at times. And that resulted in the Hornets scrambling to find all the Spurs on the court.

That spelled trouble, considering Tony Parker and Ginobili are two of the NBA's best penetrating guards. It didn't even matter that San Antonio missed several wide-open 3-pointers, making just eight of 26 from behind the arc.

Perhaps the most telling stat in that thing you call a box score is that San Antonio registered 27 assists on 39 made shots. New Orleans, meanwhile, had just 12 assists to 13 turnovers.

That's unbelievable, considering Paul by himself usually dishes out a dozen A's himself.

Just as remarkable was Paul's meager five assists. The point guard made 10 of 16 shots and scored a game-high 23 points, but the Spurs clearly did exactly what they planned to do on defense.

They didn't overplay Paul, instead allowing him to take as many outside shots as he wanted. And they took away his teammates. For the first time all year, perhaps, Paul didn't find Tyson Chandler for an alley-oop dunk. And open shots were few and far between for the Hornets who shoot it best — specifically Stojakovic (3 of 9) and Peterson (2 of 8).

(By the way, Gregg Popovich deserves his own column for being the NBA's best coach; he doesn't get the credit he deserves simply because of the players he has.)

Now the question is how shaken the Hornets are. They unquestionably are capable of winning two more games, but everyone has to play his role. There's a basketball saying, "Role players play better at home." If that stands true, New Orleans will win the series.

But West better remember that he's a good shooter; Chandler has to return to making smart, aggressive plays instead of picking up his fifth foul in the third quarter; Stojakovic needs to work harder to get open where Paul can find him; and everyone else has to regain the looseness that allowed them to win the first two games.

Otherwise, it will be a sad ending to what's been a great season.

On the other side, don't expect veterans Finley, Bruce Bowen and others to forget what they're supposed to do for their team. They've been in their roles for years now, and they can't argue with the results.

And as Finley demonstrated, the experienced Spurs are always thinking and reacting on the court. Even in the aftermath of a positive play in a lopsided game.

On Sunday, that wasn't the case for New Orleans. And the result is a pressure-packed Game 5 in front of their home fans, who will attempt to wake them up.

We can only wait and see with Shaq

ON BASKETBALL

Plenty of people have opinions on last week's trade of Shaquille O'Neal from Miami to Phoenix for Shawn Marion and Marcus Banks.

My friend Cosey — as well as thousands of other hoops fans — think O'Neal is washed up and won't be of much use to the Suns. In other words, he won't win that elusive championship for Steve Nash n' Co.

ESPN.com columnist Scoop Jackson — and thousands of others, but not as many thousands — think O'Neal is the key ingredient the Suns have been lacking the past few years. They point to his defensive presence. They say Marion and big man Amare Stoudemire quarreled too much. They agree with the trade.

The truth?

We don't know and we won't know for quite a while.

O'Neal hasn't played since mid-January with a hip injury. He's back to working out, but will he be able to stay healthy? There remain two months of regular-season play plus that nearly-two-month playoff circus. That's almost four months. Can O'Neal endure that?

How will he fit in the Suns' run-n'-gun system? Some analysts have said that the older you get, the easier it is to run north-south as opposed to making quick, lateral movements. But don't tell me O'Neal's gonna run the fast-break quick enough to receive a dime from Nash ahead of the defense.

That's one thing I don't see happening.

But here's something Phoenix can look forward to with O'Neal. If, indeed, he is healthy come playoff time, he'll be valuable in half-court sets — and the action tends to slow down late in the season. Say what you want to about O'Neal, but he still draws double-teams and remains a deft passer out of the post. When possessions are breaking down, O'Neal will be a viable option (again, if he's healthy).

The defensive end is where O'Neal could be most valuable. Stoudemire has not developed into the defensive force Phoenix fans hoped he would. He shows flashes of solid play here and there, but he can't consistently thwart players such as Tim Duncan and Carlos Boozer.

When Stoudemire and O'Neal are both in the game, Stoudemire will be able to play power forward and leave the toughest defensive assignment to O'Neal. Call O'Neal immobile if you'd like, but ask any NBA player who he's most intimidated by — and I bet Shaq's still near the top of the list.

But forget X's and O's. The biggest question mark of thousands is whether O'Neal will be on the court enough to make a solid impact. I'd say he needs to play a good 20 minutes a night for the Suns to survive the Western Conference and make the NBA Finals.

