NCAA men's basketball preview: predicting the 65

ON COLLEGE BASKETBALL

I've spent the past several days pondering how I want to handle my college hoops preview.

Should I predict all of the major conferences? Should I predict the All-Americans? What about the top freshmen? Coaches most likely to be fired?

But then it came to me: What, ultimately, is Division I college basketball about? What does it boil down to? When do the casual fans ditch their dinner dates to sit in front of the TV?

You guessed it — on Selection Sunday. No matter what happens during November, December, January, February and early March, if a team is selected to participate in the NCAA Tournament, all is good. It (and its fans) has a new life. Anything can happen. It controls its destiny.

Which is why, without further ado, I am embarking on the unenviable task of predicting each of the 65 teams which will play in the Big Dance. Let's get it started.

31 AUTOMATIC BIDS

Big East Conference
— Georgetown: Big man Roy Hibbert will have an All-American year, making his decision to return well worth it.

Atlantic 10 Conference
— Xavier: The Musketeers, led by diminutive guard Drew Lavender, could be even better than last year, when they were a last-second 3-pointer away from beating Ohio State and advancing to the Sweet 16.

Metro Atlantic
— Loyola (Md.): The MAAC's leading returning scorer, Gerald Brown, averaged 22 points last season.

Ivy League
— Cornell: Pennsylvania and Princeton have won or shared the title every season since 1962. Expect a big shift in power this season.

America East
— Albany: The Great Danes will repeat despite the loss of conference player of the year Jamar Wilson. Vermont, as always, will be their top challenger.

Patriot League
— Holy Cross: This is becoming a two-team league, with Holy Cross and Bucknell meeting in the conference tournament title game the past three seasons. Expect it to happen again.

Northeast Conference
— Robert Morris: No team has made back-to-back appearances in the NCAA Tournament from this conference. Expect the same this season as the Colonials unseat Central Connecticut State.

Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)
— North Carolina: Duke might challenge the Tar Heels, but there is simply too much talent and depth, and Tyler Hansbrough is the most determined player in the country.

MEAC
— Hampton: Rashad West, who led the league in scoring with 17.8 points per game, will help the Pirates back to the Big Dance.

CAA
— Virginia Commonwealth: Eric Maynor, who hit the game-winning shot against Duke in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, is back for another run at it.

Big South
— High Point: Led by Arizona "AZ" Reid, who led the league in scoring with 21 ppg, the Panthers are ready to take over the top spot in the conference from Winthrop, which lost coach Gregg Marshall.

Southern Conference
— Davidson: No doubt about this. Led by Stephon Curry, the son of former NBA sweet shooter Dell Curry, the Wildcats should spend some time in the Top 25.

Southeastern (SEC)
— Tennessee: With Florida down and Kentucky rebuilding under Billy Gillispie, this is the Volunteers' season. Scoring point guard and All-America candidate Chris Lofton will lead the charge.

Ohio Valley Conference
— Austin Peay: Buoyed by the return of all their key players, the Governors will try to get the OVC its first Big Dance win since 1989.

Sun Belt
— Western Kentucky: The league should be strong thanks to the return of 80 percent of its top players, but the Hilltoppers will be the best of the 13 teams.

Atlantic Sun
— Belmont: Expect the Bruins to make their second straight NCAA Tournament appearance.

Big Ten
— Indiana: A week ago, I would have picked Michigan State, but after watching freshman Eric Gordon play in an exhibition game, I'm convinced he'll be special. And alongside D.J. White, he'll make the Hoosiers the league's best team.

Horizon League
— Butler: Sure, the Bulldogs lost their coach Todd Lickliter (to Iowa), but Brad Stevens inherits four of the Sweet 16 team's top five scorers.

Summit League
— Oakland: The league, formerly known as the Mid-Continent Conference, has a new name, and it will feature a different team in the NCAA Tournament, as the Golden Grizzlies take Oral Roberts' spot.

Mid-American (MAC)
— Ohio: This might be the toughest league to predict, but I'm going with the loaded Bobcats, who will be led by forward Leon Williams, who averaged 14.4 points and 8.8 rebounds last season.

Conference USA
— Memphis: The biggest no-brainer. The Tigers could be the No. 1 team in the country, and if their first two games are any indication, freshman guard Derrick Rose is as good as advertised.

Big 12
— Kansas: Frank Martin's young Wildcats will give the Jayhawks a scare, but ultimately experience will prove vital as Brandon Rush and a trio of steady guards lead Kansas.

Missouri Valley
— Southern Illinois: You know the Salukis will always play strong defense, and forward Randal Falker is a beast down low.

Southland Conference
— Texas-Arlington: With every key player back, expect the Mavericks, who were just 13-17 last season, to make a surprise Big Dance showing.

SWAC
— Grambling: The Tigers, who haven't won a share of the league title since 1989, return seven of their top eight scorers.

Big Sky
— Montana: Jordan Hasquet, who is the lone all-conference returning player, will take the Grizzlies to the tournament.

WAC
— New Mexico State: No Reggie Theus, no problem for the Aggies, who return loads of talent.

Mountain West
— BYU: All-conference Trent Plaisted will lead the Cougars in a down year for the conference, which lost several of its marquee players.

Pac 10
— UCLA: This conference is absolutely loaded, but there's no doubt who the top team should be. Keep an eye on freshman giant Kevin Love. He could be special.

