NFL playoffs preview

ON FOOTBALL

I can't remember the last time there was as big a favorite entering the playoffs as there is this year.

New England is a 1-2 favorite to win the Super Bowl. The team with the second-best odds is Indianapolis, which has a 4-1 shot.

So, basically, people are pretty high on these Patriots. Guess that's what happens when you go 16-0.

But something tells me that these playoffs are going to be the craziest in quite some time. There will be upsets galore. Crazy weather. Heart-pumping finishes. Not just a unsympathetic romp to 19-0 by another Boston-based team.

I might be wrong. Heck, I'm probably wrong — picking against the Patriots is about as smart as wearing a T-shirt outside in Boston this time of year.

But what fun would it be picking the favorite? With that said, here's my playoffs preview:

WILD CARD ROUND

NFC

(6) Washington 27, (3) Seattle 20: Unlike in sports with longer seasons, such as the NBA, momentum means something entering the playoffs. No team – besides those 16-0 guys — has more of it than the Redskins.

(5) N.Y. Giants 24, (4) Tampa Bay 18: Speaking of momentum, the Giants played their best game a week ago. Now, Eli Manning will step up in the playoffs and finally lead them to the divisional round.

AFC

(3) San Diego 27, (6) Tennessee 10: The teams' first meeting was a battle, but the Titans' injury list is almost as long as their active roster. Plus, the Chargers have won six straight games.

(5) Jacksonville 20, (4) Pittsburgh 14: The Jaguars run the ball well and don't turn it over. That will be enough to win in adverse conditions once again in Pittsburgh. Coming in, the Steelers have not been playing good football.

DIVISIONAL ROUND

NFC

(6) Washington 28, (1) Dallas 27: Remember what happened a week ago? Sure, the Cowboys didn't have T.O., but the Redskins owned Tony Romo and ran roughshed over the 'Boys. It will be closer in Dallas, but the same shocking result.

(2) Green Bay 33, (5) New York 21: I find it interesting how little is being talked about the Packers despite their dominance from week to week. There's no way they're losing at home in January.

AFC

(1) New England 24, (5) Jacksonville 16: Not an easy win for the Patriots, but Randy Moss breaks free for a touchdown and the defense is steady.

(2) Indianapolis 26, (3) San Diego 17: Last time these teams played, Peyton Manning threw six interceptions in the rain. This time, in the dome, Manning is very efficient, and Philip Rivers throws the picks.

CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIPS

NFC

(2) Green Bay 28, (6) Washington 17: The Redskins lose their magic inside frigid Lambeau Field as the Packers, boosted by that improved running game and the reborn Brett Favre, return to the Super Bowl. The city goes absolutely beserk.

AFC

(2) Indianapolis 24, (1) New England 21: Even minus pass rusher Dwight Freeney, the Colts will make Brady n' Co. take sustained drives down the field. There will be no bombs to Moss. Meanwhile, Joseph Addai will repeat his standout performance from the teams' first meeting, and guess who will make the game-winning field goal? Yeah, you guessed it.

SUPER BOWL

... You'll have to wait a few weeks for this. I don't want to embarrass myself too much.

Home-field advantage could hurt Patriots

ON FOOTBALL

Late Sunday afternoon, with the sun setting above Gillette Stadium, all was bliss for the New England Patriots.

On a clean field, in good conditions, Tom Brady and Randy Moss continued their attack on the NFL's record books, hooking up twice in the Patriots' easy 28-7 win over hapless Miami.

New England is now 15-0, just one win away from a perfect regular season. It has home-field advantage locked up throughout the AFC playoffs. It has nothing to play for but perfection.

Only a Herculean effort will take down these Patriots. Only a close-to-perfect game. But it's possible, and the way the playoffs are shaping up, a visiting team might benefit from a trip to Foxboro.

(Note: Please wait to call me nonsensical until the end of this column.)

With Willie Parker done for the season, I don't consider Pittsburgh a threat to upend New England. No way, no how. And whoever gets that final wild card spot — the Titans or the Browns — probably won't make it past the first weekend, and even if they do, the Patriots will dispose of them.

So that leaves three teams, three challengers to the Patriots.

Let's start with the team that has the best chance of getting by New England, the Colts. Sure, Peyton Manning's great, but running back Joseph Addai makes that offense click. If the wind is swirling and there is rain or snow in Foxboro, expect Addai to get several carries.

And while New England's Laurence Maroney has been great the past couple weeks, I still give the edge to Addai. With Brady unable to throw accurate deep balls to Moss — unlike the bomb that jump-started New England's comeback win in Indy during the regular season — the Colts could pull the upset on the road.

The same can be said of the Chargers. Yes, Philip Rivers can't hold Brady's Q-tip, but — again — if the conditions are poor and the running game becomes crucial, I like the combination of LaDainian Tomlinson, Michael Turner and Darren Sproles to expose the weaknesses in New England's front seven. A mistake-free game by the Chargers could result in a win.

Finally, not to be forgotten, are the Jaguars, who are playing some of the league's best football right now. Running back Fred Taylor seems rejuvenated by reaching the 10,000-yard mark and subsequently being snubbed — yet again — by the Pro Bowl (how has he never made the "nobody cares" game?). Combines his cutback running with the power-forward motor of Maurice Jones-Drew, and the Jags have the rushing attack to eat up a lot of clock with Brady, Moss & Co. on the sideline.

So call me stupid, call me dumb, but forget all you because it's my birthday: If the New England weather cooperates and turns Gillette Field into a giant snow tub or Hurricane Shula, one of the aforementioned teams will knock off the mighty Patriots, sending Brady weeping back to Giselle, making Bill Belichick lash out at the refs, and causing the rest of the United States to breath a sigh of relief that Boston doesn't win everything.

Sure, it's as far-fetched as Belichick talking during a press conference, but nothing makes much sense these days.

Such as the Patriots winning too much for their own good.