Led by Morris, young Wolverines a pleasant suprise

ON BASKETBALL

You know what's amazing? Let me explain...

It's amazing, to me, that in today's sports world, a player can go from being relatively obscure and uninvolved one year to being an absolutely stud the next. And surprise everyone in doing it.

Coming into this college hoops season, any fan knew that a Harrison Barnes, that a Kyrie Irving, that a Josh Selby would be impact players as freshmen for their respective teams. Everyone knew that a player like Tyler Zeller would be much improved  as long as he stayed out of the training room.

But what did anyone know about Michigan guard Darius Morris?

Last season, I watched the majority of Michigan games, and Morris was never really a factor despite the fact that the Wolverines had a major need at point guard — Morris' natural position. Morris started 19 games, but averaged just 4.4 points and 2.6 assists per outing.

He most often played off Michigan's go-to guys, Manny Harris and DeShawn Sims, taking spot-up jumpers that looked like misses — and were — the second they left his fingertips.

He looked lost. Disengaged. Unassertive.

In other words, the exact opposite of how he looks now. Because of an aggressive, confidant, creating Morris, the Wolverines (9-2) are easily exceeding the canyon-low expectations that were fairly set for them before the seasons.

On Saturday, they cruised by an Oakland team, 6-6, that is playing a murderer's row non-conference schedule and was coming off its biggest win in school history at No. 7 Tennessee.

Morris has breathed new life into these Wolverines, even if the half-full library crowds at Crisler Arena haven't indicated such a positive upswing. Maybe the fans still don't believe. Heck, I didn't believe my eyes the first three times I watched Morris effortlessly lead the Wolverines fastbreak and create something out of nothing with the shot clock winding down.

But I'm a believer now. Darius Morris, averaging 14.9 points, 7.1 assists and 3.5 rebounds per game, is one of the best point guards in an absolutely stacked Big Ten. And these young, overachieving Wolverines will go as far as he takes them.

Morris worked out with John Wall over the summer, and when watching him, you can see similarities to the No. 1 draft pick. No, Morris isn't as explosive, or quick, or (fill in an exceptional skill of Wall's) — but the guard from California now plays with a great amount of confidence, loves to have the ball in his hands, and never shies away from a big shot.

Michigan needed a leader to step up with Harris and Sims gone. Morris hasn't wasted a second in accepting that role.

He's also been the leader of the Wolverines' biggest strength — their defense. He's put ball pressure on each opponent's PG, making it difficult to set up their offense. He's been the catalyst for Michigan's surprisingly good man-to-man D, which has been so effective, John Beilein hasn't even spent much time working on his patented 1-3-1 zone.

These Wolverines have been far from aesthetic. They've gone through some ugly scoring droughts and built mansions out of 3-point bricks. But their defense has kept them in games, and their point guard has ended those droughts.

Is Michigan an NCAA Tournament team? I would be shocked if that happened. But this extremely young outfit is achieving much more than anyone anticipated, and that's all that one can ask for.

They've been led by their biggest surprise of all.

If you haven't learned the name, you will soon.

Darius Morris, the super sophomore.

2010-11 belated college basketball preview: predicting the 68

Yes, I'm a cheater. I already know that Minnesota and Vanderbilt have quality wins over North Carolina. I've already seen Duke crush three opponents by about 1,437 — and look damn impressive doing it. I've already watched Pitt tough out two games and Ohio State win in the Swamp.

But, still, the college hoops season is extremely young. Which is why I feel it's fair to make my belated predictions for the new Field of 68. Without further ado — and without viewing the scores from tonight's games — my picks:

THE CHAMPIONS (31 teams)

Big East

Pitt: Maybe no team in the country is better and more comfortable at grinding out close wins, and with the ball in Ashton Gibbs' hands, why not? This team is experienced and hungry for a title.

Metro Atlantic

Fairfield: The Stags have improved their win total four years running, and now return four starters. That might just be enough to unseat those Siena Saints.

America East

Vermont: The Catamounts aren't loaded, but often in these smaller conference tournaments, the teams — and coaches — that have been there before prevail.

Atlantic 10

Temple: It's hard to pick against the Owls and their back-to-back conference crowns. Point guard Juan Fernandez returns to lead the way.

