Revisiting my preseason Field of 65

ON BASKETBALL

My favorite time of year has finally arrived. After witnessing several nail-biters at the ACC Tournament in Atlanta, I can only hope that the NCAA Tournament provides us with similar drama.

Only 59 hours left until the Dance.

But before I immerse myself in the bracket-filling-out process, it's time to see just how wrong I was about this college hoops season before it began.

In November, before the games began, before Dicky V started screaming and well before anyone mentioned "bubbles" without referring to those actual spheres you blow, I tried to look like an "expert" by predicting what 65 teams would dance come, well, now.

Without even looking at my prognostications, I can safely assume that I missed at least 20 teams.

Let's do the ugly math:

(I'm doing it by conference.)

Big East Conference
TITLE PREDICTION:
— Louisville: The Cardinals will hold strong in this absurdly loaded conference, led by four returning starters who came so close against UNC in the Elite Eight a year ago.
AT-LARGE PREDICTIONS:
— Connecticut
— Notre Dame
— Pittsburgh
— Marquette
— Georgetown
— West Virginia
— Syracuse
— Villanova

TRUTH: Back in January, I never would have thought Louisville would win the conference outright. But the Cardinals came through for me. I was money with the at-large predictions outside of Notre Dame and Georgetown. Don't blame myself for either of those picks.

7-of-9
MISSED: 0

Atlantic 10 Conference
TITLE PREDICTION:
— St. Joseph's: The Hawks will take advantage of a depleted Xavier squad to win a tight title race, led by all-conference forward Ahmad Nivins.
AT-LARGE PREDICTIONS:
— Xavier

TRUTH: I grossly overestimated St. Joe's and underestimated Xaiver. The Musketeers are clearly the class of the league with Sean Miller running the show. I also glossed over Dayton. Temple came out of nowhere to win the A-10 tourney.

1-2
MISSED: 2

Metro Atlantic
TITLE PREDICTION:
— Siena: A no-brainer. The Saints knocked off four-seed Vanderbilt in the Big Dance and return the goods to have an even better season this time around.

TRUTH: Straight cash, homey! Niagra was tough, but the Saints are heading back to the Dance.

1-1
MISSED: 0

Ivy League
TITLE PREDICTION:
— Cornell: Yep, expect the Big Red to repeat as conference champs after winning all 14 league games a year ago. It has Ivy League player of the year Louis Dale back to lead the way.

TRUTH: Straight cash, homey! And this wasn't even a contest. The Big Red should have a gum named after it. (Wait, didn't that already happen?)

1-1
MISSED: 0

America East
TITLE PREDICTION:
— Hartford: The Hawks appeared in their first conference title game a year ago, losing to UMBC. Now, with all five starters back, they take the next step to the Big Dance.

TRUTH: Wow, someone throw me under a bus. The Hawks didn't even sniff the title, with Binghamton dancing instead for the first time ever.

0-1
MISSED: 1

Patriot League
TITLE PREDICTION:
— American: Who knows what will happen in this upside-down league. The Eagles were supposed to be at the bottom of the league a year ago, then went out and won it. Now they've got guys like first-team all-league Garrison Carr back. They should win, right?

TRUTH: Well done, sir. The Eagles make it two in a row.

1-1
MISSED: 0

Northeast Conference
TITLE PREDICTION:
— Central Connecticut State: After a one-year hiatus, expect the Blue Devils to come out of the Northeast again thanks to the return of a trio of double-digit scorers.

TRUTH: Not a good showing here, as the Blue Devils (no, not those Blue Devils) didn't even get to the title game. Robert Morris, instead, represents the NEC.

0-1
MISSED: 1

Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC)
TITLE PREDICTION:
— North Carolina: Hey, anything can happen, and don't pencil this in. Duke, Wake Forest and Miami could make runs at the Heels, who will get everyone's best game. But if everyone gets healthy and there are no personal agendas, there's no stopping the country's consensus No. 1.

