Letting a name and tradition fool you

ON BASEBALL

It's an easy trap to fall into, so I won't laugh at a friend for the text messages he sent me after Boston's wins over Tampa Bay in Game 5 of the ALCS Thursday night and Game 6 Saturday night.

After Boston's improbable 8-7 comeback for the ages Thursday: "Well that sucks that might break the Rays."

During Boston's hotly contested 4-2 win Saturday, when I texted him that I smelled a Game 7: "It will happen and tampa will probably lose which sucks."

My friend wasn't the only one. Without doing a lick of research, I can guarantee you that even with Boston down 3-2 and needing two wins in St. Petersburg, a good portion of this country smelled two Boston wins. I'll bet my house — OK, I don't own a house; but you get the point — that prior to Game 7 Sunday, the majority of America thought Boston had another World Series berth in the bag.

The reasons for these thoughts? It's very simple, actually: name recognition and tradition. In other words, Boston had won two World Series in four seasons; Tampa hadn't sniffed the postseason ... ever. Fenway Park is one of the most recognized sports venues in the country and hundreds of books have been written about the Red Sox; the Rays haven't even been the "Rays" for a year and have only been a franchise for 11 seasons.

To make a bad analogy, you walk into a store to buy a six-pack. On one rack is Samuel Adams (no Boston connection intended). You know what you'd be getting. You've sipped hundreds of SAs over the years. On the other rack is an ale you've only seen at a party yet. You took one from a friend, but you aren't convinced you want to buy it yourself.

You take the Sam Adams simply because of its name and your history of drinking it.

It's a poor call. Just like giving up on the Rays to win the ALCS after their Game 6 loss.

The series went seven games, but the Rays dominated the first six games. There was no arguing that they weren't the better team. Just examine Games 3 through 6, because the first two games — Boston 2-0, Tampa 9-8 in 11 innings — cancel each other out as very tight ballgames.

Tampa dominated Games 3 and 4, both at Fenway, by scores of 9-1 and 13-4. Their hitters owned Boston pitching, sending seven balls out of the park and slamming 27 hits. The big bats in Boston's lineup, primarily David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia, were as silent as Red Sox Nation during the blowouts.

We all know what happened in Game 5. The Rays dominated the game for six innings before two big Bostons swings, by Ortiz and , got the Red Sox back into the game after being down 7-0. A couple clutch hits later, Boston had an 8-7 victory.

Game 6 was a close contest throughout, with the most unlikely of home runs by Boston catcher Jason Veritek — his first and only hit of the series — and a Tampa Bay error allowing Boston to turn a 2-2 game into a 4-2 victory. It was a solid victory, closed out by Boston's bullpen, but in no way was it backbreaking. In no way was it a "Don't even bother showing up at the ballpark tomorrow" kind of win.

So the Rays showed up Sunday, loose and confident like they should have been. Of course they couldn't forget what had transpired the previous three days, but hey, they were still a game away from the Fall Classic. That's the attitude the precocious team took, and it worked wonders.

There was never a sense of panic, a whiff of desperation. When asked after Tampa's 3-1 Game 7 victory to "honestly" say whether there was doubt in the clubhouse, winning pitcher Matt Garza said there wasn't. I believe him.

You see, it's one thing when you get lucky in a game or two and squeak out a couple other games to get to a Game 7. In that scenario, it's hard for a team to be completely sure of itself. Living on the edge will do that to you. But entering Game 7, the Rays — have I said this already? — were the better team; they were the superior team during 162 regular-season games, and they were for the first six games of the series.

Still, the money was on Boston because it's, well, "Boston." I can't say I blame people. I'm no betting man, but with my minimal income, it would have been tough to bet on the Rays Sunday.

It happens in all sports all the time. The newcomer to the grand stage is written off — again, and again and again. Never mind that they've proven themselves countless times. Until they win that first championship, people doubt they have the chutzpah to pull it off.

Just look at the Pistons' easy series win over the Lakers in the 2004 NBA Finals. People kept doubting the unfamiliar group of Detroit players, even as they dominated the familiar Lakers. Picking Kobe and Shaq, and their three previous championships, was easier (and, of course, just plain dumb, especially after wins by Detroit in Games 1, 3 and 4).