Ivy League

Princeton: People are pretty high on Tommy Amaker's crew at Harvard, but the Crimson will really miss Jeremy Lin. That's why I'm taking a flier on the up-and-coming Tigers.

Patriot League

American: Living in DC, I attend every Eagles home game. And this team is stacked. A team returning all of its top players from a year ago adds transfers Troy Brewer (Georgia) and Charles Hinkle (Vandy).

Northeast

Quinnipiac: There are four new coaches implementing new systems in the league, but one player who knows how to win is the conference's POY Justin Rutty.

ACC

Duke: Only injuries could derail this from happening. These Devils are that good; the Tar Heels are still rebuilding; and the Hokies are still learning how to tough-out games they should win.

MEAC

Morgan State: Here's a small conference that could be devoid of drama — again. The Bears have claimed three consecutive titles and return enough talent and experience to make it four.

Big South

Coastal Carolina: They had a phenomenal regular season only to watch — guess who? — Winthrop steal the tournament bid. Not this time. A pair of South Carolina transfers won't let it happen.

CAA

Old Dominion: The Monarchs return all but one key player from the squad that took down Notre Dame in the Big Dance. Yeah, they'll be back.

Southern

Wofford: After coming within a few hairs of taking down Wisconsin in the tournament, Wofford returns four starters and five seniors.

SEC

Florida: The Gators return a starting lineup that features three seniors hungry for some success considering their unmet expectations the past three years. Talented freshmen also are on the scene.

Ohio Valley

Murray State: Easy choice. The Racers return eight contributors from the fun-to-watch outfit that took down Vandy in the Dance and almost snuck by St. Mary's.

Atlantic Sun

Lipscomb: Betcha can't guess who the nation's leading returning scorer is? Heard of Adrian Hodzic? Nope, me neither. But the dude dropped in 22.7 ppg a year ago.

Sun Belt

North Texas: The Mean Green — best name ever, by the way — will make it to the Dance for the third time in five years thanks to double-double machine George Odufuwa (pronounce that!).

Summit

Oakland: Now that the talented Grizzlies finally got a brief taste of NCAA Tournament fever, they really want to return. NBA prospect Keith Benson (17.3 ppg, 10.5 rpg) will make sure of that.

Big Ten

Michigan State: Ohio State's going to present quite the challenge, and Illinois, Purdue and Minnesota will also be tough (and Northwestern!). But the Spartans will emerge from a loaded conference.

Mid-American

Ohio: One of the most entertaining games to watch on the first night of the crazy tournament was Ohio's thrashing of Georgetown. The Bobcats couldn't be stopped. With most of the catalysts back, expect similar results.

Conference USA

Memphis: The young Josh Pastner is quietly assembling a, um, young, loaded squad at Calipari's old stomping grounds. Expect a return to normalcy in the conference.

Horizon

Butler: They'll miss Gordon Hayward, no doubt, but don't think for a second that these Bulldogs will lapse during conference play. Under Brad Stevens, they'll continue to dominate the conference.

Big 12

Kansas State: Sorry, Kansas, but your rivals will be the ones to steal your grasp of the league. I love Jacob Pullen — fear the beard! — and his late-game heroics, and the frontcourt is loaded.

Missouri Valley

Wichita State: The Shockers return all but one key player from a team that came a win away from taking the place of Cinderella Northern Iowa in the Dance.

Southland

Texas State: Anytime you add a Kentucky transfer — A.J. Stewart — to a Southland team, things are usually looking up. Such is the case for Texas State.

SWAC

Jackson State: Despite an injury to preseason player of the year Grant Maxey, the Tigers won the regular-season crown by three games. Now Maxey, plus four other starters, returns. Watch out.

WAC

Utah State: The Aggies are one of the most consistent, and overlooked, programs in the country. Of course, that does happen when you don't play anybody. But within the league, they dominate.

Big Sky

Weber State: The Wildcats, I'm sure, have used the entire offseason to work as hard as possible to forget the sting of blowing a 20-point lead against Montana in the conference title game. No repeat.

Mountain West

San Diego State: I love Steve Fisher's squad, which returns five starters, including double-double guy Kawhi Leonard. The Aztecs could do some damage in the Dance.

