College football's greatest play... ever

ON COLLEGE FOOTBALL

If you haven't seen it by now, watch it now.

The most incredible, ridiculous, unbelievable play in college football's long history. Better than the Cal-Stanford miracle, Kordell Stewart's Hail Mary to beat Michigan and every other great play that has defined college football throughout the years.

Trinity University (Texas), a Division 3 school, proved Saturday why you should never give up hope, why you should never let yourself be tackled on the last play of the game when you need to score. Trinity used 15 laterals to complete an improbable 61-yard touchdown on the final play to defeat Millsaps College in the wildest ending to a game I've ever seen.

A few times during the play, it appeared the a Trinity player was about to be tackled, but each time he got rid of the ball before being thrown to the turf. Each time a teammate was able to get behind him to receive his toss.

I've seen hundreds of ends to Division 1 games where a player lets himself be tackled on the final play instead of throwing the ball over his shoulder to keep the play alive. Sure, the chances of scoring are about as likely as the Rockies coming back to win this World Series, but — hey — there's a chance.

Don't think so? Just watch Trinity's miracle. It'll make you believe.

Week 8 NFL picks

ON FOOTBALL

It's too bad the Colts and Patriots have to play next week, because I seriously believe if they didn't they'd both have a shot at going undefeated. They are that good.

It's also too bad they're in the same conference, which means the AFC championship game will be more climatic than the Super Bowl (like usual).

Of course everything can change in the course of an afternoon. Tom Brady could break his right hand. Peyton Manning could fall down the stairs and fracture his left leg. But neither of those scenarios is likely.

OK, time to get to the picks. Two of them are no-brainers. The rest are not so easy, as I try to improve on last week's 9-5 record and boost my 53-35 overall mark.

At London: NY Giants (5-2) 31, Miami (0-7) 10: Anyone who watches this game is wasting a beautiful afternoon.

At Cincinnati (2-4) 27, Pittsburgh (4-2) 21: Huge divisional game. Bengals can get back into race with win.

At Tennessee (4-2) 23, Oakland (2-4) 14: Three more field goals for Rob Bironas.

At Chicago (3-4) 31, Detroit (4-2) 17: The Lions win at home and get killed on the road. No change here.

At Minnesota (2-4) 21, Philly (2-4): Must-win game for both teams. Ugly. Plenty of turnovers. Home team survives.

Cleveland (3-3) 34, at St. Louis (0-7) 13: Man, the Rams are terrible. St. Louis fans are already focusing on college hoops season and the arrival of Rick Majerus.

Buffalo (2-4) 19, at NY Jets (1-6) 13: The Bills have more to play for.

At San Diego (3-3) 28, Houston (3-4) 21: Chargers pull off comeback victory in front of raucous home crowd just excited to be witnessing football game.

At Tampa Bay (4-3) 20, Jacksonville (4-2) 10: Brutal defensive battle in which Bucs batter backup Jags QB Quinn Gray.

New Orleans (2-4) 27, at San Francisco (2-4) 17: 49ers continue slide while Saints quietly creep into the playoff race, winning their third straight.

At New England (7-0) 31, Washington (4-2) 13: No chance for Redskins in Foxboro. Gosh, life in Boston must be great right now.

Indianapolis (6-0) 27, at Carolina (4-2) 14: No Marvin Harrison, no problem for Colts.

Green Bay (5-1) 28, at Denver (3-3) 24: On Monday Night Football stage, Brett Favre shines once again.

I'm out. Enjoy the Pats' and Colts' dominance.

My one and only NBA preview

ON BASKETBALL

The second-best time of the year (behind March Madness) is here, folks.

Not only is the baseball season at its climax and the football games gaining importance by the weekend, but hoops season is days away.

Here in Durham/Chapel Hill, all the talk is about the Tar Heels and Blue Devils (in fact, I expect Cameron Indoor Stadium to be packed Saturday night for the... blue-white scrimmage).

But outside of this college hoops utopia, the big boys are gearing up for another 82-game slate followed by a ridiculously (yet always-fun-to-watch) playoff stretch run.

With that said, it's time for my prognostications. For every team. And for those playoffs, which still seem light years away.

Please note that the numbers in parentheses after each team indicate where they'll finish in the conference.

EASTERN CONFERENCE

Central Division
1. Detroit Pistons 53-29 (1st): With the infusion of talent in Boston, no one wants to talk anymore about the old, boring, stagnant Pistons. Fine. So be it. But they're still the best team in the East when motivated. And I have a feeling they'll come out with a little fire after that embarrassing collapse against LeBron and Co. Expect Jason Maxiell to have a breakout year and Amir Johnson to also make strides up front.