Big West
— UC-Santa Barbara: Alex Harris, who averaged 21.1 points and 8.3 rebounds per game last season, will lead the Gauchos, who will take advantage of the recruiting violations that have negatively transformed the Long Beach State program.

West Coast
— Gonzaga: Another easy pick. The 'Zags were able to make the tournament without suspended star Josh Heytvelt a year ago. Now a remorseful Heytvelt is back, along with several other key parts of that team.

34 AT-LARGE BIDS (BY CONFERENCE): WITH BETTER SEEDS LISTED HIGHER.

ACC (5)
— Duke
— N.C. State
— Clemson
— Virginia
— Georgia Tech

Atlantic 10 (1)
— St. Josephs

Big 10 (4)
— Michigan State
— Ohio State
— Wisconsin
— Minnesota

Big 12 (4)
— Kansas State
— Texas A&M
— Texas
— Oklahoma

Big East (6)
— Louisville
— Marquette
— Pittsburgh
— Syracuse
— Connecticut
— Providence

CAA (1)
— George Mason

Conference USA (1)
— UAB

Missouri Valley (1)
— Bradley

Moutain West (1)
— Utah

Pac 10 (5)
— Washington State
— USC
— Oregon
— Stanford
— Arizona

SEC (5)
— Florida
— Kentucky
— Arkansas
— Mississippi State
— Georgia

JUST OUT: Washington (Pac 10), Fresno State (WAC), Villanova (Big East), Alabama (SEC), Mississippi State (SEC), Illinois (Big 10), St. Mary's (West Coast), Maryland (ACC), Missouri (Big 12).

Whew! That's it, folks. Please respond with feedback on the selections/omissions you disagree with. I'm sure that come March I'll feel like an idiot.

Which is why, for now, I'll abstain from predicting the Final Four or the national champion. I'll make those picks once the field is set. Once I know for sure who's dancing and who's not.

As always, enjoy the madness.

NFL mid-season report

ON FOOTBALL

Now that Super Bowl XLI1/2 is in the books and every NFL team — except Baltimore and Pittsburgh, who play tonight — has played at least eight games, it's time to assess the first two months of this 2007 season. It's time to place teams in categories — some good, some bad — and determine which teams still have a chance at Super Bowl XLII.

It's time to break things down like Ron Jaworski, to analyze things like John Madden. Ain't no joking in this column. Just well-thought-out answers.

The Top Tier
These two teams are miles above the rest of the NFL. There's a 90 percent chance they'll meet again in the AFC Championship Game.

1. New England (9-0) — The Patriots showed Sunday why they're the best team in the league, and one of the greatest regular season teams of all time. Tom Brady is the coolest customer in the candy shop, Randy Moss is the scariest receiver in the league, and when the offense struggles once in a blue moon, the defense picks it up.

2. Indianapolis (7-1) — The Colts are not far behind their rivals. Consider the fact that despite the absence of their No. 1 receiver, Marvin Harrison, their left tackle, Tony Ugoh, and their two starting outside linebackers, the Colts led 20-10 with under 10 minutes remaining. They came that close. Their defense is better than ever, as was the case for three quarters Sunday, and Joseph Addai has morphed into one of the league's top five running backs.

Second Tier Playoff Locks
These teams, barring a mega collapse, will be playing the first weekend in January.

1. Dallas (7-1) — How comfortable does Tony Romo look? Seriously. With a new contract and a happy T.O. running crisp routes, Romo couldn't be more relaxed if he were seated in a La-Z-Boy with a margarita in hand. The Cowboys offense isn't that far behind the Colts' and Patriots', but their defense still needs to toughen up and not give up so many big plays.

2. Green Bay (7-1) — Who would have thought? The Packers? Seven wins, one loss? Without even a pinch of a running game? This, folks, is why Green Bay fans should never let Brett Favre retire. It isn't every day that a player with Favre's competitiveness and will to win comes along. Favre is completing 66.3 percent of his passes and, more importantly, making the plays when his team needs them (such as on the first play of overtime last Monday against Denver). The Packers defense also is much stronger than people give it credit for.

3. Pittsburgh (5-2 ... play Baltimore tonight) — I expect the Steelers to take care of division foe Baltimore at home tonight, but even if they don't, I'm not moving them from this spot. Their defense is back to being steely, and Willie Parker has proven that last season wasn't a fluke. Add in Ben Roethlisberger playing his best football and new coach Mike Tomlin finding new ways to motivate a recent Super Bowl winner, and this team will make the playoffs ... only to eventually fall to Indy or New England.

Don't Pencil Them In ... Yet
These teams are in good position to make the playoffs, but there's still plenty of work to do.

1. Tennessee (6-2) — Could this team win any uglier? Vince Young personifies this rag-tag bunch perfectly, because he hasn't played very well, but he makes the plays when necessary. And the Titans find themselves just a game back of the Colts. But let's not kid ourselves. When the teams meet in the final week in Indy, the Colts will have the division locked up. But the Titans should have a playoff birth by then as well.

2. N.Y. Giants (6-2) — Another big surprise, the Giants have won six in a row and can tie the Cowboys for the division lead with a home win on Sunday. Maybe the most appealing thing about this team's run is we haven't heard any reports of players or coaches badmouthing each other. Instead, there have been reports of coach Tom Coughlin lightening up. Yeah, I know, it sounds surreal. But with a balanced offensive attack and an always-improving defense, there is reason to smile.