It occurs in college sports as well. I was inside Michigan Stadium last year when Appalachian State knocked off the mighty Wolverines. Even as the Wildcats led Michigan for most of the game, there was a sense among the Big House faithful that it couldn't possibly happen. That a tiny school from Boone, N.C., couldn't knock off fabled Michigan.

We all know what transpired.

And now the Rays are in the World Series, and anyone who continues to doubt them — regardless of how they fare in the World Series — is a complete nut job.

In fact, barring major offseason developments, anyone who doesn't predict the Rays to repeat as American League East champs next season will be disillusioned as well. With a super young team full of improving starting pitchers and everyday guys who play great defense, run the bases well and have power ... well, this team is here to stay for the long haul.

Oh, and did I mention that the man on the mound for Boston's final four outs Sunday was a kid, 23, who had pitched in a whopping five regular-season games?

Yep, that's right. David Price isn't going anywhere. And neither are most of his teammates.

You can doubt them if you want. Go ahead and pick the older Yankees or Red Sox to win the division next year.

Just know that you'll likely be basing your prediction more on the past than what's actually the case today.

And you probably won't be the only one.

A magical night at Fenway, but Rays remain in control

ON BASEBALL

Terry Francona said it best in his postgame news conference:

"That was pretty magical."

Indeed, it was. What transpired in Boston Thursday night was almost surreal, like one of those dreams that you never want to wake up from. As the Red Sox continued to bite into Tampa Bay's seemingly insurmountable 7-0 lead, I almost expected to wake up to reality.

But there was nothing fake about it. And if Boston can somehow turn it into two wins in St. Petersburg followed by four victories over the Phillies, Oct. 16, 2008, will go down in Red Sox lore along with those incredible nights in mid-October 2004.

I, for one, don't see that happening. Despite the devastation the Rays must be feeling right now, despite the absolute collapse by their usually stout bullpen, how can they not still feel good about themselves?

It might not feel this way, but the Rays are actually up 3-2 in the best-of-seven series. And they're going home to their cowbell-banging fans in Florida. You can add to that the fact that their No. 1 pitcher, James Shields, will start Game 6 Saturday night.

I liked the Rays before Thursday's game to win the series, and I still think they'll close out the defending champions. I give them a 75 percent chance.

But back to the magic. Late Thursday night was why I watch sports, why I never turn off a game prematurely, why most goosebumps I've experienced in 24-plus years are a direct result of moments like David Ortiz's three-run, seventh inning home run to slice the Rays' lead to 7-4...

And J.D. Drew's two-run shot in the eighth to narrow the gap to 7-6...

At that point, it didn't matter that I wanted the Rays to win the series. For a few spine-tingling innings, I joined Red Sox Nation. And when Coco Crisp fought off so many 3-2 pitches that my phone died as I talked with Dad — in the middle of the crucial at bat — I knew the magic wasn't gone.

A few seconds later, Crisp drilled the baseball into right field, tying the game 7-7. I got goosebumps for the third time of the night and called Dad back. It was a moment, a game, a comeback to share with others.

At that point, I almost felt as if the comeback was complete. The Red Sox might have felt the same way, considering there was a minor ninth-inning letdown. Two Rays runners reached base, and suddenly the thought occurred to me that everything accomplished the two previous innings could instantly be for naught. A Carlos Pena base hit could give the lead right back to the Rays.

But it simply wasn't meant to be. This was the Red Sox's night — like so many have been the past three years. When Pena hit a groundball directly to second baseman Dustin Pedroia, setting up an easy inning-ending double play, the outcome became clear to me.

What followed was almost anticlimactic. Tampa Bay threw the home team a bone when third baseman Evan Longoria threw away Kevin Youkilis' two-out grounder up the line. Two batter later, Drew sent the Fenway fans — those who remained in the stadium, at least — home delirious with a final base hit, one last RBI.

The magic show was over. And what a show it was.