Pac-10

Washington: Arizona and Freshman of the Year Derrick Williams are up-and-coming and will be back in the Dance, but the Huskies are clearly the class of the league led by G's Isaiah Thomas and Abdul Gaddy.

Big West

UCSB: The Gauchos have the returning POY (Orlando Johnson) and a dude who had nine 20-point games (James Nunnally). Enough said.

West Coast

Gonzaga: Speaking of enough said, guess who dominates their conference every year? The 'Zags might need to win the conference tournament considering their nonconference war zone: SDSU, Kansas State, Duke/Marquette, Illinois, at Notre Dame, Baylor, Xavier and Oklahoma State. Brutal!

THE AT-LARGE BIDS (37 teams)

*In order of higher-seeded teams

ACC
Virginia Tech
North Carolina
N.C. State
Virginia Tech
Maryland
Miami

Atlantic 10
Dayton
Xavier 
Richmond

Big East
Villanova
Georgetown
Syracuse
West Virginia
Marquette
Louisville

Big Ten
Ohio State
Illinois
Purdue
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Northwestern

Big 12
Kansas
Missouri
Baylor
Texas
Texas A&M

Missouri Valley
Creighton

Mountain West
BYU
UNLV 

Pac-10
Arizona
Arizona State
UCLA

SEC
Kentucky
Mississippi State
Tennessee
Georgia
Vanderbilt

NBA Playoffs preview

ON BASKETBALL

We're just minutes away from one of the most anticipated games that will, ultimately, mean close to nothing come mid-April. Miami-Boston has been dominating the airwaves all day -- I can say that with confidence, even though my ears haven't been tuned to the airwaves.

Whatever happens, however, between the new and old Big Three won't matter until they meet, I believe, again in May.

With that hint, my playoff predictions. Check back in, oh, eight months to see how I did:

WESTERN CONFERENCE
First round
(1) L.A. Lakers def. (8) Denver Nuggets: 4 games
(5) San Antonio Spurs def. (4) Utah Jazz: 6 games
(3) Dallas Mavericks def. (6) Phoenix Suns: 7 games
(2) Oklahoma City Thunder def. (7) Portland Trail Blazers: 5 games

Second round
(1) L.A. Lakers def. (5) San Antonio Spurs: 5 games
(2) Oklahoma City Thunder def. (3) Dallas Mavericks: 7 games

Conference finals
(1) L.A. Lakers def. (2) Oklahoma City Thunder: 7 games -- Remember last year? The Thunder dominated Games 3 and 4 to even the series, fell flat like most inexperienced teams would on the road in Game 5, then came a missed box-out away from taking Game 6. With that experience under their belt, they'll be much more scary on the road and better all around. New acquisition Matt Barnes, however, will do a good job of making Kevin Durant work for all his points, and L.A. will escape.

EASTERN CONFERENCE
First round
(1) Miami Heat def. (8) Detroit Pistons: 4 games
(4) Milwaukee Bucks def. (5) Chicago Bulls: 7 games
(3) Boston Celtics def. (6) Atlanta Hawks: 7 games
(2) Orlando Magic def. (7) Philadelphia 76ers: 4 games

Second round
(1) Miami Heat def. (4) Milwaukee Bucks: 5 games
(3) Boston Celtics def. (2) Orlando Magic: 6 games

Conference finals
 (1) Miami Heat def. (3) Boston Celtics: 6 games -- It's tempting to pick against the team with the win-it-all-or-else expectations, but, c'mon. In the NBA, the best teams, the teams with the best players, usually win. And you can't make an argument that these Celtics are more talented than the Heat. Plus, there's the huge factor that LeBron will be playing with a chip on his shoulder and will be much, much better than he was in last season's six-game loss to the Celtics when his lone sidekick was Mo Williams. Enough said.

NBA FINALS
L.A. Lakers def. Miami Heat: 6 games -- Something tells me Kobe won't let his chance to be like M.J. and finish a second repeat slip through the cracks. He knows, we all know, this is probably the final year when his Lakers will be the favorites to take home the hardware, and he won't let the new guys on the block steal that opportunity. If everyone is healthy, the Lakers' size will give the Heat fits; Gasol will be his usual dominant self; and if Barnes plays smart defense -- read: no stupid fouls -- he should bother James and/or Wade just enough to help the Lakers send Phil Jackson in a pure state of Zen.