3. Detroit (6-2) — Here's the feel-good story of the first half. The worst franchise in all of professional sports the past five years has turned it all around in half a season. Absolutely stunning. And I can't believe I'm saying this, but I actually think the Lions will make the playoffs. If Jon Kitna stays healthy. If Kevin Jones stays healthy. If the defense continues to play over its head (it scored two touchdowns Sunday against Denver!). Still can't believe it.

Bubble Teams ...
So far I've listed eight teams. And I believe all eight will make the playoffs. That leaves four open spots. The following bevy of teams will fight for those spots (two in each conference). I've ranked them in terms of their chances of making the playoffs.

1. Seattle (4-4) — I know this is sad. I really don't like these Seahawks very much. But consider the other teams in their division: Arizona (3-5, can't win on the road); San Francisco (2-6, six-game losing streak); St. Louis (0-8, no comment). It would take a major collapse for Seattle to not win the division. Mike Holmgren will save his job by getting back to the postseason.

2. San Diego (4-4) — Again, the Chargers should be thankful for the division they're in. Kansas City has overachieved to be 4-4. The Broncos (3-5) have been plagued by injuries and are lucky to have three wins. The Raiders (2-6) are the Raiders. There is simply too much talent and will (I think) on this team to miss out on the playoffs.

3. New Orleans (4-4) — The Saints are on a roll, having won four consecutive games after that shocking 0-4 start. And only one of their remaining opponents (5-4 Tampa Bay, which leads them by a half game in the NFC South) has a winning record. They should take over the division from the overachieving Bucs sooner rather than later.

4. Cleveland (5-3) — The surprise team of the AFC, the Browns have a favorable schedule to sneak in as a wild card. While their next two games — at Pittsburgh and at Baltimore — will test them, their final six games are against teams with losing records. With their balanced offensive attack, the Browns are in good position to make the playoffs.

5. Tampa Bay (5-4) — The fact that Jeff Garcia led the Eagles to the playoffs last year bodes well for these Bucs, who will likely need to win the division to get a playoff spot. With the exception of the game at New Orleans, the Bucs have an easy final seven games, with the only other winning team on their schedule the 5-3 Redskins.

6. Jacksonville (5-3) — The good news: Starting QB David Garrard is expected back in the lineup for Sunday's huge game at Tennessee. The bad news: The Jags' offense hasn't been the problem. Rather, the usually steady defense has allowed 29, 23 and 41 points the last three games. With San Diego, Indy and Pittsburgh left on the schedule, the defense better get its act together quickly.

7. Washington (5-3) — Consider how close this team is to being 2-6: two overtime victories (16-13 over Miami in Week 1 and 23-20 over the Jets on Sunday after trailing 17-3) and a 21-19 win over Arizona, which just missed a field goal at the end. But now, despite a difficult remaining schedule, they have a shot at the playoffs, and Clinton Portis' 196-yard effort Sunday had to be a huge relaxer for young QB Jason Campbell.

7. Baltimore (4-3 ... play at Pittsburgh tonight) — Obviously the Ravens' fortunes would improve dramatically with a win at Pittsburgh tonight, which would put them in a three-way tie for first with the Steelers and Browns, but I don't see that happening. And consider the remaining schedule. Home games against New England AND Indy AND Pittsburgh. This team will need to become twice as good in the second half if it wants to play in January.

8. Kansas City (4-4) — Finally, Larry Johnson is starting to earn his large contract. And veteran QB Damon Huard has been a pleasant surprise. Additionally, the Chiefs have the Chargers at home on Dec. 2, and a win in that game would give them the tiebreaker over San Diego. But I don't think they'll be able to keep overachieving, and a game at Indy in two weeks is a sure loss.

9. Arizona (3-5) — Five homes games — not to mention games against 0-8 St. Louis and 2-6 Atlanta, San Francisco and Cincinnati — give the Cardinals hope that they can catch the 4-4 Seahawks in the dismal NFC West. The fact that they beat Seattle in their first meeting means that an improbable win on the road in Seattle on Dec. 9 would give them the tiebreaker.

10. Buffalo (4-4) — With three consecutive wins, all of a sudden the Bills can't be counted out of the playoffs ... yet. J.P. Losman is back and healthy, and Lee Evans is the best receiver in the league no one talks about. But still the playoffs are a long shot. While two games against Miami will help, five road games — including three against winning teams — and home tilts with the Pats and Giants will dethrone these pesky Bills.

A Miracle Away
These teams can't be dismissed, but their fans are planning vacations for the first weekend in January.

1. Chicago (3-5) — I can't dismiss my preseason pick to play in the Super Bowl. If that defense can play up to its potential...

2. Minnesota (3-5) — Anytime you have the best new running back in the league, Adrian Peterson, who already broke the NFL record for rushing yards in a game (296), anything is possible — even with Brooks Bollinger at QB.

3. Carolina (4-4) — The good news is the Panthers are just a half game behind the 5-4 Bucs and they play Atlanta at home next weekend. The bad news is David Carr has proven he can't lead an NFL team, Steve Smith isn't unhappy (and neither is anyone else).