2. Chicago Bulls 48-34 (3rd): Probably the youngest, most hungry team in the East, but — still — they lack an interior scoring threat. Tyrus Thomas is athletic and exciting at times, but he's no post-up threat. Expect another big year from Luol Deng, but this team will still rely to0 heavily on perimeter shooting.

3. Cleveland Cavaliers 46-36 (5th): What a terrible off-season. Yes, last year's postseason run was special, but the group that advanced to the Finals isn't going to pull a repeat performance — especially in a tougher conference. Daniel Gibson's great, but not a true point guard. Larry Hughes is a bust. Zydrunas Ilguauskas is old. LeBron James better save a lot of energy for the playoffs.

4. Milwaukee Bucks 39-43 (9th): This team is going to be better than a lot of people expect if the nucleus can stay healthy. Michael Redd's as good a scorer as the NBA has, and Mo Williams is a versatile point guard who can score and distribute the ball. The questions are up front, where Andrew Bogut and Charlie Villanueva need breakout years.

5. Indiana Pacers 31-51 (12th): How far has this once-proud franchise fallen? Trade rumors continue to surround Jermaine O'Neal. Jamaal Tinsley can't stay out of trouble. Mike Dunleavy and Danny Granger are almost carbon copies of each other — slashers who can score 10-plus points per game, but not guys you can count on in the clutch.

Atlantic Division
1. Boston Celtics 49-33 (2nd): Mark me down as skeptical about how this new arrangement is going to work. The certainties: Kevin Garnett will play his tail off. Paul Pierce and Ray Allen will splash many 3-pointers. The uncertainties: Will all three players older than 30 stay healthy the entire season and into mid-April? Will Rajon Rondo be able to consistently make 3s when he's left wide-open? Will Rondo be able to play 40-plus minutes a game with no backup point guard in site? Will Kendrick Perkins be able to play loose alongside the three All-Stars? Who will replace KG when he has to sit? Plenty of questions, but the ride should be memorable.

2. Toronto Raptors 47-35 (4th): Nobody has said a thing about this team since it finished third in the East a year ago before bowing to the Nets in the first round. I, for one, like a lot of things about the Raptors. Like the Bulls, the Raptors are comprised of a bunch of young players eager to further explore the postseason. And, unlike the Bulls, they have a great post presence in Chris Bosh and another developing big man in Andrea Bargnani.

3. New Jersey Nets 44-38 (7th): Three big questions here: Will Jason Kidd, with his bad back, be able to stay on the court and lead this team? Will Vince Carter, with his new contract, play motivated the entire season? Will Nenad Kristic return to the player he was before an ACL injury sidelined him for most of last season? Plenty of potential, plenty of questions.

4. New York Knicks 41-41 (9th): Oh, the pain that will be felt in the Big Apple when the Knicks just miss the playoffs by a hair. We all know the talent is there, especially with the acquisition of Zach Randolph, but how will the pieces fit together? How will Randolph and Eddie Curry coexist down low? So far, not great. This team will have many winning streaks, but also many losing streaks. It lacks that veteran presence to keep everybody cool regardless of which way the momentum is flowing.

5. Philadelphia 76ers 26-56 (15th): I like the Andre Miller-Andre Iguodala combination, and when he's healthy, Samuel Dalembert is a very serviceable center. However, he's not a big scorer, which can also be said about new power forward Reggie Evans. And Willie Green is one of the worst shooting guards in the league. Plenty of rebuilding left to do in Philly.

Southeast Division
1. Washington Wizards 45-37 (6th): The Big Three — Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison — must stay healthy for this team to have a chance of doing big things. And even with them, it's going to be hard to post one of the East's best records with close to nothing at center. Brendan Haywood will have to play monster minutes with his nemesis Etan Thomas shelved and no decent backup in sight.

2. Miami Heat 43-39 (8th): As encouraging as Shaquille O'Neal's off-season training regimen was, the fortunes of the Heat revolve around Dwyane Wade, who will miss the beginning of the season still recovering from shoulder and knee surgeries. And then the period will begin where we'll find out if D-Wade can regain his 2006 championship form. If he can, and O'Neal stays healthy, this team is a championship contender. If he can't, the Heat will scramble to make the playoffs.

