Championship game prediction: Picking the Tar Heels

ON BASKETBALL

Making this pick was far from easy. It was akin to choosing between peppermint and coffee ice cream — I love 'em both.

But when it came down to it, the peppermint simply has more flair than the coffee. Both have valuable attributes, but the peppermint's are just a little more capable.

Ya dig?

Well if you don't, this is what your bumbling writer is getting at: As good as the Michigan State Spartans are and as good as they're playing, the North Carolina Tar Heels are simply a little bit (a hair or two) better — and they've shown that throughout the NCAA Tournament.

Basically, the Heels can go out and play a decent game — like they did Saturday against Villanova — and still win if the Spartans are mediocre (as the Wildcats were). MSU, on the other hand, has to play a good game to win Monday night. Anything less will result in a loss.

If UNC plays its best, forgetaboutit.

So write down this score for me, but make sure to note that I'm not entirely confident in it.

North Carolina 84, Michigan State 75.

How could it be different X's and O's wise?

Well, if the Spartans can slow down ACC player of the year Ty Lawson. I think that's possible, considering how well Travis Walton has defended recently. Against Connecticut, he helped hold stud guard A.J. Price to 5-of-20 shooting and a minimal impact on the game.

If Lawson isn't his typical dominant self, that affects all the Heels.

The Spartans could also gain an advantage through their bench play. In the win over the Huskies, Korie Lucious was a huge difference-maker with 11 points. Durrell Summers added 10 and Draymond Green had eight, and the bench outscored UConn's by a ridiculous 33-7 margin.

The Heels have athletic big man Ed Davis on their bench, and he provides them with a good defensive presence and some rebounds. But he's not a scorer. Outside of him, only Bobby Frasor occasionally scores off the Heels bench.

So another strong effort by the Spartans reserves could make a huge difference.

And finally, there's the homecourt advantage. Not too much should be made of it since this is the national title game. We know the Heels won't be fazed by the extremely pro-MSU crowd inside Ford Field.

But the fans will help the Spartans if they get down. Fans will rise to their feet in an attempt to exhilarate their Spartans, get them back in the game. That can help a team find that last ounce of energy, that last push, when the players need it.

So there are a lot of reasons to believe the Spartans might pull their third straight upset of a No. 1 seed Monday night and set off a wild celebration in a state that desperately needs it.

There are just a couple more trustworthy reasons, however, to count on the Heels fulfilling their only real goal of the season.

I mentioned Lawson who, you know, is pretty darn good. No one's stopped him yet in the tournament. Walton has one heck of a task ahead of him.

Then there's Tyler Hansbrough, who you can bet will make the most of his final college game in what's seemed like a career spanning centuries. He'll, most likely, have another quiet but efficient night.

But perhaps most importantly, the Heels have two reliable 3-point shooters and, most importantly, clutch performers outside of the attention-grabbing Lawson.

Wayne Ellington is playing the best basketball of his career by far, and if he's left open he'll knock down dagger-like 3s. No MSU outside shooter can be counted on as much as Ellington.

And then there's senior Danny Green, who has become Mr. Big Shot for the Heels. He struggled at the beginning of the postseason in the ACC tournament and first couple games of the Big Dance, but he's rediscovered his shooting stroke at the right time.

Against Villanova, Green's two huge 3s — sandwiched around a Lawson layup — kept the feisty 'Cats at bay when they had cut what appeared an insurmountable deficit down to five points early in the second half.

Green killed their spirit with two flicks of his right wrist.

I'm banking on him, and Ellington, pulling off similar acts against the Spartans.

And while MSU has all the pieces of a national-title team assembled, they don't fit as smoothly together as North Carolina's do right now. They haven't been together as long as the Heels main cogs have.

The Spartans, if they avoid early departures to the NBA, might go out and win the thing next year.

But since October, this has been North Carolina's year. This has been the Heels destiny.

They seem too sturdy to fall a game short of accomplishing their long-awaited main objective.

And that's why, after 38 games, they'll finally get to celebrate without having to worry about a next task on their seemingly never-ending journey to the top of the college hoops world.

Final Four underdogs can win thanks to the 3-pointer

ON BASKETBALL

Let's not kid ourselves. No one is surprised that UConn and North Carolina are in Detroit today for the Final Four.

