NFL Week 4 Picks

ON FOOTBALL

New rules I'm adapting after a mediocre 10-6 week that puts me at 32-16 on the young season:

Never pick the St. Louis Rams...

Never pick the St. Louis Rams...

Never pick the St. Louis Rams...

OK, enough. Thankfully, it's easy to pick against the 0-3 Rams this week. They play the NFC's best team — yes, the Cowboys.

With Steven Jackson out and Marc Bulger's ribs messed up, things could get ugly in Dallas. At least I think...

My picks:

Green Bay (3-0) 24, at Minnesota (1-2) 16: As hard as it is to imagine the Packers 4-0, Minnesota's offense is BAD. Meaning the Pack will stay close with Brett Favre leading them...

At Indianapolis (3-0) 34, Denver (2-1) 14: Broncos fans should turn their attention to baseball's Rockies this afternoon. This will be over quickly.

At San Diego (1-2) 28, Kansas City (1-2) 10: The Chargers would have to really tank to mess up this must-win.

Pittsburgh (3-0) 27, at Arizona (1-2) 18: Nobody's talking about them. But, man, the Steelers are good.

Philadelphia (1-2) 31, at NY Giants 28 (1-2): This will be a shootout. With McNabb throwing accurately, Eagles have last laugh.

At Dallas (3-0) 41, St. Louis (0-3) 17: See above.

At Buffalo (0-3) 20, NY Jets (1-2) 16: Perfect time for Bills to pick up first victory.

At San Francisco (2-1) 24, Seattle (2-1) 21: Home team always rules in the NFC West.

Houston (2-1) 28, at Atlanta (0-3) 21: This could be a trap, but I don't think the Texans have let their early-season success get to them yet. They'll be ready.

Tampa Bay (2-1) 31, at Carolina (2-1) 21: Hard to figure the Panthers. So far they're 2-0 on the road and 0-1 at home. Hmmmm...

At Miami (0-3) 16, Oakland (1-2) 14: This is a week for the bottom feeders to get that elusive first win.

At Cincinnati (1-2) 34, New England (3-0) 28: A much bigger game for the Bengals. Carson Palmer will throw for 400 yards.

Chicago (1-2) 16, at Detroit (2-1) 14: Statement game for a Bears defense that was just as bad as Rex Grossman last week.

I'm out. Enjoy Atlanta's (few remaining) fans greeting Matt Schaub.

Ecstasy and agony

ON BASEBALL

Entering Friday night's slate of games, the National League playoff picture was about as clear as the view from Mt. Everest's peak.

Seven teams were still alive. Not one playoff spot had been clinched. There was the possibility of five teams finishing with identical records. There were approximately 4,319 scenarios for how the weekend could turn out. Baseball fans were prepared for multiple one-game playoffs beginning Monday, with a chance of continuing through Wednesday.

Then the sky cleared. By about midnight, two playoff spots had been clinched — with the Diamondbacks earning a birth with their 4-2 win over the red-hot Rockies, and the Cubs clinching the Central Division due to their 6-0 win over Cincinnati's minor league lineup combined with Milwaukee's 6-3 loss to the Padres.

Also by midnight, two teams had been sent to the very edge of a steep cliff — with the Mets losing again, this time 7-4 to the lowly Marlins, which, combined with the Phillies' 6-0 dispatching of the Nationals, put the men in white and red a game up in the division with a game to play. And the Rockies, who had won 11 straight entering Friday, fell two games behind the Padres in the wild card due to their loss. Any Padres' win or Rockies' loss seals their fate.

Whew! What a crazy night it was.

So what does this all mean, besides the fact that we'll likely not have to face the decision of watching Monday Night Football versus a one-game playoff Monday night?

It means that the Mets are on the verge of completing the greatest late-season collapse since the 1964 Phillies — a bit ironic, considering who just took over the division lead.

It means that Philly sports fans might finally have something to cheer for — just watching them waving those white towels deliriously Friday night, you could tell they've been waiting for this.

And, believe me, if the Phillies hold on, no one will want to play them in the postseason. That lineup is scarier than a Wes Craven flick — keeping them in almost every game — and if the pitching staff gets its act together like Cole Hamels did Friday, in striking out 13 in eight shutout innings, I don't see why the Fighting Phils can't win the pennant.