3. Orlando Magic 40-42 (10th): Same record, no playoffs. That's the difference this time around in a tougher Eastern Conference. One might think the Magic would be vastly improved after the acquisition of Rashard Lewis to take some of the scoring load off Dwight Howard's broad shoulders, but I'm not convinced. Lewis, to me, is a one-dimensional player — just a scorer. Also, I'm not sold on undersized J.J. Redick at shooting guard. Opposing guards will be able to post him and Jameer Nelson up all day. And Grant Hill will be missed.

4. Atlanta Hawks 32-50 (13th): The pieces are starting to come together. I like shooting guard Joe Johnson. Marvin Williams will have a breakout year. Josh Smith has developed into a solid all-around player. And Zaza Pachulia is an underrated, although weak (just 6.9 rpg), center. Add Al Horford and Acie Law to the mix, and the nucleus is there. But where's the chemistry? Speedy Claxton is one of the league's worst starting PGs, and the rookies still have to prove themselves.

5. Charlotte Bobcats 30-52 (14th): The season hasn't even begun, and youngsters Sean May and Adam Morrison are already decked for the season. Ouch! But this team retains plenty of scoring potential. It will be interesting to see how Jason Richardson and Gerald Wallace split up the shots, and don't forget about Emeka Okafor. PG Raymond Felton could boost himself into the upper echelon of point guards with a stellar season. But the other young guys will be sitting. That hurts.

WESTERN CONFERENCE

Southwest Division
1. San Antonio Spurs 58-24 (1st): The Spurs didn't change anything because they didn't need to. The great thing about this group is that you never worry about complacency setting in. If not for a Dirk Nowitzki three-point play in 2006, we could easily be talking about the three-time defending champs right now. And there's plenty to play for, as in the Spurs' first back-to-back titles. Expect nothing less.

2. Dallas Mavericks 57-25 (2nd): The regular season is an afterthought for this talented squad. We know they'll cruise to one of the West's best records. The question is how they'll fair in the playoffs. Will Nowitzki be able to score from the post? He'll be helped by a breakout season from point guard Devin Harris, who will be all over the court. The center position — like usual — is Dallas' weakness.

3. Houston Rockets 51-31 (4th): The acquisitions of point guard Mike James and shooting guard Steve Francis give the Rockets the needed depth in the backcourt along with sharp-shooter Luther Head. But the fact remains that Yao Ming and Tracy McGrady need to remain healthy and motivated to get this team out of the first round of the playoffs. One of them needs to step up and grab control of this bunch, because it has too much talent to be a first-round exit once again.

4. New Orleans Hornets 44-38 (8th): The time has finally come. The Hornets will stay healthy and — boosted by the pickup of veteran guard Morris Peterson — sneak into the playoffs. Tyson Chandler brought a great defensive presence to the lineup last year, but no one noticed his contribution because of injuries to Chris Paul, David West and Peja Stojakovic. If those three can stay healthy, this team won't have a problem getting into the playoffs and may just scare the Spurs in the first round.

5. Memphis Grizzlies 34-48 (13th): The future of this team revolves around the point guard position. How will Mike Conley Jr. develop? Will he become a quality PG quickly, or will it take time? Pau Gasol, I'm sure, is hoping Conley will learn the ropes fast, because Gasol — encouraged by the pickup of Juan Carlos Navarro — wants to win now. Rudy Gay, Stromile Swift and Hakim Warrick are all still raw players. Darko Millicic gets a new home to prove himself.

Northwest Division
1. Utah Jazz 50-32 (5th): Forget that Andrei Kirilenko is unhappy in Salt Lake City. Just the return of precocious point guard Deron Williams and beastly power forward Carlos Boozer gives this team a chance to do big things in the powerful West. The player who needs to develop more is Mehmet Okur. He needs to toughen up around the basket and rebound better. Also, losing Derek Fisher and his clutch shooting will hurt. But in the end, the second coming of Stockton and Malone will win the division for the Jazz.

2. Denver Nuggets 48-34 (6th): Who really knows what to make of this team? Kenyon Martin is back after missing most of last season, and we'll just have to see how he progresses. Hopefully for the team's sake, he'll be content to play good defense, rebound and score second-chance points. I don't like Allen Iverson as a point guard. That's why losing Steve Blake will hurt more than people anticipate. Chucky Atkins shoots too much to get along with Iverson and Carmelo Anthony.