That's what we were projecting back in October. And three weeks ago before the NCAA Tournament, although many of us (yep, this guy included) thought Memphis might spoil the Huskies' bid.

The other pair of teams left in the Big Dance, however, weren't exactly favorites to make it this far. Not Michigan State, which had flown under the radar all season after getting blown off the floor by the Tar Heels in early December in the same venue — Ford Field — in which they'll play Saturday.

The Spartans had to continuously silent doubters after that, game by game until they "upset" No. 1 seed Louisville last Sunday. Now, playing just 90 miles from East Lansing, they're underdogs once again.

But not as big underdogs as the Wildcats of Villanova, who have to take on the mighty Heels — the team almost given the title before the season even began. Who, outside of Philly, is picking the 'Cats to advance to their first title game since 1985?

Um, no one.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves in predicting a battle of the big boys Monday night in Motown. Yes, UNC and UConn are the better, more talented teams. They "should" win.

But they might not. I, for one, wouldn't be surprised one bit.

After all, there's a big equalizer for the pair of underdogs.

The 3-pointer.

Look at the Tar Heels' four losses to date. When they were shocked at home by Boston College, the Eagles made nine 3s. Wake Forest was a terrible outside shooting team, but it shot 6-for-14 from the perimeter.

The main reason Maryland came back from a huge second-half deficit to upset the Heels? The Terrapins made 13 of 30 from behind the arc. And Florida State was 8-of-20 from downtown in its ACC Tournament win (although UNC was without its best player, Ty Lawson).

The bottom line is this: If Villanova makes its outside shots, it can win this game.

A lot was made after the Heels' 72-60 win over Oklahoma last Sunday to win the South region about how much of an improved defensive team they are. And don't get me wrong — they are better on that end of the floor than they were in January, when the Demon Deacons' Jeff Teague penetrated at will against the Heels.

They're better at guarding the basket, especially with freshman Ed Davis playing a bigger role. I'll give them that.

But they're not any better at guarding the 3-point arc. The bottom line to take from last weekend is this: Oklahoma's guards didn't show up to play. They missed wide-open 3 after wide-open 3, bricking their first 15 from deep.

A few made 3s, and that could have been a different game.

Villanova might not have a Blake Griffin to garner defenders' attention, but it will get plenty of open looks. That's because the Wildcats have a pair of guards in Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher who can penetrate the lane and create open outside shots for teammates.

Now, the Wildcats will have to step up and make 3s.

If they make 10 or more, I think they'll win the game. I'm not kidding.

The same can be said for the Spartans, who have an even better chance of pulling the upset.

Their biggest weapon might not look like a 3-point shooter, however. No one would expect, from looking at 6-foot-10 Goran Suton, that he'd have a smooth stroke from the perimeter.

But that's exactly what he demonstrated in the Spartans' masterful domination of Louisville last Sunday. Against the Cardinals' 2-3 zone, Suton three times stepped outside the paint and swished 3s.

He got open looks because defenders were uncomfortable guarding him 20 feet away from the basket. Suton's 3s sparked Michigan State's game-clinching run in the second half.

A benefactor was Durrell Summers, who connected on back-to-back 3s during the spurt. He's not short himself, at 6-4, and elevates over his defenders to shoot. Another dangerous weapon for underdog Sparty.

If Michigan State does what it did against Louisville — when it shot 8-for-16 from 3-point range — it can beat the Huskies. If Suton pulls his defenders away from the basket and makes 3s, UConn will have its issues.

Of course, there's another factor: If the favorites make just as many 3s, they could take away that advantage.

But the underdogs, to me, play much better defense on the perimeter. Consider what the Wildcats did against Duke, a good 3-point shooting team. They forced the Blue Devils into 5-of-27 shooting from behind the arc. They rattled them.

Don't expect the Heels to get a whole bunch of open 3s.

The Spartans are quietly, possibly the best defensive team in the country. They've only given up 70-plus points once since mid-January. And they rebound well.

Those attributes, along with a handful of 3s, could land them in the national title game.

Where they could face Villanova, believe it or not.

Am I predicting two surprises? I wouldn't go that far.

But I wouldn't be shocked, not at all, if we see an upset or two tonight.

Thanks to the great equalizer, the 3-point shot.