4. Denver (3-5) — Somehow, some way, the Broncos are just a game back in the morbid AFC West. But losses in five of their last six games and the fact that each of their wins has come on a last-second field goal by Jason Elam tells a different story. This team, which was embarrassed 44-7 by Detroit Sunday, could easily by 0-8.

5. Philly (3-5) — There are many players on this team who were on last year's squad, which won its final five games to sneak into the playoffs. But with games at New England, Dallas and New Orleans remaining, these Eagles need divine intervention.

6. Houston (4-5) — The Texans finally stopped the bleeding with a 24-17 win at Oakland Sunday, but the wound will likely reopen soon. Games at Cleveland, Tennessee and Indy will doom the Texans.

Stick A Fork In 'Em
These teams have no shot at making the playoffs and should start thinking about the '08 Draft (only five and a half months away).

1. Cincinnati (2-6) — As if things could get worse, Chad Johnson sustained a neck injury Sunday and had to be carted off the field. Even if Johnson returns, the Bengals have used up all their losses. Until they seriously address their defensive holes, they're not a team to take seriously.

2. Oakland (2-6) — The positive is they've been competitive, with their last three losses coming by a combined 13 points. But that means nothing in this league. All Raiders fans can look forward to is another top 10 pick in next year's NFL Draft.

3. San Francisco (2-6) — 49ers fans can't even remember the opening two wins after six demoralizng losses, four by 18 points or more. With Frank Gore And Alex Smith either hurt or not performing up to expectations, there really are no positives here.

4. Atlanta (2-6) — No surprise here after the Michael Vick saga derailed this franchise. Hey, at least the Falcons have a one-game winning streak.

5. N.Y. Jets (1-8) — After making the playoffs a year ago, I didn't imagine the Jets would be this bad. Inconsistency on both sides of the ball has plagued them. When they score a lot of points, they give up a lot of points. When their defense plays well, their offense enters hibernation. And the losses pile up.

The 0-fers
Two teams have yet to win a game. Can either go the entire season without a victory? Here's my take.

1. St. Louis (0-8) — The Rams will win a game — probably their home game against Atlanta on Dec. 2, or maybe even a road game at the 49ers in two weeks.

2. Miami (0-8) — While I give the Dolphins a better chance than the Rams of going 0-16, I tend to think they'll break up the streak as well. Home games against the Jets, Bengals and Bills (this next weekend coming off their bye week) give them ample opportunities to get in the win column.

The Bigger Question: Can New England go 16-0?
I'm not going to predict the playoffs until I see how matchups shake out, but I think the Patriots have a great chance to finish the regular season 16-0. The tough games remaining are at Baltimore, home against Pittsburgh and at the N.Y. Giants to close out the season.

One big factor is that if the Colts keep winning, the Pats will need to continue winning to secure home field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. But even if the Colts lose, I don't see New England letting up on the gas pedal. Bill Belichick is taking out his anger about the "Spygate" incident on the NFL by running up the score on every opponent the Patriots overwhelm. Expect him to play his top guns just enough the final week of the season — even if there's nothing to play for — in order to beat the Giants.

Yes, the Patriots will finish 16-0.

Week 9 NFL picks

ON FOOTBALL

It is almost time. After watching so much analysis on ESPN, I'm ready to punch Ed Werder in the noggin, Super Bowl XLI1/2 is finally upon us. In a matter of hours the 8-0 Patriots will take on the 7-0 Colts in Indianapolis. One of those ESPN reports noted that tickets are selling for as much as $1,800.

Whoa.

According to another report, there also are other games on this Sunday, as in other NFL games. I checked this morning's paper to verify this startling rumor, and was surprised to find out that it held water. There are, in fact, 13 "other games."

So let's see if I can build on a decent 9-4 week which propelled my overall picking record to a still-dismal 62-39.

At New Orleans (3-4) 24, Jacksonville (5-2) 19: The Saints continue to march after that 0-4 start.

At Detroit (5-2) 27, Denver (3-4) 20: I'm still not convinced the Lions are for real, but they're good enough to beat an underachieving Broncos team. The Roy Williams-Dre Bly matchup should be fun to watch.

At Atlanta (1-6) 16, San Francisco (2-5) 10: Do not watch this game.

Green Bay (6-1) 24, at Kansas City (4-3) 21: Another late drive by Brett Favre wins this one. He's having so much fun, he might never retire.

At Cleveland (4-3) 21, Seattle (4-3) 14: The Browns continue to act as the AFC's greatest surprise.

Washington (4-3) 17, at N.Y. Jets (1-7) 9: This will not be a pleasant first start for Jets QB Kellen Clemens.

San Diego (4-3) 31, Minnesota (2-5) 17: Chargers continue to roll, saving Norv Turner his job.

At Buffalo (3-4) 24, Cincinnati (2-5) 19: I am officially off the Bengals bandwagon.

At Tampa Bay (4-4) 24, Arizona (3-4) 14: Cardinals are a terrible road team.

At Oakland (2-5) 17, Houston (3-5) 14: Apparently people in Houston and Oakland will get this game on CBS instead of Super Bowl XLI1/2. Ouch.

At Philly (3-4) 31, Dallas (6-1) 24: The players on the Eagles dedicate this performance to Andy Reid and the hardships he's going through with his family.