3. Seattle Supersonics 37-45 (11th): Too many questions to ask. Of course the main one is how Kevin Durant will perform as the vocal point of the team's offense. Then there's the question of how much longer this team will remain in Seattle, and how that will affect the players. And then there's the issue of who, besides Durant, will score. I like the pickup of Wally Szczerbiak in the Ray Allen trade to the Celtics because he can score. He'll give them a lift. Point guard Luke Ridnour needs to prove that he can consistently knock down the mid-range jumper. Seattle's still soft inside.

4. Minnesota Timberwolves 33-49 (14th): Forgive me for being an optimist, but I don't think it will be long before this team is back in the postseason. I like Minnesota's young nucleus of Randy Foye, Corey Brewer, Ryan Gomes, Al Jefferson and Gerald Green. Theo Ratliff may be old, but you can count on him to play hard and play good defense (1.5 bpg last season). Antoine Walker is the big question. Will he dedicate himself to helping this team improve, or will he cry his way through the season? Either way, this team is headed in the right direction.

5. Portland Trailblazers 30-52 (15th): Could it be? Could the Trail Blazers get the No. 1 pick for the second straight year? Greg Oden and O.J. Mayo together? It's possible. Some might call this a wasted year with Oden out, but it's a year for PG Jarrett Jack, SG Brandon Roy and PF LaMarcus Aldridge to really improve so that when Oden joins them in a year, they can make up for his rookie hiccups. Channing Frye should also make great strides.

Pacific Division
1. Phoenix Suns 56-26 (3rd): The only reason the Suns finish behind the Mavericks and Spurs is the dissent of power forward Shawn Marion who, for some ludicrous reason, wants to leave the team led by Steve Nash (makes no sense to me). The player who needs to reestablish himself is Boris Diaw, who had a huge down year last season after winning the Most Improved Player award in 2006. Also, with every passing season there's the possibility that Nash will sustain a major injury, and Phoenix fans don't want to even consider LWN (Life Without Nash).

2. Golden State Warriors 45-37 (7th): Man, is this team fun to watch, or what? It also can be the most frustrating team in the league. I'm sure the Warriors will provide their fans with both of their sides at different times throughout the season. The key is team chemistry, which begins with Baron Davis. When the point guard is distributing the ball to open shooters and running the break unselfishly, everyone feeds off him. When he's not? Well, things get ugly. I don't think losing Richardson will hurt that much because there are plenty of shooters and high-flyers to fill his void. Rookie big man Brandan Wright will fit nicely into the run-and-gun system.

3. Los Angeles Lakers 41-41 (9th): Something tells me this team won't finish 41-41. It will either be much better or much worse, with the indicating factor being Kobe Bryant's presence or lack thereof. If he stays and is happy, that probably means the Lakers will pull the string on a deal to bring Jermaine O'Neal or someone else to L.A. If Bryant remains unhappy and is eventually dealt, then the Lakers become a cellar dweller. Should make for great theater in L.A.

4. Los Angeles Clippers 37-45 (10th): No team will miss a single player more than the Clippers will mourn Elton Brand for at least half the season. Sans Brand, this will become a perimeter-oriented squad full of slashers such as Corey Maggette, Cuttino Mobley and rookie Al Thornton. They should be fun to watch, but they'll also commit loads of turnovers and not be as reliable as Brand is in late-game situations.

5. Sacramento Kings 35-47 (12th): Reggie Theus needs to turn over this dilapidated roster. Ditch either Mike Bibby or Ron Artest, because they don't seem to work well together. Build around underrated shooting guard Kevin Martin. And go from there. Brad Miller is nearing the end. Ditto Kenny Thomas and Shareef Abdur-Rahim. This team appears old and rather boring — a complete reversal of the outfit that lit up Arco Arena six years ago.

PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

EASTERN CONFERENCE
First Round
No. 1 Detroit def. No. 8 Miami 4-2.
No. 2 Boston def. No. 7 New Jersey 4-2.
No. 3 Chicago def. No. 6 Cleveland 4-3.
No. 5 Toronto def. No. 4 Washington 4-3.

Second round
No. 1 Detroit def. No. 5 Toronto 4-2.
No. 3 Chicago def. No. 2 Boston 4-3.

Eastern Conference Finals
No. 1 Detroit def. No. 3 Chicago 4-3: Pistons don't overlook opposing team in the conference finals this time. Chauncey Billups has a huge series, as does Rasheed Wallace, who deftly posts up Chicago's inexperienced big man while a hurting Ben Wallace sits on the bench.