But, wait, I'm getting ahead of myself. It's easy to discount the Mets, but it's not wise. All you have to do is look back a year to realize that the one thing that matters is getting in.

If — and, yes, I know the size of this "if" rather large — New York can win its final two games, force a playoff with the Phillies, who would have to lose one, and make the playoffs, it couldn't be counted out in the playoffs. Last season the Cardinals and Tigers limped to the regular season's finish line (with St. Louis finishing 3-9 and Detroit giving up the AL Central by losing five straight).

Nobody gave either team a fighting chance in the playoffs. Yankees' fans, I'm sure, were already thinking about the ALCS before their divisional series against the Tigers.

You know what ended up happening. Perhaps aided by the two-day hiatus from baseball, the Cardinals and Tigers got hot when it mattered and ended up in the World Series.

So, yes, it's possible, Mets fans. I know right now you're drowning in despair — and, honestly, it's probably the right recourse; your team likely is done. But, and this is a "but" the size of the Nutty Professor's, if a Philadelphia team lets its devoted fans down (um, has that ever happened??), and your Mets decide to extricate themselves from their grave...

OK, let's move on.

Most of the time baseball analysts are spot on when they say managers aren't as important to a team's success as coaches in other sports. But no baseball guru can play down the genius decision of Arizona skipper Bob Melvin Thursday afternoon.

With showers expected in Pittsburgh, Melvin decided to rest his ace, Brandon Webb, for Friday's huge game against division foe Colorado. Instead, he started super pitcher-hitter Micah Owings, who not only shut out the dismal Pirates, but also went 4-for-4 (on a side note, why don't more pitchers try to hit like Owings: .339 BA, four HRs, 15 RBIs).

Then Webb (18-10) cooled down the Rockies' bats at Coors Field — no small feat — leading Arizona straight into the playoffs.

Not very many people will expect the no-name, no-hitting D'Backs, who at 90-70 have been outscored by several runs, to make any noise in the playoffs. That, of course, makes them all the scarier. With Melvin pulling the strings and a bunch of young, hungry players with a nothing-to-lose attitude, Arizona could shock a lot of people this October.

Just like it did throughout the season.

Standing in the way of the D'Backs is America's team, the Cubs, Cubbies, Northsiders. Whether you are a Cubs fan or not, you can't deny that having them in the playoffs is good for baseball (not to mention TV ratings). With the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs and probably Phillies in the playoffs, this October could turn out to be one of the most remembered in baseball's long, storied history.

All season long, I didn't expect the Cubs to make the playoffs. Even after they overtook the collapsing Brewers for first place, I thought the surging Cardinals would stampede the Cubs. It just seemed like destiny.

A Cubs team with a huge payroll close to $100 million and all the parts... shouldn't make the playoffs. Makes perfect sense, doesn't it? And until Friday night, there was still that possibility.

Chicago had lost three straight to those same Mets-killing Marlins. I could sense the tension in the Windy City from nearly 300 miles away. Mercurial Carlos Zambrano was scheduled to pitch Friday night. A flameout was in the cards, wasn't it?

Not this time. The Cubs didn't waste any time in clinching the division. They didn't mess around with a Reds' lineup that was missing several key players. They kept building the lead until it was a safe 6-0. And then they waited to celebrate...

Until the final score came in from Milwaukee. The Brewers had lost. The Cubs were going back to the playoffs.

There was the traditional sipping and squirting of champagne. Relieved smiles all around. And, I'm sure, plenty of partying on the North Side.

But by the night's wee hours, the talk had turned to the playoffs. And a mission not yet accomplished.

These Cubs, despite featuring just three players from the 2003 team that came so close to the World Series (if you don't know the story, you're not reading this), know the pain that was caused four autumns ago. They're determined to bring the franchise its first World Series championship since 1908.

Their new mission begins next week. As does the Diamondbacks' mission.

By Saturday night, the other half of the National League picture might be cleared up. Or, it's possible, we'll have to wait until Sunday or Monday.

Whatever the case, the National League playoff outlook became much more lucid Friday night, turning uncertainty into ecstasy for a pair of teams while others took a step closer to October baseball and others a step toward October golf.

