Did the Phillies win too soon?

ON BASEBALL

I know this sounds preposterous, but the Philadelphia Phillies might have been better off losing Game 5 Wednesday night.

Provided, of course, that they return to the city of Brotherly Love and win Game 6 or 7 of the NLCS.

I know this sounds equally ludicrous, but the Tampa Bay Rays might be better off if they lose Game 5 Thursday night in Fenway Park.

Provided, of course, that they close the deal on their first World Series invitation in Game 6 or 7 back at Tropicana Field.

Before you call me a nut job or sports gambling addict, let me explain myself. This was, after all, the final Debate Night in America. Please, my friends, don't cross the aisle just yet.

I'm not suggesting, at all, that the Phillies shouldn't have given maximum effort in Wednesday's clinching game. And I'm not suggesting that the Rays shouldn't do the same against the defending champions Thursday night. Ask any Philly right now about how they feel, and they'll give you the typical, "Words can't explain..."

But numbers can explain that winning the NLCS or ALCS too soon can result in an odious Fall Classic experience. Just ask the Detroit Tigers of 2006. Just ask the Colorado Rockies of '07.

Two years ago on Oct. 14, the city of Detroit was in a frenzy. I wasn't there. In fact, I was 9,093 miles away in Sydney, Australia. But people back home relayed the craziness to me. The Tigers had just swept the Oakland A's in the ALCS. They were playing their best baseball of their remarkable turnaround season.

Meanwhile, St. Louis was slugging its way through a burn-for-burn series with the Mets. It wasn't decided until New York's Carlos Beltran got caught staring at a nasty curveball for a called strike three in Game 7. The date was Oct. 19.

On Oct. 21, the Fall Classic finally got underway. And you couldn't find a baseball fan — or expert — outside of St. Louis who thought the Cardinals would win the Series. Of course, we all know what transpired after that.

Cardinals 4, Tigers 1, with the lone win coming in controversial fashion as Kenny Rogers had some foreign substance on his left pitching hand. Five errors by Tigers' pitching. An absolute no-show by their suddenly impotent lineup.

All it took was a week away from the competitive diamond for the Tigers to lose their magic. Some say their pitchers should have practiced throwing the ball to first and third during the time off. I think they should have scrimmaged some fall-league teams.

Then came 2007. And another magical story. This time it was the Colorado Rockies, winning 14 of their final 15 regular-season games — including a one-game, 13-inning playoff drama against San Diego — and then breezing through an NLDS sweep of the Phillies and a four-game undressing of Arizona.

Before the people of Denver realized there was a professional team in their city besides the Broncos, the Rockies were in the World Series. A shocking euphoria followed. But, alas, the winner of 21 of 22 games ran into its toughest opponent yet.

A long break from baseball.

It was even worse than the Tigers' respite a year earlier. The Rockies clinched the N.L. pennant on Oct. 15. The World Series wasn't scheduled to begin until Oct. 24! Matt Holliday could have visited all seven continents, solved global warming and started a campaign for president in that time.

Meanwhile, the Boston Red Sox were in the midst of gaining as much momentum as possible leading right up to the beginning of the Fall Classic. As they battled back from a 3-1 ALCS deficit to the Indians, Coco Crisp had to cancel his three-day mini vacation in Cabo. There'd be no time for fooling around.

Heck, the Red Sox barely took off their uniforms after winning Game 7 the night of Oct. 21. The Series commenced on the 24th.

After three dominating victories over the Indians, the red-hot Sox — whom nobody questioned was the better team — put a stake in Colorado's 10-game winning streak in the opener and proceeded to roll to an easy four-game sweep.

Since then, Denver sports fans have once again forgotten about the baseball team that inhabits their football-crazed city.

I hate to play the what-if game, but once every couple months or two is OK. Not to take anything away from the '06 Cardinals — whom have been called, by the way, the worst World Series champion in baseball history — or the '07 Red Sox, but I'd be curious to see how those series would have turned out if the Tigers and Rockies, respectively, hadn't faced such long breaks between series.

Which brings me back to this season. Right now the Phillies are riding high, playing great baseball, brimming with confidence. But will they be this sharp in a week? Will Cole Hamels hit his targets like he did in two dominating NLCS performances? These, I believe, are legitimate questions.

Part of me wants, for the sake of fairness, the Rays to close out the Red Sox Thursday night. At least that way both Fall Classic participants would face almost equally long breaks. They'd both have to deal with the issue of how to spend five or six days away from the diamond. How to stay sharp? How to stay focused?

But if Tampa Bay is lucky enough to face a short Boston Renaissance before closing out the Red Sox in Game 6 or 7 Saturday or Sunday, I'll give a clear edge to the Rays over the Phillies. Not only are they a great team, overflowing with confident young pitchers and a lineup every bit as explosive as the Phillies', they'd still have the taste of bubbly in their mouths when they take the field Wednesday night.

Don't underestimate that factor.

Of course, I haven't even mentioned the other possibility, but I think we all have a pretty good idea of what would transpire in the World Series if the Red Sox somehow pull off another ALCS comeback from a 3-1 series deficit.

Yep, three titles for Boston in five years.

I don't see that happening, however. Tampa Bay is playing way too well right now. The Rays aren't simply beating the Red Sox, they're embarrassing them — and in front of the Fenway Faithful.

But don't think that another dominating Game 5 performance would necessarily carry over to a still-distant Fall Classic. And definitely don't assume that the Phillies' brilliance in the NLCS will carry over.

Just ask the last two World Series runners-up.

Ecstasy and agony

ON BASEBALL

Entering Friday night's slate of games, the National League playoff picture was about as clear as the view from Mt. Everest's peak.