At Pittsburgh (5-2) 17, Baltimore (4-3) 13: These Steelers are for real while these Ravens aren't as tough as they're rumored to be.

Super Bowl XLI1/2: New England (8-0) 34, Indianapolis (7-0) 31: While I am a huge advocate of getting outdoors on Sunday afternoons and enjoying the fall leaves, this is a game you might want to stay in front of the TV for. In fact, this game will almost certainly be better than the actual Super Bowl.

If these teams meet again in the AFC Championship Game, that will top this because of what will be at stake, but the real Super Bowl's got nothing on this game.

I expect plenty of offense from both sides, with the outcome coming down to who has the ball last. That will be the Patriots, as Tom Brady will march them down the field for the winning field goal.

OK, that's enough analysis. I don't want to be a hypocrite.

Enjoy the game everyone. Except for you folks in Oakland and Houston (hah hah hah hah).

Michigan hoops preview: Beilein's first season won't be smooth

ON COLLEGE BASKETBALL

The John Beilein Era is unofficially underway in Ann Arbor. Beilein coached his first game as a Wolverine Thursday night, leading Michigan to a 78-40 exhibition victory over Ferris State inside a brighter Crisler Arena.

While the dank arena's light finally has been adjusted to create a little atmosphere in the building, don't expect Beilein's first team to to light up opponents. This season is going to be a learning process for both Beilein and his players.

Michigan has just one contributing senior in Ron Coleman, who isn't exactly a take-over-the-game player. He occasionally makes open outside jumpers, but averaged only 5.7 points per game last season and isn't very apt at creating shots for himself.

OK, let's move to the juniors expected to play significant minutes: Jerret Smith and Jevohn Shepherd. I'm going to continue to rip Smith as the worst starting point guard in the Big Ten until he proves me wrong. Maybe Beilein will be able to mold him into a consistent floor leader.

But last season Smith was painfully inconsistent, which isn't a good sign for a player who to begin with displays just average skills. Thursday's 15-minute, five-point, four-turnover performance was not a good harbinger for Smith. Freshman point guard Kelvin Grady played 16 minutes and was a putrid 1-for-7 from the field, but he didn't turn it over.

Beilein shouldn't wait long on Smith. If he's not adequately leading the team, give the freshman a shot.

A junior new to the team who could be a pleasant surprise is Zack Gibson, a Rutgers transplant. The 6-foot-10 Gibson showed potential against Ferris State, making all three of his field goal attempts and grabbing three rebounds in 19 minutes. On a team lacking experience, Gibson will likely be thrown into the fire right away. Thursday was an indication that he might just be ready.

Now, as we get to the sophomores, we're finally exploring the meat of the team — albeit inexperienced meat.

Ekpe Udoh and DeShawn Sims played significant minutes last season and should start in the Nov. 9 opener against Radford. While Sims struggled during the Big Ten slate last winter — when he was clearly affected by the tragic death of his brother — he played his best in the final few games, scoring a career-high 14 points in Michigan's second-to-last game — a NIT win over Utah State.

Now the 6-foot-8 forward has expanded his shooting range to 3-point land, where he made three of six attempts Thursday — three more than he made all last season. Reports have it that Sims picked up Beilein's 3-point shooting/Princeton-like offense the quickest of any player and his 14 points in 25 minutes Thursday agreed.

Sims still has a lot of room for improvement, including in the rebounding department. Sims grabbed just 2.3 boards a game last season, and with Michigan's top two rebounders gone, he'll be counted on for at least four or five a game.

Udoh, Michigan's third leading rebounder of a year ago, will also be relied on heavily to hit the boards. The wiry 6-10 forward showed signs of brilliance last year, especially on the defensive end where his extremely long wingspan got in the way of myriad opponents' shots. With fellow shot blockers Courtney Sims and Brent Petway gone, it will be Udoh's responsibility to lead Michigan's interior defense.

Udoh provided a sneak preview of the defensive season he might have Thursday, blocking four shots and snatching five boards in 19 minutes. The big question is regarding his offensive versatility. He'll likely be counted on to make several passes from the interior in Beilein's offense. Will he read defenses correctly? And will he be able to finish his opportunities in the paint?

After playing in all 35 games a year ago, Udoh should be prepared to accept a significant role as one of the team's leaders.

OK, just like that, we're down to the freshmen, the biggest question marks who could make this squad a group of overachievers or be a part of a team that compiles several losses.

Thursday was just one exhibition game, but the signs are positive. Mr. Basketball in the state of Michigan, Manny Harris, was the Wolverines' best player, scoring 15 points — including 7-of-9 from the free-throw line — and grabbing nine rebounds.

The 6-5 forward displayed an aggressiveness that has been lacking on the Michigan teams of the past few years. If he can develop into a player who can drive to the basket at will and create for his teammates, the dividends will be enormous. Of course it was only one exhibition game, but Harris could become the player who — along with Beilein — gets Michigan to its first NCAA tournament since 1998.

The other key true freshman is Grady, who is billed as a true point guard. Michigan has lacked a fundamentally sound pass-first floor leader for quite awhile now, so if Grady can develop into that player, it will be a huge boost for the program.