AT-LARGE PREDICTIONS:
— Wake Forest
— Duke
— Miami
— Virginia Tech
— Clemson

TRUTH: Miami largely underachieved with everybody back. So did Virginia Tech. Florida State came out of the woodwork to surprise everybody. I shouldn't have underestimated B.C. with Al Skinner running the show and Tyrese Rice back. Maryland just snuck in the back door. Still, should have done better with the league I cover.

4-6
MISSED: 3

MEAC
TITLE PREDICTION:
— South Carolina State: I know it's a risky pick choosing a 13-20 team to turn things around and win its league tourney, but the Bulldogs return three double-digit scorers plus College of Charleston transfer Josh Jackson. Make me proud, Bulldogs

TRUTH: Suffice to say, my prediction didn't work out. Instead, Morgan State is dancing. Lesson: never pick a 13-20 team from a small conference to turn it around.

0-1
MISSED: 1

CAA
TITLE PREDICTION:
— Virginia Commonwealth: Rarely do you see a team from a conference such as the CAA face such great pressure to reach the NCAA Tournament, but after being left out of the NCAAs and the NIT despite a 24-8 record, Eric Maynor won't let the Rams be on the outside again.

TRUTH: Bingo. Maynor led the way, and look for a possible upset of UCLA in the first round.

1-1
MISSED: 0

Big South
TITLE PREDICTION:
— VMI: I wanted to pick Winthrop to advance to the Big Dance for a sixth straight season, but with nobody back from their core, the Eagles simply don't have the makeup. So I'm going with the Keydets, who not only have a cool name but led the nation in scoring.

TRUTH: Not too disappointed here. VMI made the final, losing to Radford. At least I stayed away from the Eagles, who were awful.

0-1
MISSED: 1

Southern Conference
TITLE PREDICTION:
— Davidson: Every once in a while, it's nice to get a pick so obvious, I'd bet my house on it (if I had a house). Barring a bad injury to Stephon Curry, the Wildcats will win out in the league.

TRUTH: Yeah, me and everybody else were wrong. What can I say? Chattanooga pulled a shocker.

0-1
MISSED: 1

Southeastern (SEC)
TITLE PREDICTION:
— Florida: Anyone who saw how inspired the Gators, revved up by Billy Donovan's tongue-lashing, played in the NIT knows that they'll be a much-improved team. Nick Calathes will lead the way to the title in a down year for the SEC.
AT-LARGE PREDICTIONS:
— Tennessee
— Kentucky
— LSU
— South Carolina
— Alabama

TRUTH: Oh, boy. This is rough. The league was atrocious, only getting three teams, and I even missed one of those squads. I should have known, right, that Kentucky would miss the Dance for the first time in 583 years?

2-6
MISSED: 1

Ohio Valley Conference
TITLE PREDICTION:
— Tennessee-Martin: I'm basing this prediction on the ability of one man — Lester Hudson. The All-America candidate passed up the NBA to return, and he's the only NCAA player to record a quadruple-double.

TRUTH: Not too upset with myself here. Hudson's squad got upset and Morehead State ending up shocking the universe. What's a man to do?

0-1
MISSED: 1

Sun Belt
TITLE PREDICTION:
— South Alabama: The Jaguars' 26-7 record was good enough to get them an at-large berth in the tournament, a rarity for a team from such a low-profile league. This year, they'll have to win the conference tournament to go dancing, and they have enough talent to do just that.

TRUTH: Again, I came close. But the Jags simply weren't as good as Western Kentucky (and didn't have near the at-large season of a year ago). This is a winning business. I didn't win here.

0-1
MISSED: 1

Atlantic Sun
TITLE PREDICTION:
— Belmont: I was in Washington when the Bruins came within a basket of knocking off No. 2 seed Duke. Now, with almost everybody back, they'll make their fourth straight tournament appearance and, no doubt, scare another high seed.