WESTERN CONFERENCE
First Round
No. 1 San Antonio def. No. 8 New Orleans 4-1.
No. 2 Dallas def. No. 7 Golden State 4-3.
No. 3 Phoenix def. No. 6 Denver 4-3.
No. 5 Houston def. No. 4 Utah 4-3.

Second Round
No. 1 San Antonio def. No. 5 Houston 4-1.
No. 2 Dallas def. No. 3 Phoenix 4-3.

Western Conference Finals
No. 1 San Antonio def. No. 2 Dallas 4-2: No huge surprise here. The Spurs are the better team all-around. Tony Parker outplays Harris. Tim Duncan outplays Nowitzki. And the role players do their jobs. The Spurs get payback for that tough Game 7 loss in 2006.

NBA Finals
San Antonio def. Detroit 4-2: Another competitive series, but the Spurs put any leftover doubters to rest that they are the team of this decade, winning their fifth title in the past nine years. This time Manu Ginobili is the MVP, as he frustrates the Pistons with his ability to get to the basket and knock down the open 3-pointers. Robert Horry finally calls it a career with his eighth — eighth! — NBA championship ring. Eva Longoria plasters her husbands with thousands of smooches.

Enjoy the season everyone. I think the refs are clean. I think the Celtics are good. And I know Rasheed Wallace will pick up a technical.

Should be a ball.

World Series preview: Don't count out the Rockies

ON BASEBALL

Here's a riddle for you:

The World Series is about to commence inside Fenway Park.

One team has won 21 of its last 22 games, including all seven of its playoff games. Not bad, eh?

The other team had to win three consecutive games and rely on some poor decisions by its opponent to advance.

One team is being picked by the majority of America outside of the Rocky Mountains to win.

That team is not the team with the 21-for-22 streak.

Question: Why is everyone picking against the hot guys? (I thought women, especially, dig hot guys).

Answer: I'm not quite sure, but here are some guesses...

America loves the Red Sox to win their second World Series in four years after going 86 years without a championship.

People point to their ace, Josh Beckett, who is 3-0 this postseason and has been indomitable. Yes, Beckett is better than Colorado's No. 1, Jeff Francis. But let's not forget who Francis beat in Game 1 of the NLCS (Arizona's seemingly unbeatable No. 1, Brandon Webb).

People point to the Rockies' eight-day layoff and say it will affect them just like the Tigers' six-day vacation hurt them last year when they lost the Fall Classic to the Cardinals in an ugly five games.

First off, I'm sure Colorado manager Clint Hurdle has made sure his pitchers work on their fielding during the respite, so, yes, I'm positive that the Rockies' rotation won't be throwing the ball into Fenway's stands.

Secondly, I like the fact that the Rockies played a couple of simulated scrimmages to prepare. No, I'm not going to pretend a no-pressure scrimmage in front of empty seats is tantamount to a World Series game in the country's most distinguished ballpark in front of blood-thirsty Red Sox Nation and millions of others watching. But the Rockies won't be rusty fundamentally. They'll play good defense. They'll probably pitch OK. And that will give them a chance.

Thirdly, a big difference between last year's Tigers and this season's Rockies is that Detroit was a huge favorite heading into the series. The Rockies, as you might surmise, are not. There is no added pressure. No "this season will be a disappointment" butterflies fluttering around the clubhouse.

If Colorado loses, so what? Close to no one expects them to win. This season will remain memorable even if they lose. The Rockies have nothing to lose. All they need to do is play hard and enjoy the moments. Can't say the same about the Red Sox, whom everybody is inking in as 2007 World Series Champions.

Fourthly, the winning streak should be getting much more press. Forget the layoff. This team believes it's going to win every game. Even when it was down in the Game 4 clincher against Arizona, there was a resounding belief that Colorado would pull it out. That can't be underestimated. It will help the Rockies each time they're down this series.

You can point to the matchups and numbers all you want. They are what they are, but they won't determine what transpires in the next week or so. If the numbers dictated the Series' direction, Detroit would be the defending champion right now. Simple as that.

But I know you want a few Xs and Os, so here they are:

I'm not joking when I say, "Colorado's lineup 1-9 is just as potent as Boston's, especially with Big Papi struggling."

Yes, Beckett has an advantage over Francis, but I'm serious when I say, "The teams' Nos. 2-4 starters are even."

I'm not delirious when I say, "Manny Corpas is just as good as Jonathan Papelbon as a closer."

I believe it when I say, "With Brian Fuentes leading the way, I like Colorado's middle relief and setup situation over Boston's, especially if Boston's Eric Gagne enters a game in a tight situation."