Grady definitely needs to improve his shooting, however, in order to thrive in Beilein's offense. He made just 1-of-5 3-pointers on Thursday, offsetting the biggest positive he brought to the court: a 4-to-0 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Medical redshirt freshman K'Len Morris was the other frosh who played significant minutes Thursday. The 6-4 wingman scored seven points to go along with five rebounds in 21 minutes. With Morris and redshirt freshman Anthony Wright, a 6-6 forward, in the rotation, Beilein has 10 players he can rotate in and out, which will allow the Wolverines to run more and jack up loads of 3-pointers.

Michigan's new style of play was evident right away Thursday when it launched two 3-pointers in the opening 28 seconds. It finished the night 10-for-28 (35.7 percent) from behind the arc — not a bad debut at all.

Expect the Wolverines to shoot 3-pointers until their arms fall off this season. I wouldn't be surprised if everyone except Gibson attempts a 3 — even Udoh, who has a decent mid-range shot but would be hard-pressed to expand the range of his line-drive release.

Unfortunately for this young squad, wins won't come easy — especially early in the season. After home games against Radford and Brown, the Wolverines play Georgetown, a national title contender, on the road and then face Butler in the first round of the Great Alaska Shootout, with a possible second round game against the ACC's Virginia Tech.

Michigan closes out November by hosting Boston College in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge and then plays at Duke and home against UCLA in December. Home games against Oakland and Central Michigan and a trip to take on fired coach Tommy Amaker's Harvard team won't be walkovers, either.

When the Wolverines open their Big Ten schedule by hosting Wisconsin on Jan. 2, they could easily have a losing record. And while the Big Ten is down this season — a recurring theme, it seems, in the past couple years — Michigan would do well to win half its conference games (even though it's lucky to face conference favorite Michigan State just once).

Here's how I see the Big Ten shaking out:

1. Michigan State.
2. Indiana.
3. Ohio State.
4. Wisconsin.
5. Minnesota.
6. Illinois.
7. Penn State.
8. Michigan.
9. Purdue.
10. Iowa.
11. Northwestern.

The only two teams who I see having a shot are MSU and Indiana, who both feature players who could win national awards — MSU senior guard Drew Neitzel and Indiana super freshman guard Eric Gordon. The Hoosiers also return several experienced veterans, including senior forward D.J. White who scored 13.8 points per game last season.

But will the Hoosiers and coach Kelvin Sampson be distracted by the illegal phone calls case which has already resulted in an assistant coach resigning?

Ohio State and Wisconsin are both question marks, with several newcomers, not to mention injury issues (at least for the Badgers), but Thad Matta of the Buckeyes and Bo Ryan of the Badgers always get the most out of their players, and I expect them to get everyone on the same page to make the NCAA tournament.

What happens with Tubby Smith and the Gophers is up for debate, but with every starter back from last year's team — although, I must add, last year's team was awful — a return to the NCAA tournament isn't out of the question.

I see Illinois and Penn State on the outside looking in, although I didn't expect last year's Illinois squad to make the tournament and it surprised me.

Either way, the Big Ten will be challenged to get five teams in the tournament come mid-March. Michigan won't be one of them for 10th consecutive season.

But that doesn't mean there won't be excitement within the brighter cobwebs of Crisler Arena this season. These young Wolverines could put a scare in some of the big dogs on their schedule with their new shoot-until-you-drop system, and they might just surprise a few people.

Most importantly, just one key player — Coleman — is scheduled to leave the program at the season's conclusion. By March all the freshmen, sophomores and juniors should be comfortable following Beilein's lead, which will lay the foundation for a bright future.

And maybe, at some point, a long-awaited return to tournament they call the Big Dance.

Duke runs circles around Shaw

DURHAM, N.C. — If anything can be gleaned from the Duke University men's basketball team's 134-55 pasting of Shaw in its first exhibition game Thursday night, it's that the 2007-08 Blue Devils love to run.

And run.

And run some more.

Using a rotation of nine players, eight of whom played 16-plus minutes, the Blue Devils ran Shaw out of Cameron Indoor Stadium early and often.

Leading 9-5 with 16 minutes, 23 seconds left in the first half, Duke scored 27 consecutive points to take a 36-5 advantage and send the Cameron Crazies into a frenzy. The Blue Devils added 32 points before halftime to take a 68-17 lead into the locker room.

Freshman forward Kyle Singler led 10 Blue Devils in double figures with 23 points in just 19 minutes. Senior captain DeMarcus Nelson added 17, and sophomores Lance Thomas — who made all six of his field goal attempts — and Gerald Henderson each scored 15.

While Duke was running most of the night, Thomas did the majority of his work in the half-court offense, where he was very effective in the paint. One question entering the season is who will score down low, and Thomas was the answer to that question on Thursday.

But Duke's fullcourt pressure defense, which caused 34 turnovers, was its main ingredient for success. Shaw's miscues resulted in 55 points for Duke.

“I was pleased with our effort," Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said. "We’re trying to install a new system, both offensively and defensively.

"It was good to play 40 minutes like that, get a look at our half-court defense, our press and our running game."

Duke played a fullcourt man-to-man defense for the entire first half, but mixed things up in the second half, occasionally employing a 2-3 zone. Thomas and Jon Scheyer — who scored 11 points, albeit on 3-for-11 shooting — led Duke with five steals apiece. Singler had three of the team's four blocked shots.