Seven teams were still alive. Not one playoff spot had been clinched. There was the possibility of five teams finishing with identical records. There were approximately 4,319 scenarios for how the weekend could turn out. Baseball fans were prepared for multiple one-game playoffs beginning Monday, with a chance of continuing through Wednesday.

Then the sky cleared. By about midnight, two playoff spots had been clinched — with the Diamondbacks earning a birth with their 4-2 win over the red-hot Rockies, and the Cubs clinching the Central Division due to their 6-0 win over Cincinnati's minor league lineup combined with Milwaukee's 6-3 loss to the Padres.

Also by midnight, two teams had been sent to the very edge of a steep cliff — with the Mets losing again, this time 7-4 to the lowly Marlins, which, combined with the Phillies' 6-0 dispatching of the Nationals, put the men in white and red a game up in the division with a game to play. And the Rockies, who had won 11 straight entering Friday, fell two games behind the Padres in the wild card due to their loss. Any Padres' win or Rockies' loss seals their fate.

Whew! What a crazy night it was.

So what does this all mean, besides the fact that we'll likely not have to face the decision of watching Monday Night Football versus a one-game playoff Monday night?

It means that the Mets are on the verge of completing the greatest late-season collapse since the 1964 Phillies — a bit ironic, considering who just took over the division lead.

It means that Philly sports fans might finally have something to cheer for — just watching them waving those white towels deliriously Friday night, you could tell they've been waiting for this.

And, believe me, if the Phillies hold on, no one will want to play them in the postseason. That lineup is scarier than a Wes Craven flick — keeping them in almost every game — and if the pitching staff gets its act together like Cole Hamels did Friday, in striking out 13 in eight shutout innings, I don't see why the Fighting Phils can't win the pennant.

But, wait, I'm getting ahead of myself. It's easy to discount the Mets, but it's not wise. All you have to do is look back a year to realize that the one thing that matters is getting in.

If — and, yes, I know the size of this "if" rather large — New York can win its final two games, force a playoff with the Phillies, who would have to lose one, and make the playoffs, it couldn't be counted out in the playoffs. Last season the Cardinals and Tigers limped to the regular season's finish line (with St. Louis finishing 3-9 and Detroit giving up the AL Central by losing five straight).

Nobody gave either team a fighting chance in the playoffs. Yankees' fans, I'm sure, were already thinking about the ALCS before their divisional series against the Tigers.

You know what ended up happening. Perhaps aided by the two-day hiatus from baseball, the Cardinals and Tigers got hot when it mattered and ended up in the World Series.

So, yes, it's possible, Mets fans. I know right now you're drowning in despair — and, honestly, it's probably the right recourse; your team likely is done. But, and this is a "but" the size of the Nutty Professor's, if a Philadelphia team lets its devoted fans down (um, has that ever happened??), and your Mets decide to extricate themselves from their grave...

OK, let's move on.

Most of the time baseball analysts are spot on when they say managers aren't as important to a team's success as coaches in other sports. But no baseball guru can play down the genius decision of Arizona skipper Bob Melvin Thursday afternoon.

With showers expected in Pittsburgh, Melvin decided to rest his ace, Brandon Webb, for Friday's huge game against division foe Colorado. Instead, he started super pitcher-hitter Micah Owings, who not only shut out the dismal Pirates, but also went 4-for-4 (on a side note, why don't more pitchers try to hit like Owings: .339 BA, four HRs, 15 RBIs).

Then Webb (18-10) cooled down the Rockies' bats at Coors Field — no small feat — leading Arizona straight into the playoffs.

Not very many people will expect the no-name, no-hitting D'Backs, who at 90-70 have been outscored by several runs, to make any noise in the playoffs. That, of course, makes them all the scarier. With Melvin pulling the strings and a bunch of young, hungry players with a nothing-to-lose attitude, Arizona could shock a lot of people this October.

Just like it did throughout the season.

Standing in the way of the D'Backs is America's team, the Cubs, Cubbies, Northsiders. Whether you are a Cubs fan or not, you can't deny that having them in the playoffs is good for baseball (not to mention TV ratings). With the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs and probably Phillies in the playoffs, this October could turn out to be one of the most remembered in baseball's long, storied history.

All season long, I didn't expect the Cubs to make the playoffs. Even after they overtook the collapsing Brewers for first place, I thought the surging Cardinals would stampede the Cubs. It just seemed like destiny.

A Cubs team with a huge payroll close to $100 million and all the parts... shouldn't make the playoffs. Makes perfect sense, doesn't it? And until Friday night, there was still that possibility.

Chicago had lost three straight to those same Mets-killing Marlins. I could sense the tension in the Windy City from nearly 300 miles away. Mercurial Carlos Zambrano was scheduled to pitch Friday night. A flameout was in the cards, wasn't it?

Not this time. The Cubs didn't waste any time in clinching the division. They didn't mess around with a Reds' lineup that was missing several key players. They kept building the lead until it was a safe 6-0. And then they waited to celebrate...

Until the final score came in from Milwaukee. The Brewers had lost. The Cubs were going back to the playoffs.

There was the traditional sipping and squirting of champagne. Relieved smiles all around. And, I'm sure, plenty of partying on the North Side.

But by the night's wee hours, the talk had turned to the playoffs. And a mission not yet accomplished.

These Cubs, despite featuring just three players from the 2003 team that came so close to the World Series (if you don't know the story, you're not reading this), know the pain that was caused four autumns ago. They're determined to bring the franchise its first World Series championship since 1908.

Their new mission begins next week. As does the Diamondbacks' mission.

By Saturday night, the other half of the National League picture might be cleared up. Or, it's possible, we'll have to wait until Sunday or Monday.

Whatever the case, the National League playoff outlook became much more lucid Friday night, turning uncertainty into ecstasy for a pair of teams while others took a step closer to October baseball and others a step toward October golf.