TRUTH: Ouchie. Belmont couldn't get it done for a fourth straight year and it'll be East Tennessee State dancing (at least for a couple days).

0-1
MISSED: 1

Big Ten
TITLE PREDICTION:
— Purdue: The safe pick is to go with Tom Izzo's team in East Lansing, but I love what the Boilermakers have coming back, which is everybody. This team — and I emphasize team, because everyone contributes — won't settle for anything less than a Big Ten title.
AT-LARGE PREDICTIONS:
— Michigan State
— Wisconsin

TRUTH: All I can say is, "Wow. I am an idiot." I mean, seriously. This dude picked three teams. The Big Ten placed seven! Yes, Michigan was a surprise. But leaving out Illinois and Ohio State, both well-coached teams with recent tournament success, was unacceptable. And the same can be said of leaving out Tubby Smith and Minnesota.

3-3
MISSED: 4

Horizon League
TITLE PREDICTION:
— Wright State: It looks like Butler's strong run will end — at least for a year — with all of its key cogs off in the real world. That leaves the door open for the Raiders, who return all-league guard Vaughn Duggins.

TRUTH: Like with Xavier, I underestimated a mid-major that has really established itself as an annual tournament team. That's Butler, which received an at-large berth after getting beaten by Cleveland State in the title game.

0-1
MISSED: 2

Summit League
TITLE PREDICTION:
— Oakland: I picked the Grizzlies a year ago ... and they let me down. I'll give them one more chance. They return all of their key players, and Oral Roberts — winners of three straight titles — has a depleted roster.

TRUTH: No embarrassment here. The Grizzlies were just minutes away from beating North Dakota State and getting the invite. But those Bison are gritty champions. That's what -7 degree weather will do for ya.

0-1
MISSED: 1

Mid-American (MAC)
TITLE PREDICTION:
— Kent State: When I realized that the Golden Flashes have won at least 20 games in each of the last 10 seasons, I jumped on the bandwagon. With MAC player of the year Al Fisher returning, I'm certainly not jumping off.

TRUTH: This league became a ridiculous crapshoot at the end, with Akron getting in. Who could have known? Kent State's still the most consistent MAC program.

0-1
MISSED: 1

Conference USA
TITLE PREDICTION:
— Memphis: The Tigers won't be as dominant as a year ago, but don't fool yourself — they're still, easily, the best team in this conference. It will be interesting to see who develops into the team's leader.
AT-LARGE PREDICTION:
— UAB

TRUTH: This had to be the most boring league, because no one could touch Memphis. And no one else was close to deserving of an NCAA bid. Snooze.

1-2
MISSED: 0

Big 12
TITLE PREDICTION:
— Texas: For the second straight year, the Longhorns lost an All-American, this time point guard D.J. Augustin. But with everyone else back, and Kansas down after losing almost every key player, the Longhorns have the makeup of a conference champion.
AT-LARGE PREDICTIONS:
Big 12 (4)
— Oklahoma
— Baylor
— Kansas
— Missouri

TRUTH: Well, at least Texas made the tournament. That would have been the ultimate red-cheeks moment: picking a major-conference champion that ends up in the NIT. Baylor finally played to its potential in the Big 12 tourney — way too late for a bid. Texas A&M and Oklahoma State made late charges. No red cheeks there.

4-5
MISSED: 2

Missouri Valley
TITLE PREDICTION:
— Creighton: In a mid-major conference that is feeling the losses of coaches to bigger programs and the graduations of its top players, the Bluejays return seven of their top nine guys and should ascend back to the top of the standings.

TRUTH: Nothing here that should make me bang my head against the desk. Creighton was on the bubble despite getting cremated in the tourney's semifinals. Northern Iowa is dancing. Life goes on.

0-1
MISSED: 1

Southland Conference
TITLE PREDICTION:
— Stephen F. Austin: Expect another stellar season from the Lumberjacks, who finished 26-6 but faltered in the league tournament. They bring back six of their top seven scorers.