NBA Western Conference preview

ON BASKETBALL

Even a year ago, the argument would have seemed ridiculous, preposterous, insane. Someone in the Western Conference better than Kobe Bryant?

C'mon, man. Get a reality check.

Not anymore, not after Kevin Durant's summer. The kid -- yes, he's still that -- was absolutely phenomenal, clutch and big-time in leading a U.S. team of B-listers to the World Championship. He was, in a word, unstoppable.

And this was after a quite impressive third year in the Association.

So, yes, Bryant has the five NBA title rings and all the experience in the world. But, no, he's not the best player in the Western Conference.

Of course, he doesn't need to be this season. The Lakers return everybody from their back-to-back title teams and are the overwhelming favorite, at least in the majority's eyes, to represent the West in the Finals.

But let's not forget that Durant's Thunder were a missed box-out away from taking L.A. to a Game 7 in round one last April. And the Thunder, undoubtedly, will only be better considering their youth.

The West, quite simply, might be a little more interesting than people are forecasting. In other words, it shouldn't be completely ignored while 123 percent of league pundits are watching the Heat.

(Finishing place in the conference is in parentheses.)

SOUTHWEST DIVISION
(3) Dallas Mavericks, 55-27: Yes, they're ancient. And, yes, some injuries could make this season catastrophic and convince Mark Cuban it's time to blow up the core. But as they stand now, the Mavericks will be damn good. Caron Butler and Braendan Haywood will be more comfortable within the system after a summer, and Jason Terry remains one of the league's most underrated players.

(5) San Antonio Spurs, 52-30: Speaking of old, how 'bout them Spurs? Again, the question is health. Can Tim Duncan stay fresh? Can Manu Ginobili avoid the injury bug? If they stay injury-free, then the fortunes of this team -- as in, can they make a final push for a title? -- will ride on whether Richard Jefferson really is in shape and how well DeJuan Blair and Tiago Splitter help out the Big Fundamental down low.

(9) Houston Rockets, 46-36: So Yao is back. But for how long? That's the issue surrounding this team and the difference between a borderline playoff team and a squad that could win a couple playoff series. The health of Yao's foot. I'm banking on him playing enough games to get them into the playoffs, but he won't be completely healthy. It should be noted that there is a lot of Yao-less talent here, such as Aaron Brooks.

(10) New Orleans Hornets, 42-40: If Chris Paul is healthy, it's hard to pick this team to do that poorly. So, yes, they'll be thinking playoffs for most of the season. The addition of Trevor Ariza will help, as he's a solid buddy in transition for CP3 and is a decent defender. But Emeka Okafor and David West aren't exactly dominant or scary big men, and the defense will struggle.

(11) Memphis Grizzlies, 40-42: Can they stop anybody? That's the question the Grizzlies will need to affirmatively answer if they're going to take that next step to the playoffs. For now, I'd say, 'Nope!' When Your main cogs are O.J. Mayo, Rudy Gay and Zach Randolph, defense isn't the biggest priority. Scoring a lot of points and earning big contracts -- now, that's a goal to have!

NORTHWEST DIVISION
(2) Oklahoma City Thunder, 56-26: It's impossible, really, to overrate Kevin Durant right now. He's the consummate teammate. He's shown that he can take over games when needed. He has a diversified game. He plays solid defense. What else is there? Well, of course a division title ... and then conference title, etc., with an MVP thrown in. This team will only get better. As always, the potential downfall could be injuries.

(4) Utah Jazz, 54-28: So nobody's talking about Utah. What's new? Jerry Sloan somehow, someway, still hasn't won a COY. Don't we say that every year? Bottom line -- with Sloan and Deron Williams running the show, the Jazz will be good. Just how good will depend on how well Al Jefferson replaces Carlos Boozer. I love the move because as solid as Boozer was, Jefferson has more upside. That'll be needed come playoff time.

(T-6) Portland Trail Blazers, 50-32: I'm sorry, but it's hard to get excited about a team that's always hurt. I would never buy tickets before the season for a Blazers game because I could end up watching Jerryd Bayless, Nicholas Batum and Dante Cunningham (no offense). Even if this team is healthy, I don't sense a good enough chemistry to contend for the division or go far in the postseason. Not this year, anyway.