Consider just how badly the Rays had dominated Boston for two straight games plus six innings Thursday (all at Fenway): They'd outscored the Red Sox 29-5; they'd fooled Boston's big hitters — Ortiz, Pedroia included — into looking meager; they'd pounded pitch after over or against the Green Monster.

There was no reason — none at all — to expect anything out of Boston after the seventh-inning stretch. Even when Pedroia plated a run with a single to make the score 7-1, the only notable was that Boston wouldn't be shut out in a home playoff game, continuing some streak that I can't even remember.

Heck, Tampa hadn't given up more than a three-run lead all season.

But when "Big Papi" jacked the homer into the right-field stands, the impossible suddenly became quite plausible. Just like that, with one swing of the bat.

Isn't it amazing how 7 seconds, or so, can alter the course of history?

Considering the magnitude of the game, at this moment I'll call it the greatest comeback I've ever watched. This opinion will change, of course, if the Rays close out Boston Saturday or Sunday. If that's the case, this story loses much of its luster.

But at least for two days, what the Red Sox did Thursday night in one of two great ballparks left in the country — and we all know the stigma the other park carries — should be embraced as nothing short of remarkable, as one of the great feats in American sports history.

And in an ironic twist of fate for Red Sox Nation: Drew's game-winning hit occurred within a minute of the five-year anniversary of Aaron Boone's walkoff homer that sent the Yankees to their last World Series and Boston fans weeping and cursing the Bambino.

Since that moment, all the magic's been on the Red Sox's side.

Young hungry players led '07 Red Sox

ON BASEBALL

(Editor's Note: This column will not contain one mention of the Yankees or Alex Rodriguez. Neither party deserves to steal the national spotlight (at least for now) from the one and only 2007 World Series champions, the Boston Red Sox.)

The Boston Red Sox have done it again. They've won their second World Series in four years after going dry from 1918 until 2004.

But anyone who thinks the 2004 and 2007 Red Sox were similar teams is kidding themselves. The team on the field Sunday night bore close to no resemblance to the comeback kids of '04.

Sure, there were the stars — David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez and Jason Varitek — in the field, and the veteran presence of Curt Schilling in the dugout, but all around them were new faces. And the new faces were the main contributors this October, helping to place the city of Boston in a state of utopia (with the Red Sox winning, the indomitable Patriots 8-0, Boston "freakin!" College No. 2 in the BCS and the Celtics about to tip-off the most anticipated season in 20 years).

In 2004 it was closer Keith Foulke shutting down the St. Louis Cardinals and then jumping into the embrace of Veritek after the final out. In 2007, while Varitek remained the catcher, young buck Jonathan Papelbon was the shutdown closer. It was the peppy Papelbon who leaped into Varitek's arms after striking out Seth Smith to finish off the WS sweep after the seven-game, come-from-behind ALCS victory over Cleveland.

Without Papelbon, there's no way the Red Sox would be World Series champions. He was impeccable during the postseason, not allowing a single run — and just five hits — in 10-plus innings. Even after setup man Hideki Okajima allowed a two-run homer in the eighth inning of Game 4, which cut Boston's lead to 4-3, you knew Papelbon would come in and finish the deal.

No doubt about it. There's one key new guy.

Let's examine the starting pitching. In 2004 it was Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe, Schilling and Tim Wakefield who shut down the Cardinals. In 2007 Schilling was still a part of the rotation — albeit sans a bloody sock — but Wakefield was left off the World Series roster with an injury, and it was a trio of newcomers who got the job done.

Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jon Lester, who was the winning pitcher of the clinching game despite going through lymphoma treatment just nine months earlier — an absolutely remarkable feat. Beckett has moved himself alongside Reggie Jackson in the October Hall of Fame with his postseason performances.

First there he was in 2003, pitching a shutout on three days rest to clinch the World Series for the Marlins in Yankee Stadium. Then there was '07, when Beckett was 4-0 in the postseason, including his huge Game 5 outing in the ALCS, which flipped the momentum switch from the Indians to the Red Sox, who didn't lose again.

Three new pitchers, great results.

And how about the Sox' feisty, young lineup. Ortiz and Ramirez didn't get the big hits in this Fall Classic. Rather it was the "other" guys, the players we could have mistaken for supermarket workers in '04.