It's the truth when I say, "Clint Hurdle does just as good a job managing his ball club as Boston's Terry Francona does with his."

Finally, call me insane, but I fully believe that Colorado can win this series. Will it run its streak to 25-of-26? Highly doubtful. This Red Sox team doesn't play four bad games in a row (just three). But Colorado has the players, the manager, the mojo, the momentum and the crazy fans to win its first World Series.

Call me crazy, but I believe it.

Colorado in six.

Feeling for No. 7

ON BASEBALL

There's a list of things inside my mind I promise myself I will never, ever do in this lifetime...

Live in Gary, Ind. Eat a Twinkie. Watch "Laguna Beach."

On Sunday night, however, I broke one promise. I felt sorry for a professional athlete. I felt remorse for Cleveland outfielder Kenny Lofton.

When his Indians completed their collapse from a 3-1 lead in the ALCS over Boston, losing 11-2 Sunday, another shot at winning his first World Series had passed Lofton by.

I have two baseball jerseys hanging in my closet (both of which were given to me by my cousin, Pete, a former college player). There's my Cal Ripken jersey, and my Kenny Lofton jersey from when he was with the Indians (the first time).

In this age of steroid use and sluggers admiring their every home run swing, Lofton is a reminder of the past. He's skinnier than a lamp post, he still steals bases at the ripe age of 40, he always plays hard and he doesn't make excuses.

During the precocious Indians' run to within a game of the World Series, Lofton was the veteran presence in the clubhouse, the guy the youngsters who make up the team could turn to for advice on how to handle the pressure of October.

'Cuz, man, has Lofton been here before.

Sunday's loss completed Lofton's 17th season in the majors. He's played on a whopping 11 teams (and probably owned 11 different houses and paid nine states' taxes — he's played for two Pennsylvania and California teams). And he's come agonizingly close to winning a World Series ring, only to fall just short every time — often in heartbreaking fashion.

Let me start from the beginning...

In 1995 Lofton was a part of a Cleveland team that went an unbelievable 100-44 and advanced to the World Series only to lose three one-run games in a six-game WS loss to Atlanta.

In 1996 Cleveland fell to Baltimore in the first round of the playoffs, losing 4-3 in 12 innings in Game 4 after the Orioles tied the game with a run in the ninth inning.

In 1997 Lofton was with Atlanta when the Braves lost to the surprising Marlins in five games, again being a part of a one-run loss in the clincher, a 2-1 Florida win.

In 1998 Lofton was back with the Indians. And — again — his team lost in five games in the divisional round, as the Indians lost the final two games at home to the Yankees.

The story was even worse in 1999, when the Indians went up 2-0 on the Red Sox only to drop three straight, including Game 5 at home, 12-8. Cleveland's pitching staff gave up 44 runs in the three losses — including 23 in Game 4. At this point, I wouldn't have blamed Lofton for throwing his hands in the air and yelling, "I give up!!!!"

But Lofton's Indians were back in the divisional round in 2001 and found themselves with a 2-1 lead... only to lose the final two games. By then, Lofton probably could have made a case that the league was fixing the playoff series in which he played.

As hard as this is to believe, Lofton's postseason fortunes got even worse when he left Cleveland after the 2001 season. In 2002, after a brief tenure with the White Sox, he ended up on the Giants, who advanced to the World Series. San Francisco led the series 3-2 and was up 5-0 in the seventh inning of Game 6, just nine outs away from jubilation. But Anaheim scored three times in the seventh and the eighth innings to win 6-5 and then won Game 7 4-1.

The "Heartbreak Kid" then migrated to the field where heartbreak comes with your ticket — Wrigley Field. After a brief stint with the Pirates, Lofton found himself manning center field in front of the ivy wall as Steve Bartman interfered with the foul ball and shortstop Alex Gonzalez muffed the routine grounder in 2003. The Cubs blew Game 6 of the NLCS (in which they had a three-run, eighth-inning lead) and lost Game 7, also at home, to the Marlins.

Unfortunately for Lofton, that heartbreak wasn't even as bad as what he'd feel in 2004 as a member of the Yankees. I'm sure you've heard the story before. Lofton's Yanks were up 3-0 on the Red Sox. No team had ever rebounded from a 3-0 deficit in a series. The Yankees were three outs away from the Fall Classic in Game 4 with Mariano Rivera on the mound. But then everything fell apart. Maybe, however, the collapse wasn't a big surprise to Lofton.