(8) Denver Nuggets, 49-33: This team is almost identical to last year's first-place squad, adds 17.7-ppg Al Harrington and returns head coach George Karl from cancer. But they'll lose more games, mostly because of the distractions surround Carmelo Anthony (and possibly a mid-season trade). And Harrington will be a horrible fit on a team with plenty of guys who love to shoot.

(15) Minnesota Timberwolves, 16-66: There's no reason to think the T-Wolves can't be as bad as they were a year ago (15-67). Their roster remains a discombobulated mess that poor Kurt Rambis has to try to figure out. There are at least three mediocre point guards, malcontent Michael Beasley, and hugely overpaid scrub Darko Milicic. The only decent team guy is Kevin Love until Jonny Flynn learns how to run an offense better.

PACIFIC DIVISION
(1) Los Angeles Lakers, 58-24: They're going to take a page out of the Celtics' playbook, go figure, and decrease Kobe's minutes. Smart move. Of course, they'll try to mostly do this in lopsided games. You won't see him sitting in close games. He'd choke Phil Jackson before letting that happen. Even with a resting Bryant -- and maybe others -- this team remains loaded and will reclaim the top seed come April.

(T-6) Phoenix Suns, 50-32: They're small and they're thin, but no team will be as fun to watch as these Suns. I'm anticipating a bounce-back season from Hedo Turkoglu who, like many before him, will be re-energized by the amazing Steve Nash. I also expect Robin Lopez to help Phoenix fans forget about Amar'e Stoudemire and increase his rebounding numbers twofold. Oh, and Josh Childress is back from Greece.

(12) Los Angeles Clippers, 39-43: Can we please stop the playoff rumblings? Yes, Blake Griffin is going to be good once he takes the court and, presumably, stays healthy. He and Chris Kaman will form a pretty dominant frontcourt. But Baron Davis hasn't been inspired for a couple seasons now, and not even Griffin will get him back to his '07 Warriors form. Eric Gordon could blossom at the 2 spot.

(13) Sacramento Kings, 30-52: It will be interesting to see if this team can develop a cohesiveness that breeds winning, because the talent is there. The frontcourt is loaded with DeMarcus Cousins, Jason Thompson, Samuel Dalembert, etc., but roles need to be established. Who will play what minutes. In the backcourt, there's the question of whether Tyreke Evans should run the point or play off the ball. Answers?

(14) Golden State Warriors, 28-54: I'll say this for the Warriors -- I've never enjoyed watching such a bad team more. I remember catching the fourth quarter of a game last season that I got hooked on instead of the U.S. men's hockey team's Olympic game. That's how fun Stephen Curry, Monta Ellis and company can be. With Don Nelson gone, things might be toned down a notch under Keith Smart, meaning defense will be played. That's a good thing for the team, if not for TV viewers like myself.

Playoff predictions still to come...

NBA Eastern Conference preview

ON BASKETBALL

As we head into this most intriguing of NBA seasons, let's get one thing clear: The regular season really doesn't matter. At least in terms of crowning an NBA champion, it doesn't.

The really good teams will make the playoffs. Whether they're a No. 1, 2, 3 or 4 seed won't affect how they perform in the postseason (just ask last season's Celtics). Sure, the middle-of-the-pack teams will duke it out for playoff spots/saving coaches jobs. But, ultimately, the NBA is a very predictable league. The teams you expect to be playing in June usually are.

Just consider the recent past champions:

2010 — Lakers, No. 1 seed
2009 — Lakers, No. 1 seed
2008 — Celtics, No. 1 seed
2007 — Spurs, No. 1 seed
2006 — Heat, No. 1 seed
2005 — Spurs, No. 1 seed

You get the point.

So with that in mind, here is my short list of teams I actually think could win the 2010-11 NBA title:

Miami
Boston
Orlando (very iffy)
L.A. Lakers
Oklahoma City (yes, Kevin Durant is that good)

With all this being said ... the regular season is going to be very watchable. To start with, every Heat game will grab high ratings simply because of LeBron, D-Wade and crew. It'll be very interesting to see how the team comes together. And it'll be fun to monitor the receptions the team, especially a certain Cleveland outcast, receives in opposing arenas.

So how will things shake out come early April? Let's start with the Eastern Conference.