On Monday, after his first practice, he admitted that he was a bit winded running up and down the court with the Suns. But in O'Neal's defense, he had been completely sidelined for three weeks.

A good thing for the Suns is the timing of the deal. O'Neal is rested. The team has the West's best record and doesn't need to rush him back into action. If O'Neal plays, say, the Suns' final 25 games (they're 36-15), he should be in good form — but not too fatigued — heading into the playoffs.

That's what has made O'Neal effective in the past. He'd miss the first half of the season with some injury — or lazy syndrome — and then roar into April with a full head of steam. While I don't foresee any roaring from O'Neal, if he has half a head of steam, the Suns will be in good shape.

Of course, even if O'Neal plays well, that doesn't guarantee anything in the mighty West. San Antonio remains the team to beat in the playoffs. The Lakers will be scary if Andrew Bynum comes back strong. And don't forget about Dallas, Utah and even New Orleans (oh, and always-dangerous Golden State).

It is clear that this year more than ever, winning the NBA's superior conference will be as exhausting as a trip up Mt. Everest (before the days of billionaires paying guides to drag them up the mountain). Games will be slug-fests. Series sweeps will be minimal.

By May, O'Neal might wish he were back in the "Leastern Conference."

Or he might be having the time of his career helping the Suns finally reach their goal.

You can guess all you want. All we know right now is ... well ... nothing.

Show us what you can do, big fella!

All the NBA needed was one night

ON BASKETBALL

It's a shame the Houston-Los Angeles Lakers game didn't end until after 1 a.m. Tuesday night on the East Coast. The theater was that great. Even for a first game of an 82-game season.

As I stood in my living room, on my tiptoes, my heart beating fast, watching the Lakers erase a 12-point deficit in the final 1:36 before Houston's Shane Battier hit the game-winning 3-pointer, I forgot about the NBA's awful summer.

I stopped thinking about Tim Donaghy. About the awful Finals ratings from June. About Kobe Bryant's incessent trade demands.

Ironically, Bryant was at the center of Opening Night's action, lighting up the Staples Center with 45 points after he was booed while being introduced. Critics can say all they want about Bryant's constant complaints and selfish play, but no one can argue that he doesn't play his heart out every game when he's on the court.

And, boy, is he fun to watch. Even with the Rockets up by an insurmountable 12 points and the Lakers faithful heading for the exits, Bryant didn't quit on his current (but maybe not for long) team, launching the improbable comeback with a three-point play followed by a 3-pointer.

Rumors have swirled the past couple days about a possible trade involving Bryant becoming a Chicago Bull. If Lakers management wants its team to remain in the conversation when discussing the NBA, it better not deal Bryant. He is the lone reason fans still pack the Staples Center. He is the only reason the otherwise morbid Lakers still receive attention nationwide. Sans Bryant, the Lakers could become (gasp!) the Clippers.

Tuesday night was a long-awaited night for NBA commissioner David Stern. The best franchise in sports, the San Antonio Spurs, received their championship rings before defeating the young Portland Trail Blazers. The Spurs added a win on Wednesday to stay perfect at 2-0.

If Stern is ever accosted by a critic who says, "Your entire league is a scam," Stern can point toward The Alamo as evidence to the contrary. Not only do the Spurs win, but their superstar, Tim Duncan, understands how to increase their chances of adding more NBA titles in the next five years.

Duncan signed a two-year, $40 million extension Tuesday that will keep him in San Antonio through the 2011-12 season. He could have asked — and gotten — $51 million, but he keenly realized that the $11 million he didn't take could be used to re-sign other key players, so he made the sacrifice.

Find me one other superstar who volunteers to accept $11 million less for the sake of his organization. Stern, who was in attendance Tuesday night, should have given Duncan a big bear hug and thanked him for giving the league some positive publicity.

But compared to the burn the NBA sustained during the summer, the league must feel pretty comfortable now that the games have begun. When the biggest issue in the news is whether Bryant will be traded, things are balmy for the NBA.

Sure, there will be Donaghy references throughout the season whenever fans (or Mark Cuban) are upset with a ref's calls, but Stern n' Company undouubtedly are prepared.

As long as the basketball is as entertaining as it was on Opening Night, Stern can smile — or at least sit and relax for a minute.

The NBA's product remains pretty enticing.