TRUTH: Straight cash, homey!

1-1
MISSED: 0

SWAC
TITLE PREDICTION:
— Alabama State: The Hornets came out of nowhere to finish 20-11 and receive an NIT invitation. Now, with SWAC player of the year Andrew Hayles leading the way, there are higher expectations that will be achieved.

TRUTH: Straight cash, homey!

1-1
MISSED: 0

Big Sky
TITLE PREDICTION:
— Portland State: I'm expecting league MVP Jeremiah Dominguez to lead the Vikings to their second consecutive Big Dance appearance (and also just the school's second appearance ... ever).

TRUTH: For 3 (in a row)????? Onions!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

1-1
MISSED: 0

WAC
TITLE PREDICTION:
— Nevada: The Wolf Pack figure to remain the class of the league despite losing another pair of standout performers. That's because they reeled in McDonald's All-American Luke Babbit and bring back a pair of double-digit scorers.

TRUTH: And the fun stops here. The Utah State program should get some more love (talking to myself). In fact, I could see it knocking off Marquette in the first round.

0-1
MISSED: 1

Mountain West
TITLE PREDICTION:
— UNLV: This league should be absolutely loaded, and the Rebels should lead the way thanks to a trio of returning seniors, including all-league guard Wink Adams.
AT-LARGE PREDICTIONS:
— San Diego State
— New Mexico

TRUTH: Wow, I really bombed here. Obviously, I need to educate myself on the MWC. It was loaded — I was right about that. But none of the three I predicted made it, with Utah and BYU in the field of 65. Ouch.

0-3
MISSED: 2

Pac 10
TITLE PREDICTION:
— UCLA: What's new? Another season, another Pac-10 title for the Bruins. They might get a challenge from in-city rival USC, but senior point guard Darren Collison will keep them on the right path.
AT-LARGE PREDICTIONS:
Pac 10 (4)
— USC
— Arizona State
— Washington State
— Washington

TRUTH: I don't blame myself for picking the Bruins to win another one. They have, after all, done that Final Four thing the past three seasons. USC saved my prediction in the conference tournament. Cal came out of nowhere to make it, and Arizona probably shouldn't have made it.

4-5
MISSED: 2

Big West
TITLE PREDICTION:
— Cal State Northridge: In a tough conference to predict, the Matadors — great name, by the way — return a pair of double-digit scorers plus the league's leading assists man in Josh Jenkins.

TRUTH: One final ... straight cash, homey!

1-1
MISSED: 0

West Coast
TITLE PREDICTION:
— Gonzaga: I don't know if the Zags have entered a season with heavier expectations. They'll certainly be challenged by Patrick Mills and St. Mary's, but with WCC player of the year Jeremy Pargo, not to mention Mr. Great Potential Austin Day, back in the mix, (and I'm not even mentioning other key returnees), this team is destined for great things.
AT-LARGE PREDICTIONS:
— St. Mary's
— San Diego

TRUTH: First off, the bad. It was silly to think this league could put three teams in for a second straight year. San Diego won't be playing anywhere in the postseason (I guess the beach will have to do). But St. Mary's was straddling the bubble, so I have no qualms about picking the Gaels. The Zags are playing extremely well right now.

1-3
MISSED: 0

OK, let's tally them up (and likely weep).

For comparisons sake, last season — my first time covering college hoops — I predicted 40 of the 65 correctly. Hopefully, I did that this time around.

And...

Not good. I PICKED JUST 35 RIGHT, struggling mightily with most of the major conferences (Big Ten, SEC, ACC). My 0-for-3 showing in the MWC was also a killer.

Obviously, I need to pay more attention to the big boys instead of studying Big Sky game tapes during all my free time.

Speaking of that, it's time to prepare for something I've been much better at recently. Another predicting exercise.

I believe there's a tournament coming up...