A bittersweet ending for Tigers

ON BASEBALL

This wasn't how it was supposed to end, I thought...

I stood in the front row of the right field bleachers, my sky blue sweatshirt drenched, my scorecard tucked inside my undershirt so as to stay dry.

The stands surrounding me were empty. So was the field, except for the ominous white tarp covering the infield.

It was only the top of the sixth inning, but yet I had the feeling that it was the bottom of the ninth. A dose of reality, really.

And then the home plate umpire waved his arms, signaling "Game Over." I glanced at the scoreboard and, sure enough, it was over.

The Yankees, 1,199 miles away in St. Petersburg, Fla., had defeated Tampa Bay 12-4, officially eliminating the Tigers from the playoffs. Even though the rain had subsided once again, game officials no longer saw a reason to continue Detroit's final home game. Five innings were in the books. It was official — a shortened 9-4 Tigers victory over Minnesota.

Good night, folks.

At 10:40 p.m. EST many things came to an abrupt halt:
— The Tigers' home schedule.
— The Tigers' playoff chances.
— The rain showers that had engulfed the city for much of the night.

Comerica Park would not see baseball again until the absurdly early March 31, 2008, opener against the Blue Jays (good luck getting that game in).

In a way, the final home game of the season was emblematic of the Tigers season. There were many thrills — highlighted by a six-run fourth inning after the first rain delay. But, ultimately, it ended too early.

Many die-hard fans stuck around until the bitter end, wet and cold, yet itching for a few more innings of Tigers baseball. After all, this season felt incomplete.

Of course, perspective is needed when critiquing the 2007 Tigers. Close to nobody, I'm sure, would have said four years ago that this kind of season — being in contention for a playoff spot until the final week — would be disappointing four years down the line.

But, alas, those in and around the metropolitan area were spoiled by 2006. A season that was too perfect to be true. All the players coming together to accomplish the improbable. Just about everyone staying healthy. And so the story goes...

Repeating the improbable — even if it is no longer improbable — is the challenge. Living up to the all-of-a-sudden huge expectations is a burden that can take its toll.

These Tigers felt it. Pitchers couldn't stay healthy or hid their injury (Jeremy Bonderman). The key newcomer to the lineup (Gary Sheffield) felt the aches and pains of age and struggled, with a bad shoulder, down the all-important stretch run.

The amazing pitching the Tigers got last season didn't repeat itself. Every starter was inconsistent, going through stretches where they simply could not locate their pitches. The bullpen was solid for the most part, yet it still allowed the Tigers to blow several games which looked like sure victories. Turn those "Ls" into "Ws" and the Yanks aren't celebrating yet.

The bottom of the lineup didn't have the punch of a year ago. Craig Monroe wasn't the same player, and ended up being dealt away. Questions, no doubt, will surround Brandon Inge this off-season. He didn't perform well at the plate at any point in '07.

But the most notable thing this team lacked was the ability to pull off the remarkable when it was unexpected — the theme of a year ago. Sure, there were still a few comebacks (with the 5-4 win over the Blue Jays topping the list). But for the most part, when the opposition built a lead late in a game, the Tigers weren't coming back.

There was a lack of walk-offs. Too many strikeouts, popouts and double plays. And even when the Tigers grabbed a late-inning lead, too often — it seemed — the bullpen couldn't hold it.

The magic was gone... sent southeast, one would have to hypothesize, to Cleveland, where the Indians had it all season long. The first sign came in May, when Tigers closer Todd Jones blew an 11-7 ninth-inning lead in a 12-11 loss. The final indication came in last week's three-game sweep for Cleveland, which came back in every game to stun the Tigers.

Yet Detroit, contrary to the opinion of most of the media, wasn't out of the wild card race after the sweep. If not for an uninspiring loss to Kansas City last Saturday, a 2-0 loss to Minnesota Monday night — which was hard to believe, considering Detroit had it best lineup against the mediocre Carlos Silva — and a pair of Yankees' victories over Toronto this past weekend due to the Blue Jays' poor fielding and Yankees' late-inning heroics, the Tigers would still be very much alive heading into their final series in Chicago.