(Finishing place in the conference is in parentheses.)

ATLANTIC DIVISION
(3) Boston Celtics, 52-30: The Celtics found a winning formula last season: Stink it up during the regular season, fooling everyone into thinking you're finished. Then start playing hard in the playoffs with a healthy, fresh squad and come within a horrid second half of winning it all. I expect a similar formula this time around with more depth in the frontcourt.

(7) Philadelphia 76ers, 39-43: Hopefully Doug Collins paces himself with this team, because it's young and will wear on him constantly. The biggest question mark remains, What the heck has happened to Elton Brand? It's like he's still playing on West Coast time. The backcourt should be pretty strong if Evan Turner lives up to his hype; if not, it will be a long season and more gray hairs for Collins.

(T-11) New York Knicks, 34-48: So the Knicks cleared out their payroll and ended up with Amar'e Stoudemire and ... Carmelo Anthony? Reportedly, 'Melo has been chatting it up with Spike Lee, which is the only reason Knicks fans can be hopeful that a decade of drudgery might end anytime soon. Because the current outfit won't play defense or rebound very well. Not a winning formula.

(13) New Jersey Nets, 32-50: There is hope for the Nets. Devin Harris and Brook Lopez form a nice outside-inside combo, and Derrick Favors has as much upside — yeah, that confounding word — as anyone from the '10 draft. Oh, and they'll improve by almost 20 wins. Baby steps, baby steps. Carmelo would help, but it's not looking likely.

(15) Toronto Raptors, 23-59: Quick — name me two players on the Raptors (and spell their names correctly). Yes, it's officially rebuilding time, since Chris Bosh decided to take his talents to South Beach. Let's not forget that this team features a fairly recent No. 1 pick, Andrea Bargnani, who should now be the focal point of the offense. His progression will be about the most fun thing to watch.

CENTRAL DIVISION
(4) Milwaukee Bucks, 51-31: Nobody talked about this team during the offseason, big surprise. But it made some moves that have it on a path toward a division crown. For one, Andrew Bogut is almost fully recovered from the gruesome elbow/wrist/hand, broken-bone catastrophe. Also, John Salmons is back and Corey Maggette/Drew Gooden are in town. Good moves; improving and dangerous team.

(5) Chicago Bulls, 50-32: Speaking of moves, the Bulls made some very solid ones, too. No, they didn't get the grand prize. But, hey, there's only one South Beach. Carlos Boozer fits perfectly into their lineup alongside defensive-rebounding behemoth Joakim Noah; Ronnie Brewer is a serviceable, team-guy shooting guard; and I have a feeling Kyle Korver will be in at the end of games making outside shots.

(8) Detroit Pistons, 38-44: They won't be as bad as last year, namely because no one wants to repeat that last-place disaster. This roster is better than that. Still, speculation will encircle the futures of Detroit fixtures Richard Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince. And Joe Dumars will, and should, continue to receive a lot of heat for completely ruining an annual championship contender.

(T-11) Indiana Pacers, 34-48: This would be a pretty damn good college team, featuring Darren Collison, Mike Dunleavy, Roy Hibbert, Brandon Rush and, oh, Tyler Hansbrough — with Dahntay Jones and Josh McRoberts coming off the bench. On second thought, the Pacers are one Dukie/Tar Heel short of being able to put an all-Tobacco Road lineup on the floor. Not a good NBA team, though, even led by the stellar Danny Granger.

(14) Cleveland Cavaliers, 30-52: Starting at small forward ... Jamario Moon!! Oh, Cleveland. Yes, this team has the potential (rather, lack thereof) to go from the best team in the East to the worst. It'll be up to Mo Williams, who (jokingly?) considered retirement in the offseason, and Antawn Jamison to carry the offensive load. The only player with "upside" is J.J. Hickson.

SOUTHEAST DIVISION

(1) Miami Heat, 63-19: No, they won't break the Bulls' 72-10 record for regular-season dominance. Injuries are already a problem before the season, as Mike Miller will be out for a few months. That will hurt the team's outside shooting, and, no, Jerry Stackhouse isn't an adequate replacement. I have a feeling the Big Three (do they have a nickname, yet?) also won't be together every night. But, ultimately, this team will be made or broken in the playoffs. Obviously.