Finally in 2005 Lofton's team — the Phillies — fell just short of the playoffs, saving Lofton the heartbreak for at least one October. And when Lofton's Dodgers were swept in the divisional round by the Mets last season, it couldn't have been that painful for Lofton.

But then came 2007. Lofton played more than half the season with the Rangers, a team that had no shot of going to the playoffs. It appeared it'd just be another 162-game baseball season for No. 7, a season that allowed his free time in October to go fishing or simply relax.

But, alas, Lofton was traded back to the Indians, whose fans adore Lofton, and the fight for the playoffs was on. Cleveland separated itself from Detroit and cruised into October. Then it surprised many pundits by rolling past the Yankees in four games. And it won three straight games over the Red Sox to take a commanding 3-1 series lead with Game 5 at Jacobs Field.

The stage was set for Lofton to return to the World Series with his favorite team, for Lofton to be the veteran leader of the first World Series champion in Cleveland since 1948 — the longest drought outside of, well, you know.

What a story it would have been. Lofton, a legend in Cleveland, could have retired peacefully, with his ring hugging one of his fingers — there for life.

Instead, Lofton was in the middle of another collapse, another heartbreak. On Sunday he was called out at second on a base hit off the Green Monster in the fifth inning (although replays clearly showed he was safe). That out was followed by two hits, which would have at least tied the game 3-3.

Then in the seventh inning he was held up at third base on a single down the left-field line that he should have scored on to knot the score. But the third-base coach clearly put his hands up, signally Lofton to stop (how symbolic was that of his career?), and the next batter hit into a double play to end Cleveland's threat.

Boston scored twice in the bottom half of the frame and six more times in the eighth to ice the Game 7 victory.

It's impossible to identify another pro athlete who has suffered through as many postseason disappointments — almost all of them heart-wrenching — as Lofton.

Eleven appearances in the playoffs. Two World Series. No rings.

After the game, a politically correct Lofton said, "At least I had the opportunity."

But the words must have felt hollow. Or they might have been recycled from 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004 and '06.

After all, the position Lofton sat in late Sunday night was all too familiar. Because of that, I feel sorry for No. 7.

Week 7 NFL picks

ON FOOTBALL

I've only got about a minute here before heading off to ACC Media Day, so here are my quick picks. Maybe this will be the catharsis for my struggles (7-6 last week, 44-30 overall). Who really knows? Here goes...

Baltimore (4-2) 16, at Buffalo (1-4) 14.

At Detroit (3-2) 24, Tampa Bay (4-2) 19.

New England (6-0) 34, at Miami (0-6) 7.

At New Orleans (1-4) 28, Atlanta (1-5) 9.

At NY Giants (4-2) 27, San Francisco (2-3) 14.

At Washington (3-2) 30, Arizona (3-3) 13.

At Houston (3-3) 21, Tennessee (3-2) 16.

At Cincinnati (1-4) 21, NY Jets (1-5) 20.

At Oakland (2-3) 20, Kansas City (3-3) 14.

At Dallas (5-1) 34, Minnesota (2-3) 28.

Chicago (2-4) 17, at Philly (2-3) 16.

At Seattle (3-3) 27, St. Louis (0-6) 17.

Pittsburgh (4-1) 23, at Denver (2-3) 17.

At Jacksonville (4-1) 21, Indianapolis (5-0) 20.

I'm out. Enjoy the Monday Night game. The Colts go down... The Colts go down...

In sports, planning ahead can never hurt

ON BASEBALL

Joe Torre didn't exactly "shock" the sports world or turn it on its axis this week when he declined the Yankees' offer to manage the Bronx Bombers for another year with a smaller salary (not including incentives).

I'm sure the Yanks' brass was prepared for Torre's rebuke — even the hour-plus press conference, not that it cared about that.

Kudos to George Steinbrenner & Sons for knowing that Torre might walk away and for beginning the "find-the-right-guy" process as soon as Torre said "No." The Yankees will likely be fine. Lots of money usually = fine. They'll pay to bring back Mariano Rivera and Jorge Posada. They'll probably pay for A-Rod (even if that's not what they're saying).

And they've got a couple of good managerial candidates in Don Mattingly and Joe Girardi despite the unsuspected migration of the other possible candidate, Trey Hillman, to Kansas City to manage the Royals (what was he thinking?).

But, more often than not, a situation like this can devastate a team. Too frequently good managers/coaches are taken for granted and dumped after a few bad seasons/losses without their team having a good replacement in mind.