There was Jacoby Ellsubry, a late-season callup, collecting four hits in Game 3 and sparking his team once again with two hits and a run scored in the clincher. He hit .438 in the series.

There was Dustin Pedroia, a 5-foot-9, 180-pound little squirt who could be mistaken for a UPS driver on the street, knocking the big two-run double in Game 3 that all but ended Colorado's hopes at turning around the series.

There was Julio Lugo, as skinny as a pogo stick, hitting .385 in the series and quietly playing flawless defense at shortstop.

I could name more new, unselfish players who contributed for the '07 Red Sox, but I figure you want me to get to my point.

Well here it is: In team sports today, championship teams (with the rare exception of the San Antonio Spurs) cannot simply bring back the same group of players season after season and expect to win. Yes, even the Patriots' roster this season is drastically different from the makeup of their 2004 championship team.

New blood has to be brought in. Players eager to prove themselves and reach the pinnacle of sports need to become integral parts of the organization. Even if they say they are, most players who have won a championship do not have the same drive to win another one. With their comfortable salaries and their perfectly fitting championship rings, they can live without reaching the zenith of their profession again.

This usually affects their play, even if the difference isn't noticeable. If you examine important members of the '04 Red Sox, such as Martinez, Johnny Damon and Kevin Millar, they haven't been the same players since. Of course injuries are a factor — especially when talking about Martinez — but so is desire. When you've already proven that you can buck the odds, that you can become a member of the first team in baseball history to come back from a 3-0 series deficit, you don't need to show the world a thing. You have nothing left to prove.

This year's Red Sox had something to prove. Their clubhouse overflowed with players who had never made it to baseball's biggest stage, who were unknown in baseball circles outside of Boston. Even veterans such as Beckett and Mike Lowell, the World Series MVP, had a chip on their shoulder.

Both players had won the 2003 World Series with Florida, but had fallen into oblivion in the following years. Both signed pretty hefty contracts with Boston in 2006, but failed to deliver the Red Sox to the playoffs in their first year. Playing in front of the skeptical eyes of Red Sox Nation, both had to show the organization that it hadn't made a mistake in bringing them to Beantown.

Mission accomplished.

Now the talk amongst RSN is that the Red Sox have the pieces to compete for multiple championships in the years to come. And they do. Papelbon, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Lugo, Lester — they're all young. And Lowell, Beckett and Ortiz aren't too old themselves.

But Boston should also be cautious. Don't become too stagnant. Don't let any player become too comfortable. Just look at what's happened to the White Sox since they won the World Series in 2005. They fell all the way to fourth place in the AL Central this year with many of the same players (but not close to the same production) from the special '05 squad.

The 2007 Red Sox were special in their own way. Just like the '04 Red Sox. And if Boston is to win another championship in the years to come, it will likely occur with several new faces.

Hungry to compete on that grandest of stages. And hungry to hold that trophy and spray that sweetest-tasting champagne on earth.

All for the first time.

Wednesday, 8/15/07's main point: Baseball's pennant races on fire

ON BASEBALL

When, during the middle of my vacation, I heard that Barry Bonds had finally hit a couple home runs, broken Hank Aaron's record, hugged his kid and given an emotional speech, I breathed a sigh of relief.

Not because I was happy for Barry or Bud Selig, who could turn his mind to other issues. No, I was happy because the completion of Bond's chase for the home run record allowed the focus in baseball to be shifted to where it ought to be this time of year: the pennant races.

And what a finish we are in store for. Not a single division has been decided. Anything could happen in all six divisions. I'm not even talking about a crazy comeback, either, like the Astros' late surge a year ago.

The largest lead a division leader owns is Boston's five-game advantage over the Yanks. If you think that's safe, remind yourself of that five-game series between the hated rivals a year ago. (Hint: Yankees swept). These teams play each other six more times. The Yanks are far from dead in this race.