Instead they're done — with many questions lingering heading into the off-season, such as whether Sheffield will return, or Kenny Rogers will be back, or whether Detroit will pick up Ivan Rodriguez's $13-million option.

These are important questions, yet compared to the Qs of four years ago — "What can we do to win 80 games?" — they are minuscule.

As hard as it was for Tigers fans to see their favorite players for the final time in 2007 Wednesday night — especially for a mere five and a third innings — as one postgame show caller educated the listeners on, there are only 142 days (now 141) until pitchers and catchers report to spring training.

I'm sure that as was the case last spring, optimism will be in the air come that calender-marked day.

Taking coach Gundy's side

ON COLLEGE FOOTBALL

I'll never forget the time as a sports writer for my college newspaper when I was berated by football players for an article.

As the Sports Editor of The Pleiad, Albion College's weekly, I wrote an article about how many Albion students would rather watch Michigan or Michigan State football games on TV than attend Albion games. It was a poorly written article — with not enough sources or a wide diversity of sources — and it didn't take long for a pair of e-mails from Albion football players to appear in my inbox.

Both e-mailers were big, tough players for the Britons, but they were also — as I learned — very sensitive. They couldn't believes that I wrote an article basically saying that their fellow students didn't care for them. They swore at me and said I'd never make it in the world.

My words had obviously gotten to them.

And I was just a college paper writer in the middle of nowhere.

I wonder how Bobby Reid felt after "Oklahoman" writer Jenni Carlson ripped the Oklahoma State quarterback in a column last Saturday?

Regardless of the 21-year-old's initial reaction to the column, I'm sure he felt better after his coach, Mike Gundy, absolutely erupted at Carlson in this postgame tirade by now widely popular all over the country.

My first reaction to the video was disgust. Who does this coach think he is to spend the entire press conference after a victory — 49-45 over Texas Tech — belittling a reporter who, to her credit, sat through the entire outburst? At first, Gundy appeared an out-of-control coach of a struggling team (2-2), who likely will not hold onto his job for long. A madman taking out his anger on a media member.

(And he sure did a great job of taking the attention away from his team with the rant).

But after a day to think about it, I can see where Gundy was coming from. While I don't agree with the childish way in which he attacked Carlson (be the adult; talk to her civilly, whether in public or private), he was right to protect his player. Carlson shouldn't have criticized Reid the way she did, using vague references to his behavior on and off the field, not to mention quoting other writers.

College athletes, as I learned first-hand while at Albion, are still really just kids. It's OK to say they performed poorly on the field or to ridicule them for off-the-field incidents that are transparently bad (i.e. getting arrested or busted for underage drinking).

But when it comes to issues such as eating chicken from their mother, not playing due to nicks and bruises, or laughing on the sideline with an assistant coach (all claims Carlson made about Reid), lay off them.

As a recent college graduate, I can tell you that despite the tough-guy countenance many college kids put on, they're still kids growing into their bodies. Many of them, especially Division 1 athletes, are coddled. They don't pay rent bills. They certainly don't work jobs. They're not — despite all the coverage we, the media, grant them — adults.

Proponents of criticizing Division 1 athletes for everything from performing poorly, to sulking on the bench, to making too many visits home to mommy, point to the benefits these athletes receive compared to their fellow college students.

The free tuition, room and board. The athletic tutors. The professors who relax on their grades. The TV exposure. The excessive praise heaped on them by the media and during recruiting. The gifts we know many of them illegally accept to attend their universities.

What they fail to point out, however, is that the athletes don't ask for any of this. They're simply products of the environment in which they become stars. It's the schools and media that plop these athletes on a throne, that place them on the covers of national magazines.

While some athletes bask in the spotlight of big-time college athletics, I'm sure the majority of them wouldn't mind if all the attention was focused elsewhere. Sure, the large crowds pump them up for the big game, but all the outside smoke is unnecessary.

And let us not forget that as much as we glorify Division 1 football and basketball players, the majority of them are not going to play professionally. For every five Michigan football players who are drafted each spring, 20 go on to work in some other field. While football is a huge part of their lives while in Ann Arbor, the majority of them leave the game after four or five years.

The everyday criticism should be reserved for the pros. They know it's coming. They get used to it. Regardless of their age, they become adults on draft day. They're no longer kids once they sign on the bottom line.