(2) Orlando Magic, 55-27: There's no team entering this season — at least teams with potential — with more of a chip on its shoulder. Dwight Howard is mad, and, like James, perhaps will drop a bit of his humorous side in favor of a more serious demeanor. The Magic have been fuming about all the attention their neighbors to the south have received. Howard has worked on a mid-range game. Their fate might depend on how furnished it is.

(6) Atlanta Hawks, 49-33: Guess who received the largest contract during the offseason? Not LeBron, not Chris Bosh. Yep, Joe Johnson. The Hawks didn't really have a choice, either. Actually, the choice was: Stay relevant with Johnson or become irrelevant sans him. Unfortunately, they won't get much better than the team that's looked listless in the second round of the playoffs each of the last two seasons.

(9) Washington Wizards, 36-46: The Positive: John Wall; he's been as advertised during the preseason and is a captain as a rookie. This is his franchise, and, thus, it's headed in the right direction. The Negative: Gilbert Arenas; what a horrible distraction. He's already talked about heading in another direction and parting ways with the Wizards. Well, that isn't happening. And, for now, neither is a playoff season.

(10) Charlotte Bobcats, 35-47:  So Charlotte let Raymond Felton go to New York this offseason and then tried to make a move for a starting point guard — and ultimately failed. And now, Larry Brown is stuck with D.J. Augustin, who spent much of last season in his doghouse. Not good. Brown's best teams have featured a point guard that understood what LB. wanted. Not happening here.

Stay tuned for my Western Conference preview and, finally, playoff predictions.

Could Durant/Oden be the next Jordan/Bowie?

Who imagined this in June of 2007?

When 7-footer Greg Oden was drafted by the Portland Trail Blazers with the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft, there were few harsh critics. Sure, there were many basketball minds who thought Portland might have been smarter taking the skinny, bench-presses-like-a-ninth-grader Kevin Durant out of Texas. But there were no, "OH MY GOD. What are you thinking???" responses.

After all, Oden was destined to become a great player at a position where they just don't produce 'em like they used to. A great center. While Durant was super talented, on the other hand, 6-9 wings were about as abundant in '07 as Facebook users.

So the Blazers took Oden, the Supersonics-soon-to-be-Thunder took Durant, and both parties were pleased. In a perfect, happy world or 2004-draft-world-minus-Darko-Milicic that might be the case.

Sadly for the city of Portland, however, we're instead looking at, gasp, a Jordan-Bowie repeat.

Am I portending things to come? Absolutely. Could I be wrong? In some ways, possibly. But the facts and a set of basketball-watching eyes tell the story.

Let's start with the MJ in this equation...

Anyone who watched Durant dominate the World Championships this summer, leading a team of the NBA's B-listers to a convincing title, can't deny that he's en route to becoming the best player in the Association. Heck, he might even already be there. Better than LeBron. Better than D-Wade. And honestly, barring injury he's almost a shoe-in for MVP in 2010-11 now that the Miami Trio is official.

Durant is two days shy of his 22nd birthday. (Yes, that's not a typo.) When I was 22, I was learning the fine art of staying up all night writing history papers. He'll only get better, and better.

Jordan entered the league more mature and seasoned. After an injury-plagued second season, he put up 37.1 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.6 assists in his third campaign with the Bulls. In Durant's third season with burgeoning Oklahoma City, he averaged 30.1/7.6/2.8. So, no, not quite Jordan-esque numbers, but good enough to compare to the 10-time scoring champion.

As far as scoring, Durant is still learning the fine art of shot selection and isn't as selfish as M.J. -- especially young M.J. -- so he may never average as much as the five-time MVP, especially with explosive Russell Westbrook by his side. But I'm guessing he'll accumulate as many MVPs and we'll see about the titles.

Now to the Bowie part of the equation. Oden, undoubtedly, has plenty of talent and has shown glimpses of it during his first two seasons. But even when he's at his best, he doesn't have close to the impact on a game that Durant has. This is a guard/ballhandler's league, and Oden isn't doing any of that.

Mostly, sadly, he's been on the bench -- often in street cloths.

During Bowie's first two seasons, the 7-foot-1 center played 114 games (missing 48) and averaged around 11 points and 8.5 rebounds. After missing his entire rookie season, Oden has played 82 games (missing a full season's worth of action) over the past two years and averaged about 10 points and eight boards.