Here's a look at the six races, with uneducated opinions included:

AMERICAN LEAGUE

AL Central
Jake's Take: This race is so up in the air, I'm going to base my thinking on a single game — last night's 6-2 win for Detroit over Cleveland. Jeremy Bonderman put together a very solid outing, the bullpen hung tough, and the Tigers got very timely hitting, including a three-run home run from Magglio Ordonez in the 10th inning. I like Detroit's experience over Cleveland's relative youth. I also give the Tigers an advantage in close games, such as last night's. Should be fun to watch.
Prediction: 1, Detroit. 2, Cleveland (2 GB). 3, Minnesota (7 GB).

AL East
Jake's Take: What's interesting about this race is that while everybody's talking about the Yankees putting pressure on the Red Sox, the Sox have been playing great. After a 2-1 comeback win Tuesday night, they're 25 games above .500, the most they've been all season. Plus, their pitching is set, with Jon Lester back in the rotation. Their only worry? Eric Gagne has been awful. The Yanks will cool down a bit, opening the door for the Sox to cruise into October.
Prediction: 1, Boston. 2, New York (6 GB).

AL West
Jake's Take: Who would have thought back in May that the division would be this close? Count me among the doubters. The Mariners, just three games back of the Angels (not to mention tied for the wild card with the Yanks), have surprised just about everybody, and now several pundits are calling them a playoff team. But how? Sure, they have a lights-out bullpen, but their lineup isn't exactly feared and neither are their starting pitchers. I don't see them catching the Angels (especially if can return and become a serviceable starter once again).
Prediction: 1, Los Angeles. 2, Seattle (4 GB).

NATIONAL LEAGUE

NL Central
Jake's Take: This race could be downright ugly. Seriously. The Brewers and Cubs, separated by a game and a half, are playing as if they'd rather hit the links come October (Milwaukee is 4-6 and Chicago is 3-7 their last 10 games). By playing so poorly, they've opened the door for the champion Cardinals, who linger just four and a half games out. This could get so hectic, I'm not even ruling out the Astros, who are eight out. The Brewers, who have struggled on the road all season (13 games under .500), have 27 of their final 43 games away from home. They're done. The Cubs are chokers. They're done. The Astros are a little too far out. So that leaves the Cardinals...
Prediction: 1, St. Louis. 2, Chicago (1.5 GB). 3, Milwaukee (3 GB). 4, Houston (6.5 GB).

NL East
Jake's Take: This division isn't going to be quite as hectic as the Central, but there will still be plenty of drama. The Mets have officially invited Philly and HotLanta to the party, and their not rain-checking. The Phillies, with Mr. Second Half, Ryan Howard, are just three games out. The Braves, with Mr. "I'm so happy I'm no longer a Ranger," Mark Teixeira, are three and a half out. All three teams are playing good, but not great, baseball. Atlanta has history on its side (remember the 14 straight division titles?). The Mets have recent success on their side (last year). And the Phillies? Well, they're due, right? Hmm, that sounds too much like a sentence about the Cubs. I'll go with the current leader.
Prediction: 1, New York. 2, Philly (2 GB). 3, Atlanta (3 GB).

NL West
Jake's Take: Believe it or not, this race used to be juicier. But the Dodgers have made the jobs of prognosticators like myself easier by completing tanking, falling six and a half games behind the surprising Diamondbacks. So, for the sake of not overloading this paragraph, let's call the Dodgers done (hit me in October when they win the division). Which leaves us with the D-back, Padres (two back) and Rockies (five back). In other words, the small-market teams of the division. How the D-backs continue to win is beyond me. Their lineup is as threatening as a prairie dog. Without the Big Unit, nobody's scared of their pitching. But they win. Works for me, I guess. The Padres' pitching is much more daunting as is the Rockies' hitting. The statistic-minded analyst would pick one of them. But I'm a moxy guy. I like winners, even if they don't appear on the back of cereal boxes. That's why I'm sticking with the "How do they win?" D-backs.
Prediction: 1, Arizona. 2, San Diego (1.5 GB). 3, Colorado (3.5 GB). 4, Los Angeles (5 GB).

As you can tell, all six races are up in the air right now, waiting to be grabbed — kinda like Barry's No. 756 before that Mets fan snagged it.

And I haven't even discussed the wild card.