I know that must be difficult in Oklahoma, where college sports rule since there are no pro teams (that I know of). The college athletes there probably receive the attention that the Yankees and Mets garner in New York.

But that's no excuse to rip a kid to shreds for such minuscule actions as accepting chicken from his mother.

After all, I, for one — even as a 40-year-old — will always let my mom feed me. It's cheaper than eating out.

Those were the Lions we know

ON FOOTBALL

Anyone familiar with the Detroit Lions franchise and objective enough to curtail the celebrating after two ho-hum victories, knew what was coming Sunday.

Sure, a pair of ESPN analysts — who know football, but haven't been around Detroit for losing season after losing season — picked Detroit to beat Philadelphia Sunday and improve to 3-0. Sure, there were questions about Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb's focus heading into the game due to controversial comments he made about black quarterbacks receiving unfair criticism on HBO.

It's called false hope, people. Anyone who looks themselves in the mirror, knew what was coming Sunday.

A reality check.

Are the Lions better than the 3-13 team of a year ago? Yeah, I think so.

Will they score a lot of points this season? Yeah, probably more than half the teams in the league.

But is their defense the worst in the league? Well, no other team came close to giving up 56 points Sunday (Buffalo was closest, surrendering 38 to a pretty good New England team).

Fifty-six points, people. I don't care if your offense features the nine best receivers in the league paired with Peyton Manning. You're not going to score 40-plus points often, let alone 56 points.

Only the Lions can turn critical Philly fans into soft-bellied lovers of their home team — a feat accomplished for at least one day. Only the Lions can make Kevin Curtis into Marvin Harrison for a day (11 catches for 221 yards and three first-half touchdowns will do that).

Sunday was the start of the downward spiral for Detroit. While every win is "key" in the National Football League, beating Oakland and Minnesota (two of the league's worst) doesn't prove a thing. Now Detroit gets the angry Bears at home (loss) and an improved Washington team on the road (loss) before its bye week.

It's funny how 2-0 can — and will — become 2-3 in the wink of an eye.

The highlight of Detroit's dismal afternoon may have come when first-round draft pick Calvin Johnson made a leaping catch between two defenders with the Lions down 35-7. It was beautiful — except that Johnson had to leave the game with a lower back bruise (if he's out against the Bears, forget about it).

But to make my point, Detroit — with its pretty pass offense run by Jon Kitna, Roy Williams, Johnson & Co. — will reel off some "I can't believe he did that!" plays this year, but there's no substance to the team.

No running game (to the tune of 39 yards Sunday). Poor pass protection (to the tune of nine sacks for 53 yards).

And no pass defense (to the tune of 363 passing yards and four touchdowns by McNabb). Oh, and Detroit's run "D" didn't exactly play well either, giving up 173 yards on 34 carries.

The optimists will say Sunday was only one game that misrepresented what this team's "all about." Coaches might throw out the "we weren't prepared" excuse.

They're both wrong. What do you think the Lions coaches did all week leading up to the game, watched re-runs of "Law & Order?" No, they were preparing for the game. As were the players. These guys are professionals.

Sunday was a dose of reality for die-hard Lions fans (probably the most faithful followers in all of sports). The Eagles exposed the Lions for what they are:
— An exciting (yet predictable) offensive team, which throws long touchdowns (91 yards to Williams) and refuses to run the football (a measly 12 carries).
— A terrible defensive team when the front four is unable to get to opposing quarterbacks.

Sounds like a 5-11, 6-10 team.

Sorry, folks. I'd rather be truthful than mislead.

NFL Week 3 Picks

ON FOOTBALL

Will somebody please help me figure out the Cleveland Browns. I picked — again — 11 of 16 games correctly in Week 2 (yes, 69 percent). And, again, I was very, very wrong about the Browns.

I predicted Cincinnati would destroy Cleveland. Instead, the Browns decided to score 51 points and win.

Hmpfffff.

So who really knows what will happen to Cleveland against 0-2 Oakland today. As Chris Berman says, "That's why they play the game."

Yeah, yeah.

Anyway, I've been wrong on the Browns and Rams both weeks. Take away those mishaps, and I'm averaging 13-for-16.