So Oden hasn't even been as good as Bowie. Can he be better, can he be consistently good? Yes, of course. But at this point, it's almost inevitable that Oden will not live up to his status as a No. 1 draft pick -- and this task is made all the more daunting by the production Durant is amassing.

Many basketball experts say there will never be another Michael Jordan. And there's a good chance they're right. So perhaps the Oden-Durant draft will never quite get the same attention as Jordan-Bowie did (and continues to receive through books). But to be able to write pretty definitively after three seasons about the opposite fortunes of the two speaks to just how disparate their NBA careers have been.

Of course, Portland never would have received so much backlash over the Bowie selection if Jordan hadn't gone on to win six titles for the Bulls while the Blazers haven't won a trophy since pre-ESPN. If Durant fails to lead the Thunder to championships in a stocked NBA and Portland does all right -- it's still a playoff team minus a healthy/great Oden -- this won't be a big deal.

I'm not predicting that, though. Durant has 10 great years left in the league, and the Thunder are assembling a behemoth. I foresee multiple titles for KD & Co.

Which will leave the entire Northwest -- don't forget about Seattle! -- feeling about as bitter as Cleveland.

For Wolverines, season's fortunes will depend on defense

ON FOOTBALL

Believe it or not, the shoelaces of Denard Robinson won't be the main determining factor when it comes to Michigan's wins and losses columns this season. Yeah, I know -- it's a tough sell. I don't think shoelaces have ever gotten as much attention during a week. In fact, write it in ink — no untied shoelaces have ever gotten more pub. Period.

And Robinson, and his shoelaces, looked pretty phenomenal last Saturday, as he pressed the turbo button and sped past hordes of helpless Connecticut defenders. But why did the Wolverines defeat the Huskies so handily, 30-10? Because of 11-plus young men in winged helmets who tied their shoelaces and pretty much shut down Connecticut.

Yes, the defense.

Last season, remember, the Wolverines were far from bad on offense. They were near the top of the Big Ten in all offensive categories, scored a ton of points and were fun to watch. But a combination of terrible defense and a horrible turnover ratio led to the collapse from a 4-0 start into a 5-7 season, officially making Rich Rodriguez's seat red hot.

Then the team's top two defenders, Brandon Graham and Donovan Warren, bolted for the NFL, starting cornerback Troy Woolfork busted his leg before the season, and things were looking extremely grim for an inexperienced, no-reason-to-be-confident, undersized defense learning a new 3-3-5 scheme from career unsuccessful coordinator Greg Robinson. Not good at all.

But in the new Big House Saturday, the defense looked OK, which could be enough to win seven or eight games — yes, Wolverines fans, an eight-victory campaign would be very good for this group.

Before you go serenading Michigan a Top 25 team, however (and that talk, really, is ridiculous after just a game), let's see how it handles Notre Dame's offense tomorrow and then, down the road, the Big Ten's top dogs. Let's not go anointing this team special as the national media did last year after a measly two wins, with a Sports Illustrated article and everything.

Lost in all the excitement of the season-opening blowout was the fact that Connecticut played really poorly. The Huskies dropped several balls, fumbled away the pigskin inside the Michigan 10-yard line and generally were out of sorts. The offense was far from sharp. So it's difficult to get a gauge of just how good, or bad, the Wolverines' D is.

The best word to characterize the performance — encouraging. If nothing else, the unit definitely has more confidence going into this weekend, which it will need against the Fighting Irish on the road.

There's no doubt Michigan has talent on the defensive side of the ball. Rodriguez's zealous recruiting hasn't suffered despite his 3- and 5-win seasons to begin his (maybe very short) career in Ann Arbor. There are several players who could quickly make names for themselves this season.

But at this point, be hesitant in giving these Wolverines too much credit. We all know Robinson is a mega talent, not to mention personality, who will probably do more of what he did Saturday the rest of the season (although things will get much more difficult as opposing coaches view film of him and come up with game plans hellbent on confusing him). The offense will be good, possibly very good.

It won't matter, however, unless the D is, well, fine, OK — just not bad.

Its first big test will come at South Bend. Shoelaces tied or not.