The 134 points was more than Duke scored all of last season. And Duke did it despite shooting 8-for-28 (28.6 percent) from 3-point range. The Blue Devils finished 49-for-86 (57 percent) from the field compared to 21-for-65 (32.3 percent) for Shaw, which was outrebounded 56-29.

Jonathan Mudd and Camontae Griffin led Shaw with 11 points apiece.

Duke freshman point guard Nolan Smith scored 10 points and dished out seven assists. Greg Paulus, Brian Zoubek, Martynas Pocius and Taylor King also scored 10. Even Jordan Davidson, Duke's last man off the bench who entered the game in the final 2 minutes, got himself in the box score with a mid-range jumper, which brought forth the biggest cheers of the night from the crowd.

"It’s been a while since we’ve had 10, and when Dave (McClure) comes back, 11 guys who are pretty good basketball players," Krzyzewski said. "You have to coach who you have.

"This (running) system lends itself to having depth and having good players. Hopefully some of them can become outstanding players.”

Singler, who shot 10-for-11 from the field, with his only miss coming from behind the arc, attacked the basket relentlessly. He has now led Duke in scoring in its two games — against Shaw and in the Blue-White scrimmage last Saturday. Singler, Smith and King make up a trio of freshmen that aren't wasting time becoming accustomed to Duke basketball.

“You couldn’t really tell in a game like this but they’re really competitive," Henderson said of the freshmen. "We’ve been practicing for a good three weeks now, and I’ve been impressed with just how competitive they are.

"All three of them are really talented but all three of them have heart and they’re all winners. I love having them on our team and they’re going to contribute a lot this year.”

Krzyzewski's only critique of the freshmen was that they need to set their feet before launching 3-pointers. King was 2-for-7 from behind the arc after lighting up Cameron for five triples in the scrimmage.

The game marked a return to Durham for Shaw coach Robert Brickey, who played for Duke from 1986-1990, helping the Blue Devils to three Final Fours and earning all-Atlantic Coast Conference honors in 1987-88. Brickey also served as Duke's captain in 1990.

All the NBA needed was one night

ON BASKETBALL

It's a shame the Houston-Los Angeles Lakers game didn't end until after 1 a.m. Tuesday night on the East Coast. The theater was that great. Even for a first game of an 82-game season.

As I stood in my living room, on my tiptoes, my heart beating fast, watching the Lakers erase a 12-point deficit in the final 1:36 before Houston's Shane Battier hit the game-winning 3-pointer, I forgot about the NBA's awful summer.

I stopped thinking about Tim Donaghy. About the awful Finals ratings from June. About Kobe Bryant's incessent trade demands.

Ironically, Bryant was at the center of Opening Night's action, lighting up the Staples Center with 45 points after he was booed while being introduced. Critics can say all they want about Bryant's constant complaints and selfish play, but no one can argue that he doesn't play his heart out every game when he's on the court.

And, boy, is he fun to watch. Even with the Rockets up by an insurmountable 12 points and the Lakers faithful heading for the exits, Bryant didn't quit on his current (but maybe not for long) team, launching the improbable comeback with a three-point play followed by a 3-pointer.

Rumors have swirled the past couple days about a possible trade involving Bryant becoming a Chicago Bull. If Lakers management wants its team to remain in the conversation when discussing the NBA, it better not deal Bryant. He is the lone reason fans still pack the Staples Center. He is the only reason the otherwise morbid Lakers still receive attention nationwide. Sans Bryant, the Lakers could become (gasp!) the Clippers.

Tuesday night was a long-awaited night for NBA commissioner David Stern. The best franchise in sports, the San Antonio Spurs, received their championship rings before defeating the young Portland Trail Blazers. The Spurs added a win on Wednesday to stay perfect at 2-0.

If Stern is ever accosted by a critic who says, "Your entire league is a scam," Stern can point toward The Alamo as evidence to the contrary. Not only do the Spurs win, but their superstar, Tim Duncan, understands how to increase their chances of adding more NBA titles in the next five years.

Duncan signed a two-year, $40 million extension Tuesday that will keep him in San Antonio through the 2011-12 season. He could have asked — and gotten — $51 million, but he keenly realized that the $11 million he didn't take could be used to re-sign other key players, so he made the sacrifice.

Find me one other superstar who volunteers to accept $11 million less for the sake of his organization. Stern, who was in attendance Tuesday night, should have given Duncan a big bear hug and thanked him for giving the league some positive publicity.

But compared to the burn the NBA sustained during the summer, the league must feel pretty comfortable now that the games have begun. When the biggest issue in the news is whether Bryant will be traded, things are balmy for the NBA.

Sure, there will be Donaghy references throughout the season whenever fans (or Mark Cuban) are upset with a ref's calls, but Stern n' Company undouubtedly are prepared.

As long as the basketball is as entertaining as it was on Opening Night, Stern can smile — or at least sit and relax for a minute.

The NBA's product remains pretty enticing.

Young hungry players led '07 Red Sox

ON BASEBALL

(Editor's Note: This column will not contain one mention of the Yankees or Alex Rodriguez. Neither party deserves to steal the national spotlight (at least for now) from the one and only 2007 World Series champions, the Boston Red Sox.)

The Boston Red Sox have done it again. They've won their second World Series in four years after going dry from 1918 until 2004.