My Week 3 picks:

At New England 24, Buffalo 13: Will be closer than people think.
At NY Jets 13, Miami 10: Somebody's gotta win this one.
At Philly 34, Detroit 24: Sorry, Lions, the party stops in Philly.
At Pittsburgh 23, San Francisco 20: Battle of 2-0 teams goes to the guys at home.
At Green Bay 21, San Diego 17: Everyone expects San Diego to "respond." But what about the other team?
At Kansas City 17, Minnesota 14: Please refrain from watching.
St. Louis 24, at Tampa Bay 17: I just can't help it. The Rams have to win at some point.
At Baltimore 23, Arizona 10: Matt Leinart gets tortured by Ravens' D.
Indianapolis 28, Houston 16: No Andre Johnson, no chance for Texans.
At Oakland 16, Cleveland 13: I flipped a coin.
Cincinnati 24, at Seattle 20: Big road win — and bounce-back — for Bengals.
At Denver 16, Jacksonville 13: Can you believe it? Another game-winning field goal.
Carolina 21, at Atlanta 10: For some strange reason, I think I may be wrong.
At Washington 21, NY Giants 20: Close NFC East battle. Redskins stay perfect.
At Chicago 23, Dallas 17: Finally Cowboys' offense gets slowed down.
At New Orleans 28, Tennessee 20: Must-win game for Saints at home.

I'm out. Enjoy the Lions finding a way to lose in Philly.

With a few jacks, Indians dispose of Tigers

ON BASEBALL

It didn't dawn on me until Tuesday night just how frustrating watching baseball on television is. Especially when you can't watch with sound.

I was sitting in the office, watching the Tigers-Indians game, a contest Detroit absolutely needed to have any hope of stealing the Central Division.

And the teams looked very evenly matched. Both lineups appeared to be taking healthy swings at the baseball. The bat would meet the ball, sending it — on the TV screen — in the air toward left field.

But here's where the whole not-so-fun-to-watch-baseball-on-TV opinion grows its roots. While the camera caught every batter's swing, where the ball ended up was a guessing game. That is, until a theme became apparent:

— All the fly balls by Cleveland Indians found the stands (four home runs Tuesday; eight during the three-game sweep).

— All the fly balls by Detroit Tigers found the glove of whoever was playing left field for Cleveland (the Tigers hit one lousy home run the whole series).

Therein lies the difference between the soon-to-be division champs (seven and a half games up with 10 to play) and the soon-to-be-fishing/playing golf Tigers (nine games left; need food poisoning to invade Cleveland's locker room).

Cleveland's sweep of the Tigers — by scores of 6-5, 7-4 and 4-2 — was far from dominant. The Tigers led in the latter innings of every game. Cleveland's pitchers were far from unhittable.

But, honestly, Detroit's hitters compared to Cleveland's looked like high schoolers. The Indians were the big, muscular power hitters. The Tigers splayed high flies all over Jacobs Field's grass outfield (and made sure to direct them toward the men in the other team's uniforms).

After watching the Indians' three comeback wins, I'd like to add to the list of reasons for Detroit's demise this year after 2006's amazing World Series run: Injuries, starting pitching, injuries, bottom of the lineup...

"Unclutchness"

Yeah, I realize I just made up a word. Webster's can decide if it wants it, but it sure is applicable when talking Tigers (and I'm not talking about the incredible 5-4 comeback win over Toronto a couple weeks back... seems so long ago now).

Detroit, simply, did not get hits when it needed them. Did not get outs when it was so close to victory.

And now it will not — barring a tsunami engulfing New York — reach the playoffs (hey, at least the Cardinals won't make it back either).

Marcus Thames had one final chance to salvage the season Wednesday afternoon. With the bases loaded and the Tigers down 4-2 in the eighth inning, he stepped to the plate. A single would have tied it. A double or better likely would have won it and postponed — at least until Friday night — the champagne orders in Cleveland.

Watching the game out of the corner of my eye on mute, I saw him connect on a fly ball to left field. For that split second, I turned my full attention to the 30-inch screen in front of me. But then I saw the left fielder camping out to make a routine play.

And I got back to my work.

It was clear the Tigers lacked the one attribute that the Indians displayed all series.

"Clutchness."

Yeah, that's another new one for Webster's.