It's an epidemic in the sports world that needs to be dealt with. Too many good teams becoming bad. Too many good managers and coaches finding themselves out of work while their inferiors drive their teams into the ground.

This has got to stop!! Now!!

"Detroit Free Press" columnist Michael Rosenberg knows what I'm talking about. Just earlier this week he wrote how Nebraska — feeling the pressure from its rather, uh, red fan base — dumped Frank Solich a couple years back only to be left with the rotten leftovers, aka Bill Callahan, who has not only ditched the traditional running attack for the dreaded spread (this is Nebraska, not Purdue!), but drove the program so far down that he got athletic director Steve Pederson fired so the university could bring back legendary coach Tom Osborne as an interim AD/savior of the state of Nebraska.

Yeah, maybe the Cornhuskers should have looked around at potential candidates before dumping Solich.

We haven't seen the results yet, but the Arkansas men's basketball team perfectly exemplifies this firing/hiring disaster. After Stan Heath led the Razorbacks to the NCAA tournament for the second consecutive season last March, apparently the university was unhappy with him, immediately giving him the pink slip.

Rumors swirled about up-and-coming Texas A&M coach Billy Gillispie taking over in Fayetteville, but instead Gillispie went to a place called Kentucky.

The Razorbacks eyed other big names, such as Kansas' Bill Self, but couldn't bait them. Then they hired Creighton coach, Dana Altman, but he, um, pulled a quick "Billy Donovan," backing out after one day on the job (did he get paid for that day?).

Finally, after two weeks of scrambling, Arkansas hired South Alabama coach John Pelphrey, who is there to stay — I think. And everyone's saying the right things. But is the program in better hands with Pelphrey than it was with Heath? That's not an easy question to answer. Arkansas may come to regret its decision.

Of course, the firing/hiring situation is even worse in pro sports than in the college ranks. Where else is a coach fired after a 14-2 NFL season like San Diego's Marty Schottenheimer, who was replaced with Norv "he's never performed well as a head coach" Turner after last season.

While things are a bit sunnier in San Diego now after two consecutive wins put the Chargers at 3-3 and tied for the AFC West lead, it can't be overlooked that Turner's staff has suffered as many losses as Schottenheimer's did — including the playoffs — all last year. With the same players. We'll have to wait to see how this one turns out.

That completes the history lesson portion of this column. Now it's time for the advice section, addressed to general managers/athletic directors:

1. Never fire a coach unless you have at least two good candidates in mind and you're 90 percent sure one of them will take the job. The exception, of course, is if the coach you're firing has won, like, 30 percent of his games. Then you can't do much worse.

2. Same as No. 1.

3. Don't let an angry fan base or media influence you into dumping a coach when you have no clue who will jump into the lava to save your team.

4. In college sports, give a coach four years — and three recruiting classes — to prove himself. In the pros, give him at least two years.

All general managers and athletic directors should follow the example of Joe Dumars, the Detroit Pistons president of basketball operations. In 2003 Dumars dumped coach Rick Carlisle despite back-to-back division titles and 50-win seasons and Detroit's first birth in the conference finals since 1991.

Sounds insane, right? Well, it wasn't simply because Dumars already knew he had Larry Brown in the bag to become Detroit's next coach. He was 99 percent sure Brown — one of the greatest basketball coaches of all time despite his vagabond tendencies — would step in and take the Pistons one step further than Carlisle.

Sure enough, "L.B." led the Pistons to the 2004 championship. Just like that.

After losing in the NBA Finals in 2005, however, Dumars — feeling pressure from owner Bill Davidson — let Brown, who had been talking to Cleveland about their GM position during Detroit's postseason run, go on his way, replacing him with Flip Saunders.

Saunders has received plenty of heat for failing to get the Pistons back to the Finals in his first two years. Fans have called for his head, for a new coach. But Dumars has stood pat this time. And with good reason.

There is no better available coach out there. No one who could do a better job than Saunders has. Joe-D knows how to run his team.

Other GMs should watch how his organization flourishes and take notes.

There's always an air of excitement when a new coach takes over a team. Yes, there was even a hint of verve in Kansas City when Hillman was introduced. The new man in town talks about taking the team in a "new direction."

But in many cases, that new direction is no better than where the previous coach was headed. Prudence is the key word here.

It should be used anytime an AD/GM is chomping at the bit to move in that new direction.

They should know what that direction is before making the turn.