But anyone who thinks the 2004 and 2007 Red Sox were similar teams is kidding themselves. The team on the field Sunday night bore close to no resemblance to the comeback kids of '04.

Sure, there were the stars — David Ortiz, Manny Ramirez and Jason Varitek — in the field, and the veteran presence of Curt Schilling in the dugout, but all around them were new faces. And the new faces were the main contributors this October, helping to place the city of Boston in a state of utopia (with the Red Sox winning, the indomitable Patriots 8-0, Boston "freakin!" College No. 2 in the BCS and the Celtics about to tip-off the most anticipated season in 20 years).

In 2004 it was closer Keith Foulke shutting down the St. Louis Cardinals and then jumping into the embrace of Veritek after the final out. In 2007, while Varitek remained the catcher, young buck Jonathan Papelbon was the shutdown closer. It was the peppy Papelbon who leaped into Varitek's arms after striking out Seth Smith to finish off the WS sweep after the seven-game, come-from-behind ALCS victory over Cleveland.

Without Papelbon, there's no way the Red Sox would be World Series champions. He was impeccable during the postseason, not allowing a single run — and just five hits — in 10-plus innings. Even after setup man Hideki Okajima allowed a two-run homer in the eighth inning of Game 4, which cut Boston's lead to 4-3, you knew Papelbon would come in and finish the deal.

No doubt about it. There's one key new guy.

Let's examine the starting pitching. In 2004 it was Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe, Schilling and Tim Wakefield who shut down the Cardinals. In 2007 Schilling was still a part of the rotation — albeit sans a bloody sock — but Wakefield was left off the World Series roster with an injury, and it was a trio of newcomers who got the job done.

Josh Beckett, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Jon Lester, who was the winning pitcher of the clinching game despite going through lymphoma treatment just nine months earlier — an absolutely remarkable feat. Beckett has moved himself alongside Reggie Jackson in the October Hall of Fame with his postseason performances.

First there he was in 2003, pitching a shutout on three days rest to clinch the World Series for the Marlins in Yankee Stadium. Then there was '07, when Beckett was 4-0 in the postseason, including his huge Game 5 outing in the ALCS, which flipped the momentum switch from the Indians to the Red Sox, who didn't lose again.

Three new pitchers, great results.

And how about the Sox' feisty, young lineup. Ortiz and Ramirez didn't get the big hits in this Fall Classic. Rather it was the "other" guys, the players we could have mistaken for supermarket workers in '04.

There was Jacoby Ellsubry, a late-season callup, collecting four hits in Game 3 and sparking his team once again with two hits and a run scored in the clincher. He hit .438 in the series.

There was Dustin Pedroia, a 5-foot-9, 180-pound little squirt who could be mistaken for a UPS driver on the street, knocking the big two-run double in Game 3 that all but ended Colorado's hopes at turning around the series.

There was Julio Lugo, as skinny as a pogo stick, hitting .385 in the series and quietly playing flawless defense at shortstop.

I could name more new, unselfish players who contributed for the '07 Red Sox, but I figure you want me to get to my point.

Well here it is: In team sports today, championship teams (with the rare exception of the San Antonio Spurs) cannot simply bring back the same group of players season after season and expect to win. Yes, even the Patriots' roster this season is drastically different from the makeup of their 2004 championship team.

New blood has to be brought in. Players eager to prove themselves and reach the pinnacle of sports need to become integral parts of the organization. Even if they say they are, most players who have won a championship do not have the same drive to win another one. With their comfortable salaries and their perfectly fitting championship rings, they can live without reaching the zenith of their profession again.

This usually affects their play, even if the difference isn't noticeable. If you examine important members of the '04 Red Sox, such as Martinez, Johnny Damon and Kevin Millar, they haven't been the same players since. Of course injuries are a factor — especially when talking about Martinez — but so is desire. When you've already proven that you can buck the odds, that you can become a member of the first team in baseball history to come back from a 3-0 series deficit, you don't need to show the world a thing. You have nothing left to prove.

This year's Red Sox had something to prove. Their clubhouse overflowed with players who had never made it to baseball's biggest stage, who were unknown in baseball circles outside of Boston. Even veterans such as Beckett and Mike Lowell, the World Series MVP, had a chip on their shoulder.

Both players had won the 2003 World Series with Florida, but had fallen into oblivion in the following years. Both signed pretty hefty contracts with Boston in 2006, but failed to deliver the Red Sox to the playoffs in their first year. Playing in front of the skeptical eyes of Red Sox Nation, both had to show the organization that it hadn't made a mistake in bringing them to Beantown.

Mission accomplished.

Now the talk amongst RSN is that the Red Sox have the pieces to compete for multiple championships in the years to come. And they do. Papelbon, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Lugo, Lester — they're all young. And Lowell, Beckett and Ortiz aren't too old themselves.

But Boston should also be cautious. Don't become too stagnant. Don't let any player become too comfortable. Just look at what's happened to the White Sox since they won the World Series in 2005. They fell all the way to fourth place in the AL Central this year with many of the same players (but not close to the same production) from the special '05 squad.

The 2007 Red Sox were special in their own way. Just like the '04 Red Sox. And if Boston is to win another championship in the years to come, it will likely occur with several new faces.

Hungry to compete on that grandest of stages. And hungry to hold that trophy and spray that sweetest-tasting champagne on earth